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Asuman Kemiksiz
Asuman Kemiksiz

Senior Economist

Asuman Kemiksiz works as an Economist at Garanti Bank since May 2014. Her main responsibilities include the analysis of the economy as well as macroeconomic modelling.

 

She studied at London School of Economics and Political Science and got her degree as BSc. Mathematics and Economics in 2010. She got her master degree in 2012 (MSc.) in Models and Methods of Quantitative Economics at Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, in which she also visited University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne (1 semester) and Bielefeld University (1 semester). She worked as a research intern at United Nations Development Programme following her graduation. She also worked in Turk Telekom A.S. Investor Relations team as “Capital Markets Analyst” before joining Garanti Bank Economic Research Team.

 


Latest Publications

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Turkey | IP implies strong growth in 4Q

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IP grew by 7.0% yoy in November (cal. adj.) in line with expectations. After growing 10% in 3Q, yearly IP growth rate in October-November moderated to 7.2%. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 6.8% yoy in December, implying a whole year growth rate slightly above 7% in 2017.

Available in English

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Turkey: The CBRT tightens but lower than expected

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The CBRT hiked the recent de-facto policy rate (late liquidity window, LLW) by only 50bps to 12.75%, disappointing the market call between 75-100bps and our call of 125bps in the average funding rate. The incoming inflation data will be the key input to know whether the CBRT opted today for a gradualist approach or just a wait-and-see attitude.

Available in English

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Turkey: Domestic demand boosts GDP

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The GDP growth rate of 3Q17 surprised on the upside at 11.1% (8.5% both BBVA-GB and consensus), which was supported by the Government’s counter-cyclical measures, favorable base year impact and working day adjustments. This strong figure and an already promising 4Q17 nowcast will lead us to significantly upgrade our already high GDP forecast (6%) to near 7% for 2017.

Available in English

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Turkey: Inflation path deteriorates further

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Annual consumer inflation hit 13% mostly due to the sizable pick-up in food inflation and also the jump in both energy and core prices in November. Recent events and rigidity in core prices signal that the range of the CBRT’s expected medium term disinflation path may not to be materialized, thus, monetary policy should be adjusted accordingly.

Available in English

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Turkey: IP Confirms Robust Activity in 3Q

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Industrial production growth was up to 10%, from 2Q’s 4.6%. Adding up to the previous year’s contraction our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 7.9% yoy (94% info) growth for 3Q. Our models suggest strong growth pattern in for the beginning of 4Q as well, in line with our 6% 2017 GDP growth forecast but with risks that could be on the upside.

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Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Inflation: Further Worsening over Core Prices

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Consumer prices increased by 2.08% (mom) in October, higher than the consensus (1.7%) and our forecast (1.9%). Annual consumer inflation jumped up to 11.9% from 11.2% on still worsening core inflation and renewed pick-up in energy prices.

Available in English

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The CBRT displays a more hawkish tone

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The CBRT keeps its interest rate corridor parallel to market consensus. The hawkish tone is preserved as the Bank continues to find both headline and core inflation outlook alarming over pricing behavior and tries to clarify its roadmap over the maintenance of the tight stance. We expect the CBRT to wait for some more room for monetary easing.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Global recovery proceeds at a stable pace. Moreover, thanks to the Credit Guarantee Fund, Turkish economy continues to grow above potential, which leads us to upgrade our 2017 GDP growth estimate by 1pp to 6%. Additionally, higher momentum in economic activity and ongoing exchange rate pass-through especially from euro results in a higher inflation path.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey: Robust Activity in 3Q

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In August, industrial production (IP) growth came in at 5.2% yoy (cal.adj.) and retail sales index’ growth rate accelerated further. As August data signals further acceleration in the economic activity, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 8.2% growth for 3Q (26% information for September).

Available in English

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Inflation: Another surprise from core inflation

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CPI increased by 0.65% (mom) in September. Annual consumer inflation, hence, rose to 11.2% from August’s 10.7%. Core inflation was the negative surprise, reaching 11%. Negative food inflation in contrast to its seasonal average avoided the headline to climb up further. We expect the headline to increase further before it reaches 10% at the end of 2017 with base effects.

Available in English

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The Central Bank of Turkey remains tight

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The Central Bank maintained its interest rate corridor once again parallel to our call and market consensus. The Bank keeps its hawkish tone as it also finds the high levels of both the headline and core inflation alarming over pricing behavior. We expect the Bank not to find room for monetary easing until the end of 1Q18, when the headline will fall towards 8-8.5%.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey: Robust 2Q GDP growth, as expected

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2Q17 GDP growth came in at 5.1% yoy, just in line with our expectation. Investment and private consumption were the main contributors whilst government spending contribution was negative for the first time in 9 quarters. We expect even a higher growth performance in 2H so risks on our 2017 forecast are on the upside.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey: Activity accelerates further

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Industrial production in July grew by 14.5% yoy (cal.adj.). Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% GDP growth for 2Q and hints even higher performance for 3Q. Considering also an acceleration in 3Q with both base impact and enhanced activity, we believe that the risks on our 5% GDP growth expectation for 2017 are clearly on the upside.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Monthly Economic Monitor Turkey

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Our monthly GDP indicator signals 6% growth in July with available preliminary indicators (32% info) and acceleration will gain pace resulting in at least 7% growth in 3Q even if GDP would not grow at all on quarterly basis. High trend in inflation (around 11% until December) will force the CBRT to stay tight a little longer despite the recent retreatment in USD/TL.

Available in English

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Turkey: Strong … and accelerating activity

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Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are on the upside for our 5% growth estimate for 2017.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English