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    U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook May 2016

    By

    The Fed’s April meeting minutes and the May Fedspeak lineup of Federal Reserve Board and Regional Bank Presidents have embraced clarity, signaling their inclination towards a summer rate hike

    Geographies:USA

    Available in English

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    Argentina Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2016

    By , , , , ,

    Argentina came out of default in May following rapid progress on the new government’s programme of reforms. The economy will contract by 0.4% in 2016 but will start growing again by more than 3% a year from 2017 on. The government is focusing on monetary policy, but inflation will not start to fall until the second half of 2016

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Available in English

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    Presentation “Latin America Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2016″

    By

    The global outlook has improved. but global growth will continue to be low. Latam GDP will shrink -1.1% in 2016 and recover to 1.7% in 2017. The positive effect of the recent recovery of commodity prices will be offset by lower public expenditure.

    Geographies:Latin America

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Mexico | Certainty in employment figures, but not its characteristics

    By ,

    Over the past 10 years the number of employed persons has increased from 41.4 million at the beginning of 2005 to more than 51 million at the end of 2015; with ups and downs mainly at the end of 2008 and first half of 2009. Before this period, the unemployment rate remained below 4% of the economically active population and then exceed 6% during the economic crisis of 2009

    Units:
    Geographies:Mexico

    Available in Spanish

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    Philippines | Is Duterte ready to clear high bar?

    By ,

    Philippines President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has a high bar to clear as he takes on the reform mantle from Benigno Aquino III, who was instrumental in delivering impressive economic performance despite a tough external environment. In this watch, we examine the state of Philippines economy so as to ascertain key macroeconomic challenges facing the new administration.

    Units:
    Geographies:Asia China India

    Available in English

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    Castile and Leon Economic Outlook 2016

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    The economy of Castile and Leon will grow about 2.4% both in 2016 as well as in 2017, creating around 30,000 new jobs during this two-year period, within an environment of greater uncertainty. Internal demand drives the recovery, supported by exports, in particular the car manufacturing sector. Creating more and better employment continues to be the challenge.

    Units:

    Available in Spanish

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    Spain Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2016

    By

    The Spanish economy’s recent evolution and the balance of elements that support its recovery confirm that growth will remain strong, at around 2.7%, during the present biennium. However, the picture is not exempt from risk with the failure to meet fiscal goals and economic policy uncertainty standing out at a domestic level.

    Units:
    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Chile Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2016

    By , , , ,

    In Chile, we adjusted downwards our growth projection for 2017 due to materialisation of risks that moderate the slope of the recovery. Inflation will settle at 3% in 2H16 and will fluctuate below that level in the base scenario without changes in the central bank’s key interest rate.

    Units:
    Geographies:Latin America Chile

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Long and short-run components in explanatory variables and different panel-data estimates

    Document Number 16/10

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    We investigate the idea that when we separate an explanatory variable into its “between” and “within” variations we could be roughly decomposing it into a structural (long-term) and a cyclical component respectively, and this could translate into different Between and Within estimates in panel data.

    Geographies:Global
    Topics:Research

    Available in English

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    Peru Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2016

    By , , , , ,

    We continue anticipating that the Peruvian economy will grow 3.6% in 2016 and 4.3% in the following year. The main drivers of this growth will be increased mining production, particularly of copper due to major mines coming on-stream, and increased public and private sector capital expenditure on infrastructure projects.

    Units:
    Geographies:Peru

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Flows & Assets Report: Flow reallocation back to EM. Second Quarter 2016

    By , , , , ,

    Global risk aversion receded in Q1 2016 in a context of still volatile markets. The return of risk appetite was attributable to stabilization signs in China, the rebound in oil prices and the continued support of Developed Markets' central banks.

    Available in English

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    ECB Minutes: 21 April meeting

    By ,

    The minutes confirmed that the GC was unanimous in its commitment to deliver on its mandate. The GC agreed that there was no need to consider any change in its current monetary policy stance. The ECB strongly reiterated the need for other policy areas to contribute to euro area economic recovery

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | FOMC Minutes Leave the Door Open for a June Rate Increase

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    Weak 1Q16 activity supported the dovish dominance at April’s meeting. Hawkish FOMC members argue that further delays could be confusing to the public in regards to their data-dependent strategy and may ultimately hurt their credibility. Fed communication will continue to signal the possibility of a June move, helping to better align market expectations along the way.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Setting a limit to leverage in banking

    By

    The global leverage ratio framework is to be finalized in 2016, in order to be implemented in 2018, and will help preventing excessive indebtedness in the banking sector to promote financial stability. Banks will have to consider both risk-sensitive and non-risk-sensitive minimum capital requirements when making decisions

    Available in English

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    Tracking Financial Inclusion: The Multidimensional Financial Inclusion MIFI

    By ,

    The Multidimensional Index for Financial Inclusion (MIFI) can be used to compare levels of financial inclusion across economies and over time.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Turkey Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2016

    By ,

    The Economic activity continues to be resilient. Better inflation data prompts a new stance of monetary policy. The current account adjustment continuesand deficit is now mostly structural. Uncertainty about global markets, politics and geopolitics persist.

    Available in English

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    Portugal | The forecast of a moderate recovery remains

    By ,

    The weakness of the recovery has extended to the beginning of the year because of the deterioration in some external factors. Despite the economy performing slightly worse than expected, the growth forecast for 2016-17, of 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, remains unchanged, thanks to a gradual improvement in external demand, to less internal uncertainty and to new ECB measures.

    Units:
    Geographies:Europe Portugal
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    U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook

    By ,

    Although auto sales peaked in late 2015, they continue to be supported by sound economic conditions. Low gasoline prices & efficiency improvements have diverted demand towards light-trucks & away from cars. A record high average vehicle age encourages replacements & supports sales. Leasing remains an increasingly preferred form of financing, especially for luxury vehicles

    Available in English

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    Colombia Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2016

    By , , , ,

    Global growth is still weak and dependent on the Chinese economy. Internal demand continues to shrink with an additional slowdown in consumer spending. The industrial sector has reacted, taking advantage of exchange rate to replace imports. Colombian growth will be slower in the medium term but will also be more sustainable and ensured by a more balanced economic structure

    Units:
    Geographies:Colombia

    Available in Spanish, English

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