BBVA Research
BBVA Research

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In Castilla-La Mancha, GDP could fall between 6.4% and 9% depending on the scenario and the recovery by 2021 could be insufficient to recover the GDP levels of early 2019. Employment could fall between 6.1% and 8.7% in 2020, which would mean losing between 20,000 and 32,000 jobs in the biennium.
The health crisis is causing an unprecedented collapse in consumption. Spending on durable goods loses in three months what it has regained in seven years. The decline in vehicle purchase intentions anticipates a significant contraction in demand in 2020, which will rebound in 2021.
The health crisis and the limitation of movement are the main factors in the contraction of activity. Regions exposed to "social consumption" sectors are more affected. The importance of "essential activities" may be sustaining production in some central communities.