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    Financial Regulation Outlook. September 2015

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    This month we focus on: FSB second annual report, Turkey's regulatory framework, macroprudential policy in the banking sector, business model analysis and governance, MREL and TLAC and payment systems.

    Available in English

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    Portugal | The growth rate of the economy stabilises

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    The MICA-BBVA model forecasts growth of 0.4% for the third quarter, similar to the second quarter data released in August, which was worse than we expected. Growth in 2015 will be below 2%. Domestic demand will remain the main engine of growth, while supporting external demand weakens

    Units:
    Geographies:Europe Portugal
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    U.S. | Commercial Banking after the Crisis

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    The banking industry’s balance sheet is significantly transformed as a result of the crisis. Returns on assets and equity have stabilized at lower levels than before the crisis. We expect steady growth in deposits and loans over the next four years. While the industry’s financial performance could improve, it will not be dramatic.

    Geographies:USA

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    U.S. | Heightened Bond Liquidity Risk is the New Normal

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    Regulations and high frequency trading are the culprits of new liquidity dynamics. Banks’ role as market-makers is challenged by buy-side investors. Fed normalization will ease but not eliminate existing limitations on liquidity. E-trading distorts reliability of common liquidity measures

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    ECB strikes a dovish tone

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    The Staff revised downwards its projections for growth and inflation, driven by lower external demand. Moreover, renewed downside risks have emerged. The ECB takes advantage of the flexibility of the APP programme by increasing the initial issue share limit of 25% to 33%, and hints at further willingness to act. There was no discussion on expanding the APP

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    Ukraine: Decentralisation threatens future instability

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    Violent clashes between nationalists and the police erupted in Kiev after the approval of constitutional changes to decentralise the country and give more autonomy in rebel-held eastern regions. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian debt restructuring deal with private creditors might not be enough to eliminate economic concerns. Russia will try to exploit the climate of uncertainty.

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    A brief update after market’s turmoil in August

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    A new outbreak of high volatility and risk aversion has rattled markets during the summer, especially Emerging Markets (EM), as investors have been relocating their positions towards safe-haven assets.

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    Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest August Update

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    ISIS intensified its operations in the Middle East and North Africa during August, protecting its core territory and taking advantage of “failed” states’ fragilities. Separatists and the Ukrainian forces launched important attacks in eastern Ukraine, expanding their offensive operations. The Houthis continued losing ground in Yemen. The refugee crisis increased in Europe.

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    Indonesia | Traversing turbulent times in the digital era

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    Growth woes for Indonesia have increased in the wake of concerns over a sharper than expected slowdown in China. The uncertain macro outlook will impact Indonesian banking sector’s ongoing digital transformation. This presentation featured as part of the key note address at the Asian Banker Conference, which took place in Jakarta, Indonesia on August 27.

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    Latin America Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

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    Growth will be low in LatAm in 2015 and 2016, at 0.2% and 1.1% respectively, below its potential (2.7%). Inflation is holding up, above central bank targets. All in all, the dilemmas are growing for central banks, except in Mexico

    Geographies:Latin America

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Mexico Real Estate Outlook First Half 2015

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    Housing prices are reflecting certain supply-side components more sharply, although demand fundamentals remain key. Families’ long-term expectations really do help us to gain a better insight into the dynamics of mortgage loan demand. Financial soundness has become a core theme within Infonavit’s strategy for 2015-19

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    Geographies:Mexico

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Iraq: On the brink of a political crisis favoring ISIS

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    Iraq is facing massive protests against corruption and the lack of public services since the end of July. Although most of them remained peaceful, they are still alive in Baghdad, Najaf, Basra and other southern cities. The PM al-Abadi has proposed a reform agenda. Some Shi’a figures are using the crisis to generate unrest and restore a presidential system led by PM Maliki

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    Spain Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

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    The speed of the Spanish economy's recovery peaked in the first half of 2015, although the likelihood of a slowdown in economic growth has incresed in the second semester. The structural changes observed in the world economy and announced innovations in economic policy could offset the lower momentum of the economy.

    Units:
    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook

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    In August, the price of crude oil dropped to its lowest level since March 2009 as the oil supply glut continues. Market sentiment is on the downside as indicated by the decline in futures prices. Last month, the total active rig count fell to its lowest level since January 2003; we expect a steady decline in crude oil production by early 2016

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    United States Economic Outlook Third Quarter 2015

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    Favorable outlook for developed markets but additional downside risks for growth in emerging markets, with a particular focus on China. First federal funds rate hike expected in September, but global pressures could delay liftoff until December. Lingering uncertainties on top of the slow pace of growth in 1Q15 have forced us to revised down 2015 growth from 2.9% to 2.5%

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    FOMC Minutes: July 28th – 29th Meeting

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    Committee in Preparation Talks for Impending First Rate Hike. Most FOMC members view downward pressures on inflation as transitory, but risks to the inflation outlook may outweigh labor market improvement for some doves. Global risks have diminished for the short-term & are thus unlikely to delay the first rate hike, though they may impact the future pace of rate increases

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Chile | Little room for manoeuvre: public expenditure growth in 2016 to be around 4.6%

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    The government released the structural variables for the 2016 Budget Law: potential GDP and long-term price of copper. As expected, both were revised downwards. With no full information, but assuming the target of a structural balance of -0.8% of GDP, we estimate a public expenditure growth in 2016 of 4.6%.

    Units:
    Geographies:Chile

    Available in Spanish

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    Brazil Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

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    We forecast GDP to drop 1.5% this year and to expand only 0.5% next year. The long-term potential growth of the Brazilian economy is around 2.2%, lower than previously estimated. The uncertainty about the fiscal adjustment, largely due to the political turmoil, undermines the prospects of a recovery in activity and leaves Brazil on the verge of losing its investment grade.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Measuring Latin America’s export dependency on China

    Document Number 15/26

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    In this paper we deploy an export dependency index to identify the sectors and countries in Latin America which are most exposed to fluctuations in Chinese demand.

    Units:
    Geographies:Asia Latin America

    Available in English

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    Monitoring ECB balance sheet expansion (July 2015)

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    In July, the purchase programme involving both public and private assets slightly surpassed the stated monthly target of EUR60bn, with EUR61.3bn of assets acquired and still a clear bias in favour of purchasing public bonds (80%). There was no let-up in purchasing in the month as a result of a summer lull in issuance, as some members of the ECB had been expecting.

    Available in Spanish, English

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