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María Celeste González
María Celeste González

Principal Economist

Maria Celeste González works in the Research Department of BBVA Francés in Buenos Aires.

 

She previously worked in several financial institutions as Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Central Bank of Argentina and Banco de Galicia.

 

She has a degree in Economics from the Universidad de Buenos Aires. She made graduate studies in Finance at the University of CEMA. Her area of interest are finance, financial systems and public finances.


Latest Publications

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Argentina Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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The economy will grow 3.3% in each of the next 2 years driven by investment and increased external demand, particularly from Brazil and China. Inflation will continue to fall slowly but convergence to the goals will remain a challenge for the Central Bank. It is key to monitor the evolution of the twin deficits (fiscal and external).

Available in Spanish, English

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Available in Spanish, English

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Infographic Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Growth is accelerating and spreading across the board, but inflation is falling more slowly than expected. Private consumption and investment are the most dynamic components of aggregate demand

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Growth is accelerating and becoming more widespread, in line with our 2.8% forecast for 2017. Inflation is slowing but less than required to meet the targets of the Central Bank, which will maintain its tight stance on monetary policy. A positive result in the parliamentary elections will enable the government to make faster progress in the reform agenda

Available in Spanish, English

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Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

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The Argentine economy entered its third consecutive quarter of recovery. Growth forecasts of 2.8% for 2017 and 3% for 2018. Gradually decreasing trend in core inflation will be maintained in the coming months. Inflation as measured by INDEC's GBA CPI will reach 19.5% y/y at the end of 2017, still above the BCRA’s target of 12-17% YoY

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

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The economy continued to grow in 1Q17 in line with our forecast of 2.8% Y/Y. Inflation is moving away from the BCRA target and will reach 19.5% (INDEC) Y/Y in December, driven by tariffs and core inflation that does not yield. The restrictive monetary and accommodative fiscal policy mix strengthens the peso, but we expect a greater pace of depreciation in 2H17

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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The economy began to recover in 4Q16 and will grow 2.8% in 2017 driven by investment. The downward stickiness of core inflation and the increase in tariffs will keep inflation at 20.8% YoY in 2017, and the CB in a tight stance. 2017 financial needs at USD 40 billion to be covered by debt issues will result in capital inflows and tend to appreciate the real exchange rate

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016

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The economic recovery is being delayed and GDP will fall 2% in 2016, but then grow 3.2% in 2017. Positive signs of the slowing of inflation as a result of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. The fiscal deficit in 2017 will be similar to 2016 and will be financed with more debt. The real exchange rate tends to appreciate due to increased foreign exchange earnings

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook Third Quarter 2016

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Argentina's GDP will fall 1% this year, but the impact of changing economic policies will be evident in 2017 with growth of 3.2% annually. Inflation is falling more slowly than expected. Gradual devaluation of the peso in 2H16 due to seasonal factors and the cut in interest rates, although the Central Bank will deal swiftly with any sudden movements

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2016

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Argentina came out of default in May following rapid progress on the new government’s programme of reforms. The economy will contract by 0.4% in 2016 but will start growing again by more than 3% a year from 2017 on. The government is focusing on monetary policy, but inflation will not start to fall until the second half of 2016

Available in Spanish, English