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Gonzalo De Cadenas Santiago
Gonzalo de Cadenas Santiago is currently Principal Economist at the Transversal Analysis unit of BBVA Research. Most of his work relates to the cross sectional analysis of emerging economies with a special focus on financial stability and capital markets.
In the past he was Senior Economist at Banco Santander and Cemex, and worked extensively as quantitative researcher at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin (DIW).
He holds a PhD in Economics from the Humboldt University of Berlin where he is also a member of the Academic Advisory Council of the Economic's Faculty.
Systems of interconnected elements are increasingly important in economic applications. This paper elaborates on some ideas of network analysis and its application to the study of systems of economic interest. It focuses on the Identification of influential and vulnerable elements, from both a global and a local perspective.
Our monthly GDP model forecast for Q2 GDP increased to 6.6% y/y from its previous projection of 6.4% y/y based on May data. Economic activity indicators appeared to be resilient despite the authorities’ policy fine-tuning on concerns of rising risks. There is no further dip in most activity indicators, except for FAI. Risks to our 2016 GDP growth forecasts remain neutral.
Argentina was upgraded by the three agencies after its return to the bond markets. Ireland was upgraded by Moody’s. Fitch downgraded Brazil and upgraded Hungary. The market pressure (downgrades/upgrades) has stabilized after a calmed quarter. Turkey, Chile, Colombia, China and Malaysia still on the spotlight.