Alejandro Faci
Alejandro Faci

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Inflation expectations rose 0.4% MoM in August in line with our estimate, as traders expect the currency weakening and hovering around USDCLP 710. However, long-term expectations remained anchored to the central bank’s target. Meanwhile, traders expect a 25bp increase in interest rates. Today, Mexico’s trade balance should show a deficit of USD1,590mn.
This week we will be watching out for Brazil’s 2Q15 GDP, due out on Friday, together with the Minutes of the last central bank meeting in Chile. Finally, in Mexico, we also have the trade balance, the unemployment rate and the YtD budget balance at the end of the week.
July’s confidence index fell as manufacturers worried about production three months ahead, although inventory and orders figures improved. Mexico’s inflation resumed a downward trend in the first fortnight of August, indicating a limited pass-through from the exchange rate. In our view the year-end consensus forecast is high and should gradually converge with our estimate