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Gizem Onen

Gizem Onen has joined the Garanti Bank as a Junior Economist in September 2016. She has graduated from Koc University in 2015. She holds BA degree in Economics, with a double major in Business Administration. During her college studies, Gizem also spent a semester abroad in Fall 2014 at Bocconi University in Economics department.

 

Her responsibility within the team, is macroeconomic analysis of Turkey; including financial modelling and forecasting.


Latest Publications

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Turkey: Robust 2Q GDP growth, as expected

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2Q17 GDP growth came in at 5.1% yoy, just in line with our expectation. Investment and private consumption were the main contributors whilst government spending contribution was negative for the first time in 9 quarters. We expect even a higher growth performance in 2H so risks on our 2017 forecast are on the upside.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

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Turkey: Activity accelerates further

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Industrial production in July grew by 14.5% yoy (cal.adj.). Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% GDP growth for 2Q and hints even higher performance for 3Q. Considering also an acceleration in 3Q with both base impact and enhanced activity, we believe that the risks on our 5% GDP growth expectation for 2017 are clearly on the upside.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

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Monthly Economic Monitor Turkey

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Our monthly GDP indicator signals 6% growth in July with available preliminary indicators (32% info) and acceleration will gain pace resulting in at least 7% growth in 3Q even if GDP would not grow at all on quarterly basis. High trend in inflation (around 11% until December) will force the CBRT to stay tight a little longer despite the recent retreatment in USD/TL.

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Inflation: Outlook worsens on core dynamics

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In August, consumer prices rose by 0.52%, higher than the consensus (0.1%) and even our estimate (0.3%). FX pass-through mostly on the recent appreciation of Euro, second round price effects and spill-overs from the narrowing output gap continued to be the factors behind. We expect the headline to stay close to 11% before it would fall to 9-9.5% at the end of the year.

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Turkey: Strong … and accelerating activity

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Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are on the upside for our 5% growth estimate for 2017.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Inflation: Core inflation implies risks on the upside

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Consumer prices rose by 0.15% in July, incrementally lower than the market consensus and our call (0.2%). Annual headline fell to 9.8% thanks to food and favorable base impact on tobacco. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to breach 10% in August and stay at 10-11% levels till December before it would sizably fall towards 9% at the end of the year.

Available in English

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Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor - July 2017

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Robust stance in the economic activity continued in 2Q, according to our nowcast. Inflation will ease further in summer on top of favorable base effects before climbing up again in 3Q. The CBRT strengthened its hawkish stance by keeping its interest rates intact and having the average funding rate hover above 11.9%.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

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Turkey: May IP hints a more balanced outlook

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Industrial production (IP) grew by 3.5% in May (calendar adjusted, YoY), signaling that economic activity maintains its momentum in 2Q17. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) also confirms this with a growth rate close to 5% YoY by June (with 26% information so far).

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey Monthly Economic Monitor | June

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Recovery in IP continues with the support from both exporting and domestic demand oriented sectors. We expect the GDP growth in 2Q to accelerate even further, as early signals from May suggest a growth rate close to 6%. Turkish lira stabilized at 3.50-3.55 band as global and local factors balance each other and the CBRT maintains its hawkish tone

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Geographies:Turkey

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Inflation moderation also supported by core prices

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Consumer prices declined by 0.27% in June in contrast to the market call of a slight rise by 0.1%. The data proved to be more positive thanks to the improvement in core inflation backed by the fall in auto prices. Annual inflation fell to 10.9% from 11.7% in May with favorable base impact on food inflation, slight withdrawal in core prices and plummeting energy prices.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

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Renewables: The answer is blowin’ in the wind

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The prevalence of fossil fuels in the production of electricity is being challenged by the rapid expansion of renewable sources such as wind and solar. Around the world, wind energy capacity has increased fivefold since 2007, reaching 487GW in 2016

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey: Another Positive Growth Surprise

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1Q17 GDP surprised positively by growing 5% YoY compared to the market (3.4%) and our expectations (3.2%). Net exports and public spending were the main drivers of growth while the positive surprise factor was the solid private consumption growth. The risks on our 3% whole year growth forecast are clearly on the upside.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

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Turkey: IP signals private demand recovery

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April industrial production (IP) data signals that the economic activity is gaining momentum in 2Q17. Our monthly GDP indicator confirms this with a growth rate close to 4% YoY by April, marginally higher than our 1Q17 growth expectation of 3.2%. All in all, we maintain our 2017 growth estimate at 3% with risks on the upside.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey Inflation: Worst is over but it’s early for complacency

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Annual consumer inflation marginally fell for the first time after 6 months to 11.7% from 11.9% in April. Core inflation remained stable at 9.4% despite the ongoing exchange rate pass-through. We expect the headline to fall towards 11-11.5% band in June and remain at double digits before falling to 9% at the year-end.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor, May 2017

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GDP growth continues in moderate pace. Food inflation keeps the headline high but it will ease somehow in summer. CBT continues to fund mostly on LLW, keeping the average funding just below 12%.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English