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Manuel Cabezas

Manuel Cabezas is an economist at Global Macroeconomic Scenarios Unit at BBVA Research since 2017. Previously, he worked as a research assistant at Europe Unit.

 

He obtained a bachelor degree in Economics from University of Seville in 2014, conducting his exchange program at the University of Pavia. In 2014, he began the preparation for the public competitive exams to join the Economists and Trade Technicians Senior Corps of the State of Spain at CECO (Centre for Economic and Commercial Studies).


Latest Publications

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Eurozone | Higher growth and more subdued inflation in 2017-18

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a steady growth in 3Q17 (0.6% QoQ). We revised upwards growth forecast to 2.2% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018 driven by strong data and domestic factors, although political uncertainty is high. Headline inflation forecasts are revised slightly down to 1.5% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018. The ECB is likely to embark in a gradual normalization in early 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | A more synchronized recovery

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Recent data point to a broadly unchanged global scenario (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ in 2H17). Our new projections are unchanged for the US despite hurricanes and political uncertainty and indicate more positive outlooks for China and the Eurozone this year. Central banks continue their very gradual normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Growth expected to stabilize in 3Q on strong confidence

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a quarterly GDP growth figure of 0.6% in 3Q, but we cannot rule out a slight moderation given weaker hard data. Both industrial output and retails sales softened in July, while exports have also moderate during 3Q. In contrast, overall confidence data remain optimistic. Annual inflation accelerated in August to 1.5% with stable core measures.

Available in Spanish, English

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The global economy stabilizes and reaches a robust and synchronized growth pace

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Global GDP accelerated slightly in 2Q17 (1% QoQ) while recent data suggest that it could maintain its dynamism in 2H17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1%). Both industrial output and exports have disappointed at the beginning of 3Q, but forward-looking indicators suggest a still positive outlook. All in all, the global economy shows improved synchronization across major blocks.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Upward revision of GDP with a broad-based recovery

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests that GDP growth could have improved again in 2Q (0.7% QoQ) as strong confidence has been met by better hard data. We have revised upwards GDP forecast for 2017 (by 0.3pp to 2.0%), though we continue to expect some moderation for 2018 (1.7%). The ECB is expected to embark in a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Political risk has eased.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Positive outlook, with projections revised across areas

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Robust and steady global growth in 2Q (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ) with some rebalancing among the major areas. Confidence and global trade growth seem to stabilize at high levels, supporting the ongoing recovery of the industrial sector. New projections for 2017-18 are revised upwards in the Eurozone and China and downwards in US. Risks remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Growth momentum stabilizes in 2Q at high levels

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GDP growth was revised up to 0.6% QoQ (+0.1pp) in Q1, while improving industrial production along with very strong confidence suggest that the growth momentum will remain steady in Q2 (MICA-BBVA: 0.6%). Recently, foreign trade and retail sales have moderated slightly. Headline and core inflation declined in May, reversing the Easter calendar effect and remain subdued.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | The recovery shows signs of stabilisation

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Global GDP growth continues to improve in Q2 (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ) but with signs of stabilization. Confidence data remain very strong, but are levelling off and the upward trend in exports and industrial output has moderated at the beginning of Q2. Moreover, the latest data suggest that positive signs are shifting from the US and China to Europe and other emerging economies

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | The outlook remains positive as political risks ease

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GDP grew 0.5% QoQ in 1Q while soft data suggests higher momentum in 2Q (BBVAe: 0.6% QoQ) and foreign trade is strong. But industrial output and retail sales decelerated in 1Q. Inflation pressures are still distant as wages growth remains subdued. Despite the more upbeat outlook and the ease of political uncertainty, risks to short-term growth remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global growth is still gaining momentum in 2Q17, but there are some signs of stabilisation

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Global growth accelerated in 1Q to 0.9% QoQ and 2Q data so far suggest further global momentum (1% QoQ). Confidence data remain very positive, especially for developed economies, while hard data point to higher investment. Moreover, the exports recovery remains on track, partly explained by upward trend in investment in recent quarters.

Available in Spanish, English

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The internationalisation and digitalisation of the portuguese economy

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Dual economy in which many firms do not promote the accumulation of human capital,innovation and trade in international markets. The size of firms and its determinants, product market regulations and the environment for doing business are of paramount importance. All this in a more globalised world economy undergoing an unprecedented and disruptive technological revolution

Geographies:Portugal

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Global | Positive dynamics lead to an upward revision in projections

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Global GDP growth maintains its positive trend in 1H17 as our BBVA-GAIN indicator suggests (close to 1% QoQ). Confidence and global trade continue to point a further expansion, but signals given by hard data are not yet clear. New projections for 2017-18 are revised upwards in China, more moderately in EZ, with no changes in the US.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | A more upbeat outlook, but still surrounded by (mostly political) risks

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Our MICA-BBVA model estimates growth at 0.5% QoQ in 1Q as improving confidence continued at earlier 2017. Hard data begin to moderate, though foreign trade clearly recovers. Growth forecasts for 2017-18 are revised slightly upwards to 1.7% (+0.1pp) in both years, fostered by higher growth in global demand although risks, mostly political, remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Robust growth in early 2017 and still low core inflation

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After growing at 0.4% in 4Q16, our MICA-BBVA model continues to estimate a quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone of 0.5% QoQ in 1Q17 and puts a slight upward bias to our projection of 1.6% for this year. Confidence indicators reflect this mood better than activity data. Finally, despite the 2.0% YoY headline inflation in February, core measures remain subdued at 0.9% YoY.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Global growth points to 0.9%-1% in early 2017

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Global GDP growth continues accelerating in Q1, though our BBVA-GAIN indicator of global growth is slightly lower than a month ago (Q4: 0.85%; Q1: 0.93%). Confidence indicators continue to be very strong and global trade gives signals of further expansion, but industrial production and especially retail sales are more moderate in early year.

Available in Spanish, English