David Esteban Gracia Salazar
Global growth will continue to decelerate gradually in 2023 and recover thereafter. Colombia's GDP will follow a similar path, mainly explained by lower household spending. Inflation will be lower over the next two years, allowing for lower interest rates from the end of 2023.
The Colombian economy will enter a lower growth fase. Private consumption will stabilize at more sustainable levels in the medium term. Inflation will gradually moderate in 2023. The Central Bank will have space to start a gradual interest rate reduction cycle at the end of 2023.
BBVA Research estimate a Colombian economy grow stood at 6.8% YoY this year. In 2023, especially due to a moderation in private consumption, the economy will decelerate healthily to 2.0%. Inflation will close this year at 9.2% and fall to 5.0% by the end of 2023, thanks to the restrictive tone of monetary policy.