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Ismael Mendoza
Ismael Mendoza

Senior Economist

Ismael Mendoza Mogollón is a Research Economist at BBVA Peru since August 2015. He is focused in monitoring and assessing macroeconomic and external variables, as well as forecasting these variables using econometric models and financial programming.

 

He was previously an External Sector Analyst in the General Directorate of Macroeconomic Policy and Fiscal Decentralization of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, area which is directly involved in the design of fiscal policy.

 

His research interests are focused on macroeconomic and financial issues, and he has published on these subjects.

 

He graduated from the Master in Economics from Universidad del Pacífico (Lima, Peru) and has a Bachelor degree in Economics from the National University of Piura. He has taken the course of University Extension Central Reserve Bank of Peru, as well as courses organized by the International Monetary Fund and the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies.

 


Latest Publications

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Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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The economic outlook is improving in the second half of the year. The Peruvian economy will grow at around 2.5% yoy in the second half of the year (and at around the same rate for 2017 as a whole), with increased support from domestic demand. For next year, GDP will grow at close to 4% yoy. This forecast is subject to the fiscal stimulus.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

The economic outlook is improving in the second half of the year. The Peruvian economy will grow at around 2.5% yoy in the second half of the year (and at around the same rate for 2017 as a whole), with increased support from domestic demand. For next year, GDP will grow at close to 4% yoy. This forecast is subject to the fiscal stimulus.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

We project low growth this year with a rebound in 2018, driven by reconstruction and infrastructure spending.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

We project low growth this year with a rebound in 2018, driven by reconstruction and infrastructure spending.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

We have revised our growth projection for this year by a percentage point to 2.5%. This adjustment reflects the fact that the three local risks we indicated in our February report have finally materialised: the weather problems continued, the delay in the major infrastructure construction projects continued and finally, business confidence dropped even further.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

We have revised our growth projection for this year by a percentage point to 2.5%. This adjustment reflects the fact that the three local risks we indicated in our February report have finally materialised: the weather problems continued, the delay in the major infrastructure construction projects continued and finally, business confidence dropped even further.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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We have revised our growth projection downwards, from 4.1% to 3.5%. The delay in infrastructure construction, one of the main risk factors considered in the report that we published last quarter, materialised in early 2017.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation "Paraguay Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016″

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We expect GDP to grow by 2.9% next year. Growth will be supported by the start of infrastructure works and a gradual recovery in consumption

Units:

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016

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We estimate that the Peruvian economy will grow by about 3.9% in 2016 and by 4.1% in 2017 when infrastructure projects will provide support.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

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We stand by our GDP growth forecasts for the Peruvian economy of 3.6% in 2016 and 4.3% in 2017. Higher mining production and the implementation of large-scale infrastructure works will shore up the growth in GDP over the next few quarters.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Paraguay Economic Outlook First Half 2016

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Growth of around 3.0% in 2016 and 2017. Domestic demand, due to infrastructure projects, will be the main driver of growth. Lower depreciation of the currency but with episodes of volatility. Inflation will continue to be contained around the mid-range of the target. Central Bank would keep its policy monetary rate. Main risks: more pronounced slowdown in Brazil and China.

Units:

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2016

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We continue anticipating that the Peruvian economy will grow 3.6% in 2016 and 4.3% in the following year. The main drivers of this growth will be increased mining production, particularly of copper due to major mines coming on-stream, and increased public and private sector capital expenditure on infrastructure projects.

Units:
Geographies:Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru | Exports fell nearly 9% yoy in February

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Exports fell nearly 9% yoy in February, lower than previous month rate. This outturn was explained by lower prices, mainly in metals. However, this fall was partially offset by volumes due to higher traditional exports.

Units:
Geographies:Peru

Available in Spanish

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Peru | More moderate output growth in January

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GDP grew by 3,4%YoY in January. Not too many changes with respect to last few months' story: strong primary sectors (Mining and Fishing), while sluggish non-primary ones, in particular Non-primary manufacturing and Construction. Available indicators and reasonable assumptions suggest that, considering 2016 is a leap-year, February’s output growth should be close to 6%YoY.

Units:
Geographies:Peru

Available in Spanish

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Peru Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2016

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We forecast that the Peruvian economy will grow by 3.6% in 2016 and by somewhat more than 4% in 2017, boosted by increased mining production and expenditure on infrastructure.

Units:
Geographies:Peru

Available in Spanish, English