Gizem Onen
Gizem Onen

Gizem Onen has joined the Garanti Bank as a Junior Economist in September 2016. She has graduated from Koc University in 2015. She holds BA degree in Economics, with a double major in Business Administration. During her college studies, Gizem also spent a semester abroad in Fall 2014 at Bocconi University in Economics department.

Her responsibility within the team, is macroeconomic analysis of Turkey; including financial modelling and forecasting.

Latest publications

In August, industrial production (IP) growth came in at 5.2% yoy (cal.adj.) and retail sales index’ growth rate accelerated further. As August data signals further acceleration in the economic activity, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 8.2% growth for 3Q (26% information for September).
CPI increased by 0.65% (mom) in September. Annual consumer inflation, hence, rose to 11.2% from August’s 10.7%. Core inflation was the negative surprise, reaching 11%. Negative food inflation in contrast to its seasonal average avoided the headline to climb up further. We expect the headline to increase further before it reaches 10% at the end of 2017 with base effects.
2Q17 GDP growth came in at 5.1% yoy, just in line with our expectation. Investment and private consumption were the main contributors whilst government spending contribution was negative for the first time in 9 quarters. We expect even a higher growth performance in 2H so risks on our 2017 forecast are on the upside.