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Jorge Selaive
Jorge Selaive

Chief Economist

Jorge Selaive is the Chief Economist for BBVA Research Chile. Previously, Jorge served as Chief Economist of Banco de Crédito e Inversiones (BCI). He handles short-term and long-term analysis of the financial, economic and regulatory aspects of the Chilean economy.

 

He was an Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, in Washington D.C., and a Senior Economist and Economic Research Manager at the Chilean Central Bank’s Research Division.

 

He was Director of BCI Corredor de Bolsa (BCI’s brokerage division), a member of the Chilean Association of Banks Public Policy Commission, Editor of the Chilean Economic Review, published by the Chilean Central Bank, and a member of the Price Distortion Commission. He has also been a Professor of Macroeconomics and International Finance at the University of Chile.

 

He received his Bachelor’s Degree in Economics and Business Engineering from the University of Chile, where he also completed a Master’s Degree in Finance in 1995. He earned his PhD in Economics from New York University in 2003.

 

He is also the author of several publications in specialized journals and serves as a member of the Chilean Tax Authority’s Capital Markets Advisory Council and GDP Trend Committee.


Latest Publications

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Chile | Cut in MPR to 2.5% and neutral bias

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It had to happen. The Central Bank has cut the MPR (Monetary Policy Rate) by 25bp and modified its bias to a neutral one. It would be consistent with the macro scenario of the CB to cut the rate despite the fact that consensus and all the surveys were inclined - incorrectly, from our point of view - to maintain it.

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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We are continuing to forecast growth of 1.6% this year, although risks are tilted to the downside. Inflation will continue to fluctuate below 3% yoy for most of the year. Our baseline scenario envisages a depreciation of the peso. The monetary policy rate will be around 2.5% at the end of the first semester and we estimate a growth in public spending by 4%.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | Local issuance: Ongoing efforts to seek increased non-residents participation

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Treasury announces local currency issuance calendar for US$7 billion, of a total that for this year would be US$10.5 billion at most, US$1 billion less than the limit authorised by the Budget Act

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Geographies:Chile

Available in English

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Chile Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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Growth projection for 2017 has been corrected to 1.6% in view of the weakness observed at the beginning of the year. The exchange rate is close to intervention level. Limited inflationary pressures are confirmed, which creates room for cuts in the monetary policy rate to 2.5%. The medium-term fiscal situation is becoming more complex and will require an adjustment.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | Fundamentals of the Chilean Economy

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The aim of this presentation goes beyond the short-run economic outlook with relevant data on different dimensions of the Chilean economy. It seeks to provide information to frequent questions from both foreign and domestic investors.

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Geographies:Chile

Available in English

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Chile Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016

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We are maintaining our growth projections for 2016-17. Inflation would end the year close to the Central Bank’s target and to fluctuate below 3% in 2017. We are projecting at least two cuts in the Monetary Policy Rate by 1Q17. Cuts in the Monetary Policy Rate are needed in order to bring about a more competitive exchange rate and to anchor inflation.

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Geographies:Chile Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

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We adjusted downwards our GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 1.8%, following the materialisation of external and internal risks. Currency appreciation has been excessive, making recovery difficult and with a potential risk of generating significant disinflationary pressures. We foresee two cuts in the MPR in the next 12 months. The first would occur in 4Q16.

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Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | IMACEC of 0.8% YoY: Close to a technical recession

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IMACEC of June goes in line with our expectations showing the economy expanding annually at a modest 0.8%. (BBVAe 0.6%; EEE 1.5%). However, in seasonally adjusted terms, the economy has half the work done to enter a technical recession by contracting 2.6 % QoQa.

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Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish

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LatAm Daily | Inflation continues to lose steam in Peru

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Today’s is the last edition of our LatAm Daily Flash. For updated macroeconomic analysis of Latin America, please visit our webpage bbvaresearch.com. For daily comments on Latin American markets, please see our report Latin America Daily Update at bbvagmr.com.

Available in English

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Chile | Public spending slows down in June but is going to play a major role in 2H16

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Public spending grew by 1.7% in June and is expected to grow by 4.6% during the 2H16. This increase in spending would support internal demand and go in line with the budgeted 4.2% fiscal expansion for this year. Meanwhile, incomes are still weak due to the slow dynamics in internal demand and the low price of copper.

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Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish

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LatAm Daily | The monetary policy rate in Colombia was increased by 25bps, as expected

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BanRep took the repo rate up to 7.75% and GDP for 2016 was revised down from 2.5% to 2.3%. June’s unemployment rose in Colombia (to 10.2%) and in Chile (to 6.9%). Also in Chile, activity data by sectors signals that activity growth will be under 1% YoY in June. In Brazil, the primary deficit worsened, reaching 1.1% of GDP in June, and we forecast 2.7% for the end of 2016.

Available in English

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Chile | Another slap in the face: economic activity below 1% YoY in June

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Economic sector figures in June were in line with our projections which confirm that aggregate activity will grow between 0.5% - 0.9% YoY. On the other hand, the unemployment rate keeps rising, determined by a decrease in salaried jobs nonetheless sustained by self employment. Overall, figures still show labor market slack.

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Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish

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LatAm Daily | Monetary policy rate in Colombia to increase by 25bps today

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We expect the BanRep to increase its MPR to 7.75%. Also, we expect the unemployment rate to have increased by 9.2%. In Mexico, we expect a more deteriorated preliminary GDP growth for 2Q16: 2.1% YoY / -0.1% QoQ. In Chile, the minutes of the last MP meeting will be released, as will unemployment figures (we expect an increase of 6.9%) and activity data by sector for June.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | Credit markets continue to slow down in Brazil

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Credit stock grew only 1.0% YoY, a negative rate in real terms as inflation in the period stood at 8.8% YoY. The further moderation of credit markets in the period supports our view that economic activity remains weak and that a further GDP contraction in 2Q16 is the most likely outcome.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | The growth in economic activity in Mexico was higher than expected in May

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IGAE grew by 1.0% sa m/m, thanks to the services sector (1.2% m/m, sa). A small (even slightly negative) growth in economic activity is expected for Mexico in 2Q16. In Brazil, the minutes of last week’s MP meeting showed concerns about inflation, which still prevent a cut of the Selic rate. Also in Brazil, the CA deficit remained stable at around 1.7% of GDP in June.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | May’s economic activity to have grown around 0.3% MoM in Mexico

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In Mexico, we expect the IGAE to have grown positively in May, in line with an expansion in the primary, industrial and services sectors. In Colombia, Fitch revised Colombia’s outlook to Negative from Stable while maintaining its rating as 'BBB'. Also today, the minutes of last week’s MP meeting will be released in Brazil.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | A further MPR hike in Colombia to be one of the main news this week

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During this week, the COPOM minutes in Brazil will be released on Tuesday and are expected to signal that the Selic rate will remain stable ahead. In Colombia, the BanRep should deliver another 25bp interest rates hike on Friday. And in Mexico, 2Q16 GDP data will be released, also on Friday.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | Food prices pressure inflation in Brazil

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Mostly due to supply shocks, food inflation climbed to 1.45% MoM in the first weeks of July, accounting for almost 70% of the monthly inflation for the period. As highlighted in this week’s monetary policy meeting, pressure from food prices is one of the main risks to inflation in Brazil.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | The “new” Copom in Brazil leaves the Selic rate unchanged at 14.25%

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In the first meeting under the presidency of Ilan Goldfajn, the BCB decided to leave the Selic rate stable. Moreover, in a more detailed accompanying statement, the monetary authority affirmed that “...there is no room for the easing of monetary policy”, supporting our view that the interest rate will remain unchanged for some further time.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | Selic to remain unchanged in the first policy meeting under Ilan Goldfajn

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In the first monetary policy meeting under the new BCB board, commanded by Ilan Goldfajn, who recently replaced Alexandre Tombini, we expect the Selic rate to be left unchanged at 14.25%, as in the previous meetings. Moreover, we see practically no room for the monetary authority to signal that an easing cycle will start soon.

Available in English