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Cristóbal Gamboni
Cristóbal Gamboni

Senior Economist

BA in Economics in University of Chile.
Executive in entrepreneurship projects in the business incubator of Diego Portales University (2008-2009).
Economist at research department, macroeconomic unit, on Budget Office, Ministry of Finance (2009-2014).
Joinedto BBVA Research Chile in January 2014.


Latest Publications

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Chile | Cut in MPR to 2.5% and neutral bias

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It had to happen. The Central Bank has cut the MPR (Monetary Policy Rate) by 25bp and modified its bias to a neutral one. It would be consistent with the macro scenario of the CB to cut the rate despite the fact that consensus and all the surveys were inclined - incorrectly, from our point of view - to maintain it.

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Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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We are continuing to forecast growth of 1.6% this year, although risks are tilted to the downside. Inflation will continue to fluctuate below 3% yoy for most of the year. Our baseline scenario envisages a depreciation of the peso. The monetary policy rate will be around 2.5% at the end of the first semester and we estimate a growth in public spending by 4%.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | Local issuance: Ongoing efforts to seek increased non-residents participation

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Treasury announces local currency issuance calendar for US$7 billion, of a total that for this year would be US$10.5 billion at most, US$1 billion less than the limit authorised by the Budget Act

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Geographies:Chile

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Chile Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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Growth projection for 2017 has been corrected to 1.6% in view of the weakness observed at the beginning of the year. The exchange rate is close to intervention level. Limited inflationary pressures are confirmed, which creates room for cuts in the monetary policy rate to 2.5%. The medium-term fiscal situation is becoming more complex and will require an adjustment.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | Fundamentals of the Chilean Economy

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The aim of this presentation goes beyond the short-run economic outlook with relevant data on different dimensions of the Chilean economy. It seeks to provide information to frequent questions from both foreign and domestic investors.

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Geographies:Chile

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Chile Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016

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We are maintaining our growth projections for 2016-17. Inflation would end the year close to the Central Bank’s target and to fluctuate below 3% in 2017. We are projecting at least two cuts in the Monetary Policy Rate by 1Q17. Cuts in the Monetary Policy Rate are needed in order to bring about a more competitive exchange rate and to anchor inflation.

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Geographies:Chile Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

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We adjusted downwards our GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 1.8%, following the materialisation of external and internal risks. Currency appreciation has been excessive, making recovery difficult and with a potential risk of generating significant disinflationary pressures. We foresee two cuts in the MPR in the next 12 months. The first would occur in 4Q16.

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Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | IMACEC of 0.8% YoY: Close to a technical recession

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IMACEC of June goes in line with our expectations showing the economy expanding annually at a modest 0.8%. (BBVAe 0.6%; EEE 1.5%). However, in seasonally adjusted terms, the economy has half the work done to enter a technical recession by contracting 2.6 % QoQa.

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Geographies:Chile

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Chile | Public spending slows down in June but is going to play a major role in 2H16

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Public spending grew by 1.7% in June and is expected to grow by 4.6% during the 2H16. This increase in spending would support internal demand and go in line with the budgeted 4.2% fiscal expansion for this year. Meanwhile, incomes are still weak due to the slow dynamics in internal demand and the low price of copper.

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Geographies:Chile

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Chile | Another slap in the face: economic activity below 1% YoY in June

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Economic sector figures in June were in line with our projections which confirm that aggregate activity will grow between 0.5% - 0.9% YoY. On the other hand, the unemployment rate keeps rising, determined by a decrease in salaried jobs nonetheless sustained by self employment. Overall, figures still show labor market slack.

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Geographies:Chile

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Chile | Central Bank stays alert: keeps interest rate and bias

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Central Bank keeps both the MPR at 3.5% and the moderate hawkish bias. At the same time it recognizes the appreciation of the peso since it could start generating a disinflationary shock in the medium term, which the economy might not be able to resist at this slow growth rate.

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Chile | June’s CPI rose 0.4% MoM above market expectations, caused by specific products

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June’s CPI increased by 0.4% (4.2% YoY), which surprised market expectations (at 0.3% MoM) but was in line with our forecast. Foodstuffs and Transportations items were the main contributors to the increase in prices. We expect July’s CPI to increase in a range between 0% and 0.1% MoM. All in all, we maintain our forecast for 2016 at 3.2%YoY eop and below 3% in 2017.

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Geographies:Chile

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Chile | Economic activity slows down in May loosing what was gained earlier this year

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The economy does not show signs of recovery and is expanding by 1.8% YoY in May (consensus: 1.5%; BBVAe: 1.9%) with no variation with respect to the end of 2015; losing what was gained at the beginning of the year. We expect growth in the Imacec of June between 1% and 1.5%, while in 2017 we forecast a GDP expansion below 2%.

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Geographies:Chile

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Chile | Fiscal spending accelerates in May. TR would avoid a worse fiscal deficit

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Public spending increased by 8.4% YoY in May with a surge in public investment. Meanwhile, mining incomes and VAT suffer a strong decline, however, TR revenues compensates for the losses. To comply with the yearly goal spending growth will require moderation in 2H16, as a result, reducing its contribution on aggregate demand.

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Geographies:Chile

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Chile | IMACEC with a ceiling of 2% YoY in May – Labor market depreciation surges

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In May, activity by sector shows that the economy is in a weakening phase with significant impact on employment. The unemployment rate in May was of 6.8%, which is the highest since 2011, with high probability of increasing beyond 7% in the following months. As a result, we estimate that the economy has not grown more than 2% YoY in May.

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Chile | Central bank kept policy rate at 3.5% and modifies the restrictive tone

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The Board stressed that the pace of future adjustment will be the implicit in its latest baseline scenario. Nonetheless, points out that a significant deviation of the convergence of the inflation may change said pace, which we interpret as a hawkish tone for the Monetary Policy Rate, due the risk for a more depreciation from the volatility in the international scenario.

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Chile | CPI inflation decelerated more than expected in May

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CPI inflation in May increased 0.2% MoM (+4.2% YoY), below both our and market expectations (+0.3% MoM). The figure was mainly driven by transitory factors, coming from a supply shock in perishable foods. We expect a CPI inflation for June in a range between 0.2% and 0.3% MoM and reinforce our forecast at 3.2% YoY for the end of 2016.

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Chile | Imacec increased 0.7% YoY in April, missing expectations

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Economic activity grew 0.7% YoY in April (-1.3% MoM sa), below both our and market expectations (BBVAe: 1.5% YoY; consensus: 1.9% YoY). The figure was driven by negative contributions in mining sector and a less than expected positive contribution from services and retail sectors. For May, preliminary we expect an Imacec growth in a range between 2.5% and 3.5% YoY.

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Geographies:Chile

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Chile | An attractive country for Latin-American migration

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Immigration in Chile has been rising during recent years and now they represent more than 2% of overall population. For 2015, estimates pointed to half million immigrants, mainly from South America in both stock and flow measures, while recent figures show an increasing wave of immigration coming from Central America.

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Geographies:Chile
Topics:Migration

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Chile | Fiscal revenues declined during April while public expenditure accelerates

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In April, fiscal expenditure accelerated to7.6% YoY, mainly driven by government consumption. Meanwhile, fiscal revenues declined by 13.5% YoY, driven mainly by lower tax collection from mining. Hence, the effective fiscal balance reached the figure of 1.2% of GDP, a figure not seen since 2012. This is also paving the way towards the highest effective deficit since 2009.

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Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish