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Carlos Casanova

Carlos Casanova is an economist at BBVA in Hong Kong. His areas of expertise include economic developments in the Asia Pacific region and China, as well as the energy and commodity sectors. In addition to examining macroeconomic trends in Asia, he focuses on China’s economic relationship with the world, particularly Latin America and Africa.

 

Prior to joining BBVA, Carlos worked for the European Commission and as a senior consultant for an energy firm in Beijing.

 

Carlos holds a BA Joint Honours from the University of London, School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS); and an MA in International Economics from the Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Carlos speaks Spanish, English and Chinese fluently.


Latest Publications

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Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data

Document Number 17/13

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We develop an indicator to track vulnerability sentiment in China. In order to ensure robustness and depth, we use a combination of traditional macroeconomic and financial time series with textual analysis using Big Data techniques.The index is composed by the following dimensions: state owned enterprises; shadow banking; housing market bubble and exchange rate market.

Available in English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment edging towards neutral

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) moderated in April after improving since July 2016. The CVSI is now edging to neutral, however the components of the index show divergence. The moderation can be related to a decline in housing and FX components. The shadow banking component remained positive on a tighter monetary policy stance and macroprudential measures.

Available in English

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China | Xiongan New Area Announced

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China announced the establishment of a new economic zone 100km South of the capital, Beijing. The Xiongan New Area will encompass three counties, including Xiongxian, Rongcheng and Anxin. The area will sit at the center of a triangle formed by the capital, Beijing; one of North China’s busiest port cities, Tianjin; and the capital of Hebei province, Shijiazhuang.

Available in English

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Tracking Chinese Vulnerability in Real Time Using Big Data

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We develop a new indicator to track Chinese vulnerability sentiment in real time, combining Big Data with key financial indicators and official statistics. Our Chinese Vulnerability and Sentiment Index (CVSI) shows improving risk narratives since 2H16, in line with a pick-up in economic activity and a change in the policy mix put in place by Chinese authorities.

Available in English

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China, a balance between growth, risks and globalisation

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The National People's Congress is without doubt one of the most important events in China’s political calendar. This year is especially important given that the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China will take place in October, where we will oversee the most important leadership reshuffle since 2012, when Xi Jinping became president.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Strong start to 2017 but headwinds abound

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Last year’s recovery continued into 2017. The latest data releases point towards another month of strong growth. In particular, Fixed asset investments and industrial production strengthened in February, while trade figures improved in line with a pickup in global trade. We expect growth to edge down towards 6.0-6.5% by year-end as headwinds continue.

Available in English

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USA and China: the new rules of the game

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Tensions between the USA and China have been rising since Donald Trump was elected president in November of last year. During his election campaign, Trump accused China of manipulating its exchange rate, threatening to introduce trade tariffs of 45% on imports from Asian industrial power.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Trump, tariffs and tensions

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Donald Trump will be inaugurated as 45th President of the United States today. During his campaign, he pledged to label China a “currency manipulator” and impose a 45% tariff on Chinese imports during his first day in office. While the likelihood of this scenario remains low, a number of factors point towards a more protectionist agenda under Trump.

Available in English

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China | Revising outbound FDI figures downwards

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China’s share of global ODI stocks may be larger than previously thought if we factor in Hong Kong’s role as an offshore center. That said, our estimates show that MOFCOM figures overstate ODI flows, raising questions regarding the country’s status as a net creditor.

Available in English

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South China Sea: Stable but tenacious waters

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It’s been over two months since The Hague ruled that China does not have historic rights to the South China Sea. Tensions will continue to escalate further before a bilateral agreement is met, as other players step into the scene. Upside risks remain, particularly in neighboring countries.

Available in English

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G20 | Hangzhou to put on a harmonious façade

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Leaders of the G20 will be meeting in Hangzhou on Sept 4-5 to discuss how to move “towards an innovative, invigorated, inter-connected and inclusive world economy”. The idyllic setting of this year’s G20 Summit should be conducive to cooperation. However, we expect a tepid outcome which looks good on paper but does not translate into actionable policies.

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Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | July PMIs depict mixed picture, PBoC to implement more monetary easing

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China’s official factory gauge contracted in July after expanding for four consecutive months, missing economist expectations. Accommodative monetary as well as fiscal policy stances will be necessary in order to prop up domestic demand in the interim.

Available in English

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The Hague Ruling is set to escalate tensions and later negotiations

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On July 12th The Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) announced its ruling on the territory dispute submitted by Philippines, which in essence rebukes almost all the China’s claims in the South China Sea. Beijing immediately rejected the ruling of the PCA and vowed to protect its historic and economic rights in its claimed water.

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Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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South China Sea tensions escalate

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The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague will announce the results of a ruling on the South China Sea dispute between Philippines and China on July 12. China has announced a military drill in the run-up to the decision, heralding an escalation of tensions in the coming months.

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Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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Africa’s rising commodity export dependency on China

Document Number 16/09

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In this paper, we look at China-Africa trade links in more detail and evaluate some of the implications of Africa’s growing commodity export dependency on China going forward, particularly in the context of a slowdown in China.

Available in English

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Oil impact on Asia’s structural current accounts

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In this watch, we decompose the current account balances of emerging market Asian economies into cyclical and structural components to examine the oil price impact on Asia’s structural current accounts.

Available in English

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China | The quest for a structured approach to deleveraging and SOE reform

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In this Watch, we look at the magnitude and sustainability of China's mounting corporate debt, and construct a simple index to measure the likelihood of foreclosures taking place at a regional level.

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Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | NPC reaction: Targets point towards new focus on growth and financial stability

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The NPC started on March 5 and will conclude on March 16. The authorities seem adamant about maintaining high growth rates, and set the target for 2016 at 6.5-7.0%. Consequently, stimulus measures will be revved up via fiscal and monetary policy channels. This could aggravate China’s looming overcapacity concerns and further push up corporate leverage.

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Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | NPC starts tomorrow, what are the main takeaways?

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The annual plenary session of China's NPC starts on March 5. The meeting is one of the most important events on China’s political calendar. In this Flash, we cover the main takeaways, including targets for 2016: 6.5%-7.0% growth, 3% CPI, 13% M2 expansion; revved up expectations of further monetary as well as fiscal stimulus; and details on China's 13th Five Year Plan.

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Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | Strategic misalignment could hinder outcomes of G20 Finance Ministers Meeting

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Finance Ministers of the G20 will meet in Shanghai on February 26-27 to discuss global growth woes and financial stability. However, disparate economic realities and a dysfunctional international financial system will limit the scope of commitments that can be achieved in Shanghai.

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Geographies:Asia China

Available in English