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Marcial Nava
•BBVA Research Department since 2004 (2005- US Team)
•Post Baccalaureate Program in Dynamic Econometric Models (ITAM)
•B.A. Economics (CIDE)

Latest Publications

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U.S. | Oil Prices Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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The geopolitical premium marked the evolution of oil prices in 2Q18. OPEC may decide to boost production to compensate the shortfall left by Iran and Venezuela. Prices will remain supported by robust demand from China, India and the US. We continue to expect convergence to long-term equilibrium as demand growth converges to historical trend and US export capacity expands.

Available in English

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The United States and Iran’s oil

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President Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the nuclear agreement with Iran has generated unease in the markets. The price of Brent crude was close to US$80 per barrel in the days following the announcement, a level not seen in the last four years. The withdrawal from the agreement by the U.S. means the re-establishment of the economic sanctions imposed on Iran

Available in Spanish, English

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Electric vehicles: the race for the mass market

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The car industry is definitely turning to developing and marketing electric vehicles. Worldwide, the investment already announced is around $90 billion, and it is forecast to continue growing. It is also expected that big car manufacturers will have dozens of new electric models on sale to the public in the next few years.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook 1Q18

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Economic fundamentals and financial conditions remain supportive of demand. However, increasing off-lease returns will continue to exert downward pressures on sales and prices of new vehicles.

Available in English

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U.S. | Oil Prices Outlook. First quarter 2018

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Financial market volatility and concerns on raising U.S. production have weighted on prices through 1Q18. However, fundamentals have not changed significantly; thus, we maintain our baseline scenario. Demand will remain supportive of higher prices, but its impact will be compensated by growing non-OPEC supply.

Available in English

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U.S. | Natural gas prices after the shale boom

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Shale production fundamentally altered the relationship between oil and natural gas prices. Although most of the natural gas produced is consumed domestically, exports have also flourished. Henry Hub natural gas prices are likely to increase gradually supported by solid demand

Available in Spanish, English

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Will oil prices continue to rise in 2018?

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Finally things came together for the oil market after a three-year slump characterised by a sharp fall in prices, and their subsequent stagnation at relatively low levels.

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Oil Prices Outlook 2018-2022. December 2017

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Further price increases in the short-run supported by robust demand and inventory correction. Geopolitical factors could lift prices further. In the mid-term, supply is expected to catch up with higher prices, intensifying the fight for market share.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: oil prices, personal income and spending

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of December 18, 2017. Special topic: oil price outlook

Geographies:USA

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U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook. Fourth quarter 2017

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The replacement of vehicles damaged or destroyed by recent hurricanes boosted auto sales in September and October. However, after the one-time effect of hurricanes recedes, sales of new vehicles are likely to return to a more modest path due to rising interest rates and lower prices of pre-owned units.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: blockchain and consumer credit

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of November 6, 2017. Special topic: the future of blockchain

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U.S. | Blockchain: The Road to Utopia

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Non-financial blockchain applications are growing exponentially. Transaction costs will decline considerably, thereby impacting the role of intermediaries. The blockchain is expected to set the basis for better economic, social and political systems

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Economic impact of Hurricanes Harvey & Irma

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Gross losses could reach $111bn for Texas and $52bn for Florida. However, the net economic impact will be modest after reconstruction is completed. Overdevelopment and fast population growth in low-lying coastal areas increase disaster potential. The biggest challenge for Houston is to maintain its long-term attractiveness

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Impact of Hurricane Harvey on the economy of Texas

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The sun has come out again in the east of Texas as stock taking of the physical damage caused by the passage of Hurricane Harvey continues. Harvey will be remembered as one of the most destructive storms in the history of the US. Given the extent of the damage, there is growing interest in the repercussions that Harvey will have for the regional and national economy

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: economic impact of Hurricane Harvey and manufacturing

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of September 4, 2017. Special topic: economic impact of Hurricane Harvey

Geographies:USA