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Jorge Alberto Lamela
Jorge Alberto Lamela

Senior Economist

•Graduate degree in Economics by the Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires (1981). Postgraduate program on Economic Theory at IDES (Instituto de Desarrollo Economic y Social), Buenos Aires
•Previous work experience includes Banco del Interior y Buenos Aires (Financial statistics) and sectoral analysis at Banco Francés Risk Department since 1983
•Joined Economic Research Department in 1993

Latest Publications

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

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The Argentine economy entered its third consecutive quarter of recovery. Growth forecasts of 2.8% for 2017 and 3% for 2018. Gradually decreasing trend in core inflation will be maintained in the coming months. Inflation as measured by INDEC's GBA CPI will reach 19.5% y/y at the end of 2017, still above the BCRA’s target of 12-17% YoY

Available in Spanish, English

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Renewables: The answer is blowin’ in the wind

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The prevalence of fossil fuels in the production of electricity is being challenged by the rapid expansion of renewable sources such as wind and solar. Around the world, wind energy capacity has increased fivefold since 2007, reaching 487GW in 2016

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

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The economy continued to grow in 1Q17 in line with our forecast of 2.8% Y/Y. Inflation is moving away from the BCRA target and will reach 19.5% (INDEC) Y/Y in December, driven by tariffs and core inflation that does not yield. The restrictive monetary and accommodative fiscal policy mix strengthens the peso, but we expect a greater pace of depreciation in 2H17

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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The economy began to recover in 4Q16 and will grow 2.8% in 2017 driven by investment. The downward stickiness of core inflation and the increase in tariffs will keep inflation at 20.8% YoY in 2017, and the CB in a tight stance. 2017 financial needs at USD 40 billion to be covered by debt issues will result in capital inflows and tend to appreciate the real exchange rate

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016

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The economic recovery is being delayed and GDP will fall 2% in 2016, but then grow 3.2% in 2017. Positive signs of the slowing of inflation as a result of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. The fiscal deficit in 2017 will be similar to 2016 and will be financed with more debt. The real exchange rate tends to appreciate due to increased foreign exchange earnings

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Argentina | Hydrocarbons Sector facing the challenge of recovering production and reserves

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Argentina requires to recover oil and gas production and reserves after years of declining investment and a context of lower international prices. The new government started to deregulate the sector, giving more autonomy to the province administrations and correcting distorted price signals, but there are still significant challenges to reach self-sufficiency.

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Argentina | Electrical Energy Sector

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The lack of readjustment of energy tariffs since 2000's led to a deep deterioration of the electric sector infrastructure. During last decade, the generation of electrical energy depended mainly on thermal power stations.

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Argentina Economic Outlook Third Quarter 2016

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Argentina's GDP will fall 1% this year, but the impact of changing economic policies will be evident in 2017 with growth of 3.2% annually. Inflation is falling more slowly than expected. Gradual devaluation of the peso in 2H16 due to seasonal factors and the cut in interest rates, although the Central Bank will deal swiftly with any sudden movements

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Argentina Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2016

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Argentina came out of default in May following rapid progress on the new government’s programme of reforms. The economy will contract by 0.4% in 2016 but will start growing again by more than 3% a year from 2017 on. The government is focusing on monetary policy, but inflation will not start to fall until the second half of 2016

Available in Spanish, English