Jorge Redondo
Jorge Redondo

Jorge Redondo joined BBVA Research in 2014, where he assisted with analysis and research undertaken by the Latin America team. Since 2015, Jorge has been working as an economist for the Global Modelling and Long-Term Analysis team.

His research involves the development and modelization of the macro-financial scenarios used for stress testing (EBA, ICAAP) and for the purposes of calculating provisions for credit losses (IFRS9).

Jorge obtained a masters in applied research in the Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona, and has a bachelor's degree in Business Administration from the Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, in which he also participated in an Erasmus exchange in Middlesex University, London. He worked as a research assistant in the economic departments of both universities.

Latest publications

The balance of risks has deteriorated on the back of growth concerns in the US and China. A global trade war continues to be relevant despite the current truce, while a resurface of debt tensions in the Eurozone should not be ruled out yet due to high political instability. On a positive note, the U-turn in the Fed’s stance reduces the likelihood of overshooting.
In economics, as in other sciences, history helps us anticipate the shocks that might derail expansion phases such as the current one. Some of the biggest crises have originated with US Federal Reserve rate hikes. This time around, normalisation is being carried out gradually and steadily, with communication geared to avoiding unnecessary scares.
This report analyzes the main global economic risk events that could generate a sizable deviation from our baseline scenario. Among them, a full-on trade war, US recession, Fed exit strategy and disorderly deleveraging in China stand out. Although these are usually events of low probability, their feasibility and adverse effects may be large enough to require monitoring.