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Kan Chen

 

Kan Chen is a senior economist in the BBVA Research team in the United States. His research fields include monetary economics, international economics, and big data analysis. He produces research reports in these fields, and develops and maintains econometric models for various regional and industry analysis.

 

Chen has published his research papers in prestigious economics journals, including the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control and Economic Letters. He has served as a referee for academic journals, such as the Journal of International Economics and International Review of Economics and Finance.

 

Before joining BBVA Research in 2015, Chen worked for the International Monetary Fund as an econometric modeler on both econometric and macroeconomic models.

 

He earned a Ph.D. in Economics from Vanderbilt University in 2013, and bachelor’s degrees in Finance and Mathematics from Peking University in China in 2005.


Latest Publications

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U.S. | Natural Interest rate: uncertainties and policy implications

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Structural factors explain the secular decline in the natural interest rate. Although the natural interest rate will edge up, it will remain below historical average. Monetary policy normalization will be achieved with a low federal funds rate

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook. August 2017

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Despite supportive economic fundamentals and generous incentives, demand for new vehicles continues to slow down. Consumers continue to show a strong bias towards light-trucks, which reached 63% of total sales in July. The alternative fuel segment continues to expand, a substitution effect is taking place between hybrid-gasoline and increasingly reliable PHEV and BEV.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: infrastructure, inflation and consumer credit

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of August 7, 2017. Special topic: Economic effects of infrastructure policy

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U.S. | From bricks to clicks: e-commerce of today

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E-commerce has enjoyed rapid growth both in quantity and in variety. Still, both online only and traditional brick-and-mortar retailers are important players for total retail sales. In the future, brick-and-mortar stores should make better use of human resources and focus on high value-added services

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: changing face of demographics

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Population growth and ageing in the U.S., and their implications on the economy

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U.S. | Big data analysis: Trump effect on trade narratives

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Public opinions toward certain trade issues have shifted since the election cycle. Policies aimed at reducing trade imbalances seem to have a high priority for the Trump administration

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Auto industry chartbook (March 2017)

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Solid employment growth, stable gasoline prices and low interest rates contributed to robust vehicle sales through the end of 2016. Demand continues to be biased towards light-trucks and away from cars. Auto lending remains healthy, but this could be impacted by future interest rate hikes.

Available in English

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U.S. | The trade deficit: Don’t fear the beast

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Public perception towards the trade deficit has shifted from being fact-based to sentiment-based. Economic pattern of the deficit strongly correlates with the structural shift in the U.S. economy. U.S. has a higher per capita deficit with Ireland and Germany than it does with China or Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Oil Price Outlook (February 2017)

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OPEC output deal may have a limited impact on prices. Going forward, inventory correction and the lagged effect of CAPEX cuts should lead to higher prices. The recovery of U.S. shale production is expected to prevent a steep upturn in prices. Little to no upside from demand. Slow recovery and convergence to $60/bbl.

Available in English

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U.S. | First & Goal for Houston’s Super Bowl

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The net economic impact of Super Bowl LI for Houston will be $69 million. The largest benefit could come from a boost to the city’s brand and image

Available in English

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U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook

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Vehicle sales remain robust due to solid employment growth, low gasoline prices and low interest rates. Leasing continues to be an increasingly preferred form of financing, especially for luxury vehicles. Potential of tax cuts under new administration should help boost auto sales, but this could be offset by the impact of higher interest rates.

Available in English

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U.S. | Interpreting the Fedspeak: FOMC minutes

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The sentiments in FOMC meeting minutes reveal the decision-making process of monetary policies and have a persistent effect on the financial market

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: Home prices, retail sales and jobs

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Weekly economic update focusing on the data to be released the week of October 10, 2016. Special topic: Home prices vs. fundamentals

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U.S. | Oil Price Outlook (October 2016)

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OPEC output deal could have a limited impact on prices. Excess supply will take time to clear out. Downward bias on demand due to slow economic growth and structural trends. Baseline scenario: gradual increase towards $60/bbl.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: Potential GDP, jobs, construction spending and consumer credit

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Weekly economic update focusing on the data to be released the week of October 3, 2016. Special topic: Potential GDP