María Celeste González
Maria Celeste González works in the Research Department of BBVA in Buenos Aires.
She previously worked in several financial institutions as Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Central Bank of Argentina and Banco de Galicia.
She has a degree in Economics from the Universidad de Buenos Aires. She made graduate studies in Finance at the University of CEMA. Her area of interest are finance, financial systems and public finances.
We maintain our GDP forecast fall of 1.2% in 2019, which will grow quarterly form 2Q-19 due to the recovery of agricultural campaign and the reduction of FX market tensions. By 2020, the economy will have processed the tensions caused by the electoral uncertainty and will grow by 2.5% as private domestic demand recovers.
We revised slightly to the downside the growth of 2019 to -1.2% due to the prolongation of the monetary astringency, maintaining the vision of a positive quarterly growth since 1Q19. Inflation will fall more gradually than expected, reaching 35% YoY due to the volatility of the exchange rate and the higher indexation of the economy.
The currency crisis of 2018 derailed both the gradual fiscal approach and the inflation targets, and drastically changed the 2019 outlook. The key questions are whether there be a turnaround in activity and inflation, and who the next President will be.