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Cristóbal Gamboni
Cristóbal Gamboni

Senior Economist

BA in Economics in University of Chile.
Executive in entrepreneurship projects in the business incubator of Diego Portales University (2008-2009).
Economist at research department, macroeconomic unit, on Budget Office, Ministry of Finance (2009-2014).
Joinedto BBVA Research Chile in January 2014.


Latest Publications

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Chile Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Risks detected in our previous report have materialised, and we have therefore revised our projection for this year down to 1.3%, but we maintain an increase by 2.4% in 2018. Increasing slack in the economy and the strength of the peso lead us to estimate an end-of-period inflation by 2.6% YoY, with a downward bias, and 2.8% YoY for 2018.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | June CPI surprises both market and baseline scenario of the Central Bank

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June CPI of -0.4% MoM (1.7% YoY), surprised both market expectations and baseline scenario of the Central Bank, widening room for a new cycle of MPR's cuts. Inflationary diffusion was under its historical floor. Core inflation indicators, especially for goods, reached the minimum since we have comparable statistics (2010).

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | Another disappointment in activity: montly GDP growth of (just) 0.1% YoY

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The IMACEC for April rose by 0.1% YoY, marking a difficult start to the quarter. Three fewer working days in the month than in April 2016, including one compulsory official holiday for the census, had a negative impact, but the figure could also be signalling a somewhat sharper slowdown. In any case, non-mining IMACEC decreased by 0.1% on the previous month

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | More cuts in the MPR? Not for the time being

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Following the release of recent indicators, voices have again been raised seeking further cuts in the MPR. We do not rule out further adjustments, but for this to happen will require more discouraging figures, not just as regards activity but also in the labour market, and particularly regarding inflation to force the hand of the monetary authority.

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in English

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Chile | Cut in MPR to 2.5% and neutral bias

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It had to happen. The Central Bank has cut the MPR (Monetary Policy Rate) by 25bp and modified its bias to a neutral one. It would be consistent with the macro scenario of the CB to cut the rate despite the fact that consensus and all the surveys were inclined - incorrectly, from our point of view - to maintain it.

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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We are continuing to forecast growth of 1.6% this year, although risks are tilted to the downside. Inflation will continue to fluctuate below 3% yoy for most of the year. Our baseline scenario envisages a depreciation of the peso. The monetary policy rate will be around 2.5% at the end of the first semester and we estimate a growth in public spending by 4%.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | Local issuance: Ongoing efforts to seek increased non-residents participation

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Treasury announces local currency issuance calendar for US$7 billion, of a total that for this year would be US$10.5 billion at most, US$1 billion less than the limit authorised by the Budget Act

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Geographies:Chile

Available in English

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Chile Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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Growth projection for 2017 has been corrected to 1.6% in view of the weakness observed at the beginning of the year. The exchange rate is close to intervention level. Limited inflationary pressures are confirmed, which creates room for cuts in the monetary policy rate to 2.5%. The medium-term fiscal situation is becoming more complex and will require an adjustment.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | Fundamentals of the Chilean Economy

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The aim of this presentation goes beyond the short-run economic outlook with relevant data on different dimensions of the Chilean economy. It seeks to provide information to frequent questions from both foreign and domestic investors.

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Geographies:Chile

Available in English

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Chile Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016

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We are maintaining our growth projections for 2016-17. Inflation would end the year close to the Central Bank’s target and to fluctuate below 3% in 2017. We are projecting at least two cuts in the Monetary Policy Rate by 1Q17. Cuts in the Monetary Policy Rate are needed in order to bring about a more competitive exchange rate and to anchor inflation.

Units:
Geographies:Chile Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

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We adjusted downwards our GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 1.8%, following the materialisation of external and internal risks. Currency appreciation has been excessive, making recovery difficult and with a potential risk of generating significant disinflationary pressures. We foresee two cuts in the MPR in the next 12 months. The first would occur in 4Q16.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | IMACEC of 0.8% YoY: Close to a technical recession

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IMACEC of June goes in line with our expectations showing the economy expanding annually at a modest 0.8%. (BBVAe 0.6%; EEE 1.5%). However, in seasonally adjusted terms, the economy has half the work done to enter a technical recession by contracting 2.6 % QoQa.

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Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish

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Chile | Public spending slows down in June but is going to play a major role in 2H16

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Public spending grew by 1.7% in June and is expected to grow by 4.6% during the 2H16. This increase in spending would support internal demand and go in line with the budgeted 4.2% fiscal expansion for this year. Meanwhile, incomes are still weak due to the slow dynamics in internal demand and the low price of copper.

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish

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Chile | Another slap in the face: economic activity below 1% YoY in June

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Economic sector figures in June were in line with our projections which confirm that aggregate activity will grow between 0.5% - 0.9% YoY. On the other hand, the unemployment rate keeps rising, determined by a decrease in salaried jobs nonetheless sustained by self employment. Overall, figures still show labor market slack.

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish

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Chile | Central Bank stays alert: keeps interest rate and bias

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Central Bank keeps both the MPR at 3.5% and the moderate hawkish bias. At the same time it recognizes the appreciation of the peso since it could start generating a disinflationary shock in the medium term, which the economy might not be able to resist at this slow growth rate.

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish