alert_serviceYour space user_add New user

Forgot your password?
Stay logged in to leave
Publication date
From
To
Manuel Cabezas

Latest Publications

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Robust growth in early 2017 and still low core inflation

By , , , ,

After growing at 0.4% in 4Q16, our MICA-BBVA model continues to estimate a quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone of 0.5% QoQ in 1Q17 and puts a slight upward bias to our projection of 1.6% for this year. Confidence indicators reflect this mood better than activity data. Finally, despite the 2.0% YoY headline inflation in February, core measures remain subdued at 0.9% YoY.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | Global growth points to 0.9%-1% in early 2017

By , , , ,

Global GDP growth continues accelerating in Q1, though our BBVA-GAIN indicator of global growth is slightly lower than a month ago (Q4: 0.85%; Q1: 0.93%). Confidence indicators continue to be very strong and global trade gives signals of further expansion, but industrial production and especially retail sales are more moderate in early year.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model estimates growth to reach 0.5% QoQ in 1Q (2H16: 0.4%) as improving confidence at the start of 2017 suggest that the recovery could be gaining momentum in 1Q17. We have revised slightly upward our growth projections to 1.6% this year and next, though political risks persist.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | More growth, but with old and new risks across regions

By , , , ,

Global growth strengthened in 2H16 (+0.9% QoQ) and it could be gathering pace in 1Q17 (+1.0% QoQ), as our GAIN-model suggests, driven mostly by industrial activity and improving global trade. New quarterly projections remain broadly unchanged, with differences across regions, while risks are tilted to the downside and are mostly of a political nature.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global Watch | Improving activity, but higher uncertainty

By , , , , ,

Global growth has stepped up further in 4Q16 (+0.9% QoQ), as our GAIN-model suggests, driven mostly by industrial activity and stronger confidence along with improving global trade and higher new orders. Nonetheless, risks are tilted to the downside and are linked to politics and protectionism, but also derive from China’s imbalances.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Some changes for the better

By , , , , ,

We continue to see resilience to the various potentially disturbing political events in 2H16. So far, confidence data allow us to be slightly more optimistic. Still more, the recovery of exports and the strength of consumption at the end of 2016 show that positive underlying signs are taking root. Our model suggests GDP to have gained momentum to 0.5%/0.6% QoQ in 4Q16.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Soft data point at growth acceleration in Q4, though downward risks prevail

By , , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model estimates growth to increase to 0.4/0.5% QoQ in 4Q (3Q: 0.3%). Improving confidence proved the EZ resilience after political events since the summer, while data so far suggest a slightly more optimistic outlook for coming months supported by export orders and the depreciation of the euro. However, risks (mostly political) remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | Broadly unchanged global outlook after Trump´s victory, with uncertainty

By , , , , ,

Global growth is expected to gain further momentum in 4Q16 (+0.9% QoQ), as our GAIN-BBVA model suggests, in a context of a better performance of developed countries than emerging economies. Nonetheless, short-term risks continued to be tilted to the downside and mostly political, but also derived from China’s imbalances.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

European Urbanization Trends

By , , ,

The urbanization process in Europe took place rapidly since 1950, but in the 90s it moderated its pace and it will likely be slower during the next ten years. European cities have become in important hubs for education, innovation and knowledge-based economies. Digitalization has been fundamental to increase competitiveness.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Global | Slight improvement amid high uncertainty

By , , , , ,

Global growth accelerated to 0.8% QoQ in 3Q driven by the rebound in the US and the resilience in both EZ and Asia, while the recession in Latam eased. Incoming data points to a strengthening recovery in emerging Asia, mainly supported by domestic demand but also by improving trade while the industrial recovery in developed markets gathers momentum.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Steady recovery, resilient to political uncertainty

By , , , , ,

The moderate pace of economic growth continued in the eurozone in 3Q16 (+0.3% QoQ), in a context of improved external demand and resilience after the uncertainty experienced by mid-year. We maintain our GDP growth projection for the eurozone at 1.6% and 1.5% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | Very gradual improvement in activity

By , , , ,

Downward pressures on global growth seem to have diminished in Q3, but incoming data so far continue to be volatile. Domestic spending is the main driver of EM’s recovery while industrial production seems to gain momentum in DM. Significant improvement in exports in August across the board, but September figures for Asia increased concerns on trade recovery.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | An improvement in the third quarter, with caution

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA indicator estimates quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone to gain some momentum to 0.4% in Q3 (Q2: 0.3%) due to better-than-expected hard data in August that point to stronger private consumption and investment in Q3. However, the still weak global demand and the moderate euro appreciation so far this year could weigh on exports and the industrial sector.

Units:
Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | An improvement is not yet clear

By , , , ,

Downward pressures on global growth seem to have diminished in Q3, but incoming data so far has failed to show a strengthening recovery. Consumption remains the main driver, with incipient signs of improvement in trade that need to be confirmed, while the industrial recovery fails to gain momentum.

Geographies:Global

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Brexit impact should be bounded, higher political and geopolitical risks

By , , , ,

Economic recovery continues at a moderate pace after Brexit, that should be limited through both trade and confidence channel. The ECB is ready to take further measures, likely an extension until September 2017 and a fine-tuning of the QE programme. We maintain our growth forecast at 1.6% in 2016 and revise downwards to 1.5% in 2017.

Units:
Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | GDP growth moderates slightly more than expected in 2Q

By , , ,

GDP growth moderates in the Eurozone to 0.3% QoQ, slightly more than expected, but in line with our forecast of 1.6% growth this year. Anyway, risks remain skewed to the downside due to the possible effects of Brexit during the second half of the year.

Units:
Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Economic Watch - July

By , , , ,

GDP growth in the Eurozone has returned in 2Q16, according to our estimates, to the moderate pace of the recovery of the last two years, following its strong upturn in the first quarter to 0.6% QoQ.

Units:
Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | PMIs suggest a moderation in growth in 2Q16

By , , ,

The slight worsening of composite PMI in May reflects a fall in confidence in the industrial sector, which continues to suffer due to the weakness of global demand and the uncertainty in Europe, while services expectations remain stable. Overall, today’s data point to the expected moderation of GDP growth in 2Q16 to rates of around 0.3% QoQ.

Units:
Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Slight downward GDP revision, but recovery on track

By , , ,

We have revised our GDP growth forecasts for 2016-17 slightly downwards to 1.6% and 1.9%, respectively, due to a still weak global demand together with a somewhat stronger euro and ever decreasing support from commodity prices, which are not being offset by the new easing of monetary policy and the marginally expansive fiscal policy. The risks are tilted to the downside.

Units:
Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English