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Gonzalo De Cadenas Santiago
Gonzalo De Cadenas Santiago

Principal Economist

Gonzalo de Cadenas Santiago is currently Principal Economist at the Transversal Analysis unit of BBVA Research. Most of his work relates to the cross sectional analysis of emerging economies with a special focus on financial stability and capital markets.

 

In the past he was Senior Economist at Banco Santander and Cemex, and worked extensively as quantitative researcher at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin (DIW).

 

He holds a PhD in Economics from the Humboldt University of Berlin where he is also a member of the Academic Advisory Council of the Economic's Faculty.


Latest Publications

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The Network View: applications to international trade and bank exposures

Document Number 17/02

By ,

Systems of interconnected elements are increasingly important in economic applications. This paper elaborates on some ideas of network analysis and its application to the study of systems of economic interest. It focuses on the Identification of influential and vulnerable elements, from both a global and a local perspective.

Available in English

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China | Resilient growth amid policy fine-tuning

By , ,

Our monthly GDP model forecast for Q2 GDP increased to 6.6% y/y from its previous projection of 6.4% y/y based on May data. Economic activity indicators appeared to be resilient despite the authorities’ policy fine-tuning on concerns of rising risks. There is no further dip in most activity indicators, except for FAI. Risks to our 2016 GDP growth forecasts remain neutral.

Available in English

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Country Risk Report. Second Quarter 2016

By , , ,

Argentina was upgraded by the three agencies after its return to the bond markets. Ireland was upgraded by Moody’s. Fitch downgraded Brazil and upgraded Hungary. The market pressure (downgrades/upgrades) has stabilized after a calmed quarter. Turkey, Chile, Colombia, China and Malaysia still on the spotlight.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | Growth moderates but still robust

By , , ,

GDP growth moderated to 4.8% YoY in 1Q16 from 5.7% of the previous quarter, but still higher than market expectations (4.4%). Strong private and government consumption are behind the robust data while private investments and net exports contracted. Tourist related sectors were hit but not sharply.

Available in English

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Flows & Assets Report: Flow reallocation back to EM. Second Quarter 2016

By , , , , ,

Global risk aversion receded in Q1 2016 in a context of still volatile markets. The return of risk appetite was attributable to stabilization signs in China, the rebound in oil prices and the continued support of Developed Markets' central banks.

Available in English

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EAGLEs Economic Outlook. Annual Report 2016

By , , ,

The Emerging World will account for almost four fifths of global growth in the next ten years. New members are included in the EAGLEs and Nest group, coming mainly from Asia and the Middle East. A special chapter of digital EAGLEs.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Recovery pace is moderating in Q2

By , ,

Economic activity indicators moderated in April as the authorities fine-tuned the pace of policy stimulus on concerns of rising risks associated with credit binge. Our model-based forecast for Q2 GDP is 6.4%, which is line with our full-year 6.4% GDP forecast. On the policy front, we anticipate the authorities to beef up easing efforts again in the second half of 2016.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | Activity Moderation Towards Potential

By , , ,

Industrial production grew by 4.7% YoY in March, undershooting the consensus estimate of 5%, while calendar adjusted figure was even lower at 2.9% . Retail sales grew by 4%. Production and demand side data pointed at a modest slowdown in March confirming the earlier easing signals from the confidence indicators.

Available in English

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Country Risk Report First Quarter 2016

By , , ,

Financial tensions in Emerging Markets (EMs) soared back to August levels driven by falling commodity prices and stock market turmoil in China, but receded somewhat in February, when the focus changed to the DMs’ banking sector, and after the recent oil price recovery.

Available in Spanish, English

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Flows & Assets Report: The Big Emerging Markets Short. First Quarter 2016

By , , , , ,

Global growth concerns led by China’s policy shifts and inability to sooth investor concerns heightened risk off-mood particularly by yearend. Unlike previous episodes, the trigger was not in the Fed policy but China, EM vulnerabilities and potential impact of EM & DM.

Available in English

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BBVA-UHFAI: Ultra High Frequency Activity Index

By , ,

We would like to present a particular framework for measuring economic activity in real time. This approach carries two distinct features: its ability to exploit ultra-high frequency information by means of state space modeling and the introduction of a novel set of semantic-based variables extracted by means of Big Data.

Available in English

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Country Risk Report Fourth Quarter 2015

By , , ,

Financial tensions are receding across the board as tensions in China moderate and as the Fed’s lift-off effect seems to be fully priced-in. Global risk aversion (VIX) has dropped sharply relaxing the Emerging Markets (EMs) risk-off mood.

Available in Spanish, English

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Flows & Assets Report | Third Quarter 2015

By , , , , ,

Global growth concerns led by China’s slowdown bring a heightened risk off-mood particularly to EMs. Global monetary policy easing bias prevents further deterioration and a short recess in financial volatility at the end of the quarter and opens a dim possibility of flow recovery during the months ahead.

Available in English

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Country Risk Report. Third Quarter 2015

By , , ,

Rising concerns on China add to the expected reaction to a FED’s tightening. Thus, global drivers are behind the volatile and gloomy quarter in EMs equities, FX rates and commodities.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2015

By , ,

Global economic growth continues, but at a slightly slower rate than we expected. Emerging Markets face an uncertain scenario with lower demand from China and the approaching increase of Fed’s interest rates. China’s economy in the limelight: size, financial interconnections and potential contagion channels abroad.

Available in Spanish, English