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    Banking Outlook. September 2016

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    1. Trends and developments in the Spanish banking sector 2. Real estate exposure of the Spanish banking system 3. Analysis of impaired assets in Europe 4. European stress test: large differences by country 5. Implementation and effects of the regulatory reform 6. Open banking

    Geographies:Spain Europe
    Topics:Banks

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Digital Context Pacific Alliance. September 2016

    By

    The Pacific Alliance (PA) has a high position regarding Internet contents compared to LATAM. However, it has an improvement margin in terms of Internet affordability. Chile registers an advantageous position in all dimensions of the digitization index among the PA members. The home is the main place to access the Internet, although its importance varies between countries.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | Weekly podcast: FOMC decision, personal income and consumption

    By

    Weekly economic update focusing on the data to be released the week of September 26, 2016. Special topic: FOMC September meeting decision

    Geographies:USA

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    Castile-La Mancha Economic Outlook

    By

    The economy of Castile-La Mancha will grow about 3.3% in 2016, but will slow to a 2.4% in 2017, creating around 42,000 new jobs during this two-year period. Internal demand drives the recovery, supported by exports, which are gaining momentum. Creating more and better employment continues to be the challenge.

    Available in Spanish

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    FOMC Statement: September 20-21th Meeting

    By

    Despite uptick in number of dissenters FOMC remains on course for December. FOMC postpones rate hike, but opens door for increases in 2016. Projections and dissents underlie growing divergence of opinions of “new normal”. Minutes will shed light on pace of normalization, but December remains target for next hike

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    South China Sea: Stable but tenacious waters

    By , ,

    It’s been over two months since The Hague ruled that China does not have historic rights to the South China Sea. Tensions will continue to escalate further before a bilateral agreement is met, as other players step into the scene. Upside risks remain, particularly in neighboring countries.

    Available in English

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    Peru Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

    By , , , , ,

    We stand by our GDP growth forecasts for the Peruvian economy of 3.6% in 2016 and 4.3% in 2017. Higher mining production and the implementation of large-scale infrastructure works will shore up the growth in GDP over the next few quarters.

    Units:
    Geographies:Latin America Peru

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Eurozone | Economic Watch – September

    By , , ,

    Economic recovery should continue in 3Q16 but at slower pace. Our estimates suggest quarterly GDP growth to decelerate slightly to +0.2% QoQ in 3Q16 -after a +0.3% QoQ figure in 2Q16-, in the back of still weak investment and lower contribution from net exports. Private consumption should remain as the main driver for GDP growth.

    Units:
    Geographies:Europe

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Mexico | Our take on the MXN

    By ,

    The MXN’s rough ride may well calm somewhat after the US election, but the external balance points to continued underperformance in 2017

    Units:
    Geographies:Mexico

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Rising Libor is due to repricing and not distress

    By ,

    Libor rate rise pushed by regulation driven structural changes in the U.S. money market. The spill-over effects in other regions have not been huge. However, hereinafter, international markets have to get used to more expensive financing in USD, which poses an additional risk for bank´s profitability in the current context of ultra-low interest rates

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | Weekly podcast: Housing market trends, starts and sales

    By

    Weekly economic update focusing on the data to be released the week of September 19, 2016. Special topic: Overall housing market trends

    Geographies:USA

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    Colombia | The Colombian economy is adjusting in a challenging scenario

    By

    Short presentation for the webinar Agro-industry perspectives in Colombia. Short and medium term GDP growth. inflation, exchange rate, leading economic sectors.

    Units:
    Geographies:Colombia

    Available in Spanish

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    Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. September 2016

    By , , , , , ,

    The most recent inflation report from the Bank of Mexico notes that savings and external financing have slowed, in favour of more dynamic domestic sources. Mexico Bank indicators show the recovery of the credit card portfolio, although with less dynamism than other segments of consumer credit. Bank of Mexico updates auto loan indicators

    Units:
    Geographies:Mexico
    Topics:Banks

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Presentation "Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2016"

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    In Spain, positive bias is confirmed for 2016, but new elements in the scenario compel to reduce 2017 growth foresight.

    Units:
    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    China | Economic activities stopped dropping but growth headwinds are still ahead

    By

    China’s August activity indicators came out today, most of which are better than the market expectations and the previous month readings. Our MICA model forecast for Q3 GDP is 6.7%. Altogether, economic activities seems reverting from the significant drop of the previous month, but growth headwinds are still ahead, as investment remains a main drag on growth.

    Available in English

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    Spain | The economy maintains its cruising speed in Q3, although risks remain

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    The trend in the variables observed indicates that the recovery of the Spanish economy is continuing on from the start of the second half-year. With nearly 50% of the information available for 3Q16, the MICA-BBVA1 model estimates that quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) could string together five consecutive quarters at the level of 0.8%.

    Units:
    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | Weekly podcast: Millennials, inflation and retail sales

    By

    Weekly economic update focusing on the data to be released the week of September 12, 2016. Special topic: Millennials

    Geographies:USA

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    ECB kept monetary policy stance unchanged

    By , ,

    The ECB kept rates unchanged and reaffirmed the plan to run the APP to March 2017 or beyond if needed. The GC did not discuss any measures (including an extension of the APP). The GC tasked the relevant committees to evaluate the options that ensure a smooth implementation of its purchase programme. The Staff barely changed its projections over the forecast horizon

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Colombia: Digital Context

    By ,

    Colombia occupies an important position in terms of digital content among Latin American countries. The proportion of people using the Internet daily has increased considerably since 2014. Cost is considered the main constraint on Internet access, although this perception is weaker among young people.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Colombia Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

    By , , , ,

    A gradual and well-ordered slowdown of the economy continues, reducing the macroeconomic imbalances. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities have diminished, though they have not disappeared. Market volatility in the wake of Brexit was offset by an expected more accommodating tone on the part of developed economies' central banks.

    Units:
    Geographies:Colombia

    Available in Spanish, English

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