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Jorge Redondo

Jorge Redondo joined BBVA Research in 2014, where he assisted with analysis and research undertaken by the Latin America team. Since 2015, Jorge has been working as an economist for the Global Modelling and Long-Term Analysis team.

 

His research involves the development and modelization of the macro-financial scenarios used for stress testing (EBA, ICAAP) and for the purposes of calculating provisions for credit losses (IFRS9).

 

Jorge obtained a masters in applied research in the Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona, and has a bachelor's degree in Business Administration from the Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, in which he also participated in an Erasmus exchange in Middlesex University, London. He worked as a research assistant in the economic departments of both universities.


Latest Publications

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Global | GDP growth stuck at 3.1% in Q2 amid hopeful confidence and lingering uncertainty

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Minor changes in July-16 in terms of World GDP growth according to BBVA Research GAIN estimates, which remain anchored at 0.8% QoQ (3.1% SAAR) in 2Q16 . The lack of relevant revisions of World GDP data and the balance between slightly better confidence indicators vs. worsening financial volatility are the factors behind the slight changes in GDP growth forecasts for 2Q16

Available in English

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Global | World GDP growth steady at 3.1% YoY amidst increasing uncertainty

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Another month has gone by and yet the global economy is expected to remain trapped at trend-levels (2011-2015) at both Q2 and Q3 (0.78% QoQ and 0.76% QoQ respectively). Whereas these trend dynamics are far from being ominous, recent confidence data (still not exposed by Brexit outcome) prove unable to lift global growth forecasts beyond its trend levels.

Available in English

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Global | Lack of solid ground for global growth to escape below-trend levels

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Global growth returned to its 2011-2015 trend levels (0.75% QoQ) in Q1, one quarter before than we anticipated in our previous note. Such a rebound has been mainly led by China, India and EMU, where incoming GDP prints from Q1 were strong enough to reverse the negative performance of some systemic EM (Brazil, Russia).

Available in English

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Global Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2016

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The strength of the global economy will continue to be shaped by financial markets which have to cope with a great variety of potential risks against the background of different economic forces consistent with anaemic growth.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | GDP growth to benefit from a less stressed financial outlook

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World GDP growth seems to be outpacing fears about a global recession, according to our nowcast estimations (Q1 at 2.6% SAAR, Q2 at 3.0% SAAR). In the latest edition, we pointed out that a sustainable improvement in financial tensions (mainly, in EM), alongside the rebound of commodity prices, was key for global economy to gain some ground

Available in English

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Global | GDP growth remains stuck at 2.6% YoY in Q1.Less cloudy outlook but the same risks

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The April update of our BBVA-GAIN index paints a somewhat similar picture to the one presented last month. Our nowcast for 1Q16 continues to point out that world GDP growth stood at 0.64% QoQ (2.6% annualized rate), slightly above the Q415 print but still quite below the average rate growth observed in 2010-13 (close to 0.90% QoQ)

Available in English

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Global | Updated GDP data and recent indicators lower global growth to 2.6% SAAR in 1Q16

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The March update of our BBVA-GAIN index points out lower rhythm of global growth in 1Q16 due to the coincidence of updated 2015 GDP time series from a vast number of countries and the flow of incoming indicators

Available in English

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Global | Recent flow of data keeps World GDP slowdown forecast in 1Q16

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The February update of our BBVA-GAIN index paints a similar picture to the one presented last month. Our nowcast for 4Q15 continues to point out that world GDP growth stood at 0.75% QoQ while the expectation of slowdown in 1Q16, anticipated last month, has been reinforced. Then, the global economy could grow by 0.68% QoQ in 1Q16

Available in English

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Global | Upward Growth revision in 2H 2015 outshined by latest monthly data

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The January update of our BBVA-GAIN index notably improves the world GDP growth estimate for the second half of 2015, but last monthly indicators shed doubts about the outlook for the start of 2016 (0.70% QoQ) in a context of increasing uncertainty and financial instability.

Available in English

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Global | World GDP gains ground in 3Q (0.69%QoQ) in line with our expectations

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The December update of our BBVA-GAIN reinforces the scenario of slow but continued recovery of the global economy, leaving behind the dip exhibited at the end of last year.The December update of our BBVA-GAIN reinforces the scenario of slow but continued recovery of the global economy, leaving behind the dip exhibited at the end of last year

Available in English

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Global | World GDP growth remains stuck at 0.6% QoQ

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The November update of our BBVA-GAIN concludes that the first half of 2015 ended with the world growing at a pace of 0.6% QoQ. The 3Q is now expected to have kept the same pace, which highlights that global activity has left behind the downward momentum that we estimated two months ago.

Available in English

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Global | World GDP growth remains at 0.6% QoQ in 2Q and 3Q but uncertainty heightens

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The September update of our BBVA-GAIN confirms last month estimations, with global GDP growing in 3Q at the same rate than in 2Q (+0.6% QoQ)

Available in English

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Global GDP: Downward revision of world GDP forecast in 2Q and ongoing downside risks ahead

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The August update of our BBVA-GAIN results in a downward revision of our 2Q15 estimates of world GDP quarterly growth, coherent with the stagnation of manufacturing confidence and the spike of financial volatility related to the uncertainty about China’s growth and its management of economic policies. Then, world growth forecast in 2Q15 is 0.6% QoQ, same figure as 1Q15’s.

Available in English

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The global trade slowdown and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)

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World trade loses momentum due to cyclical and structural reasons such as the change of growth model in China or the reduced impulse from Global Value Chains (GVCs). The major weight of trade flows and FDI between Europe and the US highlights that fostering market access and enhancing regulatory cooperation would have positive effects on bilateral and even on global trade

Available in English

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World’s GDP estimate benefits from revised US data despite global momentum slowness

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The July update of our BBVA-GAIN results in an upward revision of our 1H15 estimate of world GDP, which is mainly due to the revision of US GDP data.

Available in English