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Alejandro Faci

Latest Publications

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LatAm Daily | Chile’s inflation expectations rise as currency depreciates

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Inflation expectations rose 0.4% MoM in August in line with our estimate, as traders expect the currency weakening and hovering around USDCLP 710. However, long-term expectations remained anchored to the central bank’s target. Meanwhile, traders expect a 25bp increase in interest rates. Today, Mexico’s trade balance should show a deficit of USD1,590mn.

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LatAm Daily | Brazil’s GDP to be released on Friday

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This week we will be watching out for Brazil’s 2Q15 GDP, due out on Friday, together with the Minutes of the last central bank meeting in Chile. Finally, in Mexico, we also have the trade balance, the unemployment rate and the YtD budget balance at the end of the week.

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LatAm Daily | Colombia’s business confidence in line with slowdown in 2H15 domestic demand

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July’s confidence index fell as manufacturers worried about production three months ahead, although inventory and orders figures improved. Mexico’s inflation resumed a downward trend in the first fortnight of August, indicating a limited pass-through from the exchange rate. In our view the year-end consensus forecast is high and should gradually converge with our estimate

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LatAm Daily | Colombian BanRep kept rates on hold in split decision

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August inflation in Brazil decelerated slightly, in line with consensus and shoring up COPOM’s strategy. Meanwhile, Peru’s central bank reduced its cap on FX derivative operations by USD250mn to USD1bn, to lessen depreciation pressures.

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LatAm Daily | Mexico’s 2Q15 GDP growth slightly above consensus

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GDP grew 0.5% QoQ in 2Q15. The services sector (+0.9%) benefited from government expenditure during the elections, but growth was dragged by the primary sector (-1.6%), and could decelerate further if there is no improvement in the primary and secondary sectors. Brazil's jobless rate topped consensus implying that private consumption may fall in 3Q15.

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LatAm Daily | Confidence indicator in Colombia confirmed slowdown in private consumption

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Consumer confidence stood at 2.6, below estimates (BBVAe: 12; consensus: 15) and anticipating a sharper than expected slowdown in private consumption. Today, unemployment figures will be published in Brazil; we expect the labour market to have deteriorated in July.

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LatAm Daily | Chilean figures in 2Q15 confirm slower activity

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Domestic demand figures showed a slight improvement in 2Q15 although investment in infrastructure grew 3.3% YoY. Imports contracted 5.1% YoY while exports fell 4.9%. We maintain both our forecast of 2.2% GDP growth and a current account surplus of 0.7% of GDP. Colombian consumer confidence will be released today; we expect signals of a slowdown in private consumption

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LatAm Daily | Colombian industrial output grew 1.5% YoY in June

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The June print showed a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector while retail sales grew 5.1% YoY as the slowdown in household spending was moderate. We expect the deceleration to be steeper in 2H15 although retail sales will remain in positive territory. Today, Chile’s balance of payments and national accounts will be released. We expect 2Q15 GDP growth of 1.7% YoY

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LatAm Daily | Peruvian GDP growth surprises to the upside in June

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GDP grew 3.9% YoY, beating consensus, due to primary sectors. Otherwise, the non-primary sector, which better tracks the performance of domestic demand, rose 3.3%. We expect GDP growth of around 3% in 2H15. Colombian BanRep’s minutes were released. The Board decided, in a split three way call, to keep rates on hold, revealing disagreement among the members of the committee

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LatAm Daily | CBs in Peru and Chile kept policy rate on hold, as widely expected

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Peru’s CB raised concerns about the inflation outlook and did not rule out the idea of a rate hike in the coming months. Yet we do not expect any changes in the short term. Meanwhile, Chile’s inflation rate will remain above 4% for longer due to sharper currency depreciation, although we still expect the Board to discuss further stimulus once inflation eases in 4Q15.

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LatAm Daily | Brazil’s retail sales support our tepid view on private consumption

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June core retail sales fell 0.4% MoM as expected. The broad indicator dropped 0.8%. Chile’s expectation survey depicted a gloomier outlook with GDP growth revised downwards and inflation revised upwards although LT inflation expectations remain anchored to the CB’s target. Today, there will be the monetary policy meetings in both Chile and Peru; we don't expect any changes

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LatAm Daily | Moody’s downgrades Brazil to Baa3 due to economic and political issues

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Overnight, Moody’s decided to downgrade Brazil while attaching a stable outlook. The decision comes after S&P’s outlook downgrade to negative from stable 2 weeks ago. Meanwhile, June retail sales will be released today; we expect a drop of 0.4% MoM, supporting our view of a severe contraction in consumption

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LatAm Daily | Chile’s LT inflation expectations to remain anchored to the CB’s target

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Today, the economic expectation survey and Industrial Production will be released in Chile and Mexico respectively. This week, economic activity indicators will be released in Brazil and Peru, retail sales in Brazil and Colombia and the central bank decisions in Chile and Peru regarding the overnight rates.

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LatAm Daily | Inflation in Brazil surprises to the upside, Chile in line with consensus

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The July print in Brazil came in higher as food and administered prices grew faster than expected. We expect the trend to continue in August and then to ease for the rest of 2015. Chile’s Trade Balance remained weak in July with exports and imports falling by 17% and 12% respectively. Despite a rise in capital goods imports, external and domestic demand remain weak.

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LatAm Daily | COPOM signals that the Selic will remain stable, but highlights upside risks

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The minutes suggest that the tightening cycle is over, although the inflation forecast for the end of 2016 is above the target. However, a rise in the SELIC may happen if inflation expectations deviate from the target. Chile’s June nominal wages grew 0.2% while real wages fell 0.3% MoM reinforcing our view on the sluggishness in the labour market and consumption.

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