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    Chile Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

    By , , , ,

    We adjusted downwards our GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 1.8%, following the materialisation of external and internal risks. Currency appreciation has been excessive, making recovery difficult and with a potential risk of generating significant disinflationary pressures. We foresee two cuts in the MPR in the next 12 months. The first would occur in 4Q16.

    Units:
    Geographies:Latin America Chile

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | Oil Price Outlook (August 2016)

    By , ,

    The downward trend experienced after February was interrupted by concerns on high stocks of refined products. Recently, renewed market expectations of an output deal in September have brought prices up again. However, we believe that a production deal has a low probability of success. We expect a gradual increase in prices after 2016, with risks tilted to the downside.

    Available in English

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    Argentina Economic Outlook Third Quarter 2016

    By , , , , ,

    Argentina's GDP will fall 1% this year, but the impact of changing economic policies will be evident in 2017 with growth of 3.2% annually. Inflation is falling more slowly than expected. Gradual devaluation of the peso in 2H16 due to seasonal factors and the cut in interest rates, although the Central Bank will deal swiftly with any sudden movements

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S.| Weekly Economic Update, August 19 2016

    By ,

    An analysis of next week's economic indicators including housing market and 2Q GDP. Special topic: industry outlook and elections.

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    Analyzing the impact of monetary policy on financial markets in Chile

    Document Number 16/14

    By , ,

    During the past few years, monetary policy communication has become a hot topic in as far as it seems to have become a very relevant way for central banks to guide markets, beyond actual monetary policy decisions.

    Available in English

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    U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook

    By ,

    In July, auto sales reached their highest levels since Oct. 2015. Demand continues to be biased towards light-trucks and away from cars. The recent upward trend in oil and gas prices has eased, which could incentivize more miles driven. Auto lending remains robust; leasing remains an increasingly preferred form of financing, especially for luxury vehicles.

    Available in English

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    U.S. | The future of branches

    By

    Branches are still relevant for acquiring deposits and delivering retail products and services. The national network of branches is close to optimal, thus the marginal returns from adding new branches are small. The decrease in the number of branches relative to real deposits and population since 2007 reflects less branch-intensive banking, which is likely to continue

    Geographies:USA
    Topics:Banks

    Available in Spanish, English

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    China Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

    By ,

    Despite the authorities have fine-tuned the pace of monetary easing over the concerns of the potential financial risks, growth seems still resilient in Q2 as Q2 GDP maintained at the same growth rate as the previous quarter. We maintain our 2016 full-year projection at 6.4% and 2017 at 5.8%. Downside risks still hover around while easing measures are set to continue.

    Available in English

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    U.S. | Weekly podcast: Inflation and housing starts

    By

    Weekly economic update focusing on the data to be released the week of August 15, 2016

    Geographies:USA

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    Ukraine: new Russian military escalation in Crimea

    By , ,

    Tensions heightened in Crimea between Russia and Ukraine to their most serious level since Russia annexed it from Ukraine in 2014 after an alleged attempt of Ukrainian security forces to enter Crimea took place last 7th August. In response, Russia rapidly escalated its military buildup on Ukraine's borders. The likelihood of a renewed open conflict is increasing rapidly.

    Units:
    Geographies:Asia China

    Available in English

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    Latin America Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

    By

    Even though the region’s activity still looks weak, some recovery in growth can be discerned, especially towards the second part of this year. 2016 will still be a year of adjustment, with a fall in activity of 0.9%, making five years of slowdown and three of growth below that of OECD countries.

    Geographies:Latin America

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. Industry Outlook under Electoral Scenarios

    By

    Regardless of who wins the presidential election, construction may be the most benefited industry. The outlook for healthcare and energy differs the most between candidates. Export- and import-dependent industries may struggled regardless of who wins the election

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Spain Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

    By

    The Spanish economy will grow at around 3.1% in 2016, confirming the biases that were advanced three months ago. Nevertheless, external sector deterioration, which is primarily linked to brexit, moderates the expected growth for 2017 down to 2.3%. This increasing vulnerability impels to reduce the uncertainty over the economic policy to be implemented in the coming years.

    Units:
    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Eurozone | Brexit impact should be bounded, higher political and geopolitical risks

    By , , , ,

    Economic recovery continues at a moderate pace after Brexit, that should be limited through both trade and confidence channel. The ECB is ready to take further measures, likely an extension until September 2017 and a fine-tuning of the QE programme. We maintain our growth forecast at 1.6% in 2016 and revise downwards to 1.5% in 2017.

    Units:
    Geographies:Europe

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | The Generational Opportunity Index: the state of Millennials

    By ,

    In terms of economic opportunity, Millennials still lagging other generations. Minneapolis, Des Moines, Omaha and Denver are top-ranked cities that will continue to attract younger generations. To enjoy similar standards of living at comparable life-cycle phases, Millennials will need stronger economic growth

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Presentation “Brazil Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016″

    By

    The worst in terms of activity growth is probably already over, but the cyclical recovery will be slow as structural factors (such as fiscal deterioration) will continue to weigh negatively. We continue to expect GDP to grow by 0.9% in 2017 after having contracted 3.8% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System

    By , , , , ,

    INEGI publishes results of the first National Survey on Productivity and Competitiveness of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises 2015. FUNDEF publishes paper on financing of major companies. Signs of a more accommodative stance lasting longer in developed countries favoured financial markets in July

    Units:
    Geographies:Mexico
    Topics:Banks

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Presentation “Latin America Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016″

    By

    The global outlook has improved slightly, especially in emerging Asia. Slowdown of Latam GDP will end in 2016 (-0.9%) in 2016, with a gradual recovery in 2017 (1.8%). Inflation, though still high in South America, continues to abate in most countries. Central banks adopt a more dovish bias, except in Colombia and Mexico.

    Geographies:Latin America

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Banking globalisation: How is regulation impacting on global banks?

    By , ,

    Most global banks, with certain exceptions, are retrenching from some geographical regions and/or business lines. Factors such as changes in strategy, business models, profitability, efficient allocation of scarce resources, political and social instability or new technologies explain this process. But in our view there is one determining factor: regulation.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | Weekly podcast: Retail sales and productivity

    By

    Weekly economic update focusing on the data to be released the week of August 8, 2016

    Geographies:USA

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