Asuman Kemiksiz
Asuman Kemiksiz
Senior Economist

Asuman Kemiksiz works as an Economist at Garanti Bank since May 2014. Her main responsibilities include the analysis of the economy as well as macroeconomic modelling.

She studied at London School of Economics and Political Science and got her degree as BSc. Mathematics and Economics in 2010. She got her master degree in 2012 (MSc.) in Models and Methods of Quantitative Economics at Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, in which she also visited University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne (1 semester) and Bielefeld University (1 semester). She worked as a research intern at United Nations Development Programme following her graduation. She also worked in Turk Telekom A.S. Investor Relations team as “Capital Markets Analyst” before joining Garanti Bank Economic Research Team.

Latest publications

IP grew by 7.0% yoy in November (cal. adj.) in line with expectations. After growing 10% in 3Q, yearly IP growth rate in October-November moderated to 7.2%. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 6.8% yoy in December, implying a whole year growth rate slightly above 7% in 2017.
The CBRT hiked the recent de-facto policy rate (late liquidity window, LLW) by only 50bps to 12.75%, disappointing the market call between 75-100bps and our call of 125bps in the average funding rate. The incoming inflation data will be the key input to know whether the CBRT opted today for a gradualist approach or just a wait-and-see attitude.
The GDP growth rate of 3Q17 surprised on the upside at 11.1% (8.5% both BBVA-GB and consensus), which was supported by the Government’s counter-cyclical measures, favorable base year impact and working day adjustments. This strong figure and an already promising 4Q17 nowcast will lead us to significantly upgrade our already high GDP forecast (6%) to near 7% for 2017.