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Marcial Nava
•BBVA Research Department since 2004 (2005- US Team)
•Post Baccalaureate Program in Dynamic Econometric Models (ITAM)
•B.A. Economics (CIDE)

Latest Publications

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U.S. | Economic impact of Hurricanes Harvey & Irma

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Gross losses could reach $111bn for Texas and $52bn for Florida. However, the net economic impact will be modest after reconstruction is completed. Overdevelopment and fast population growth in low-lying coastal areas increase disaster potential. The biggest challenge for Houston is to maintain its long-term attractiveness

Available in Spanish, English

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Impact of Hurricane Harvey on the economy of Texas

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The sun has come out again in the east of Texas as stock taking of the physical damage caused by the passage of Hurricane Harvey continues. Harvey will be remembered as one of the most destructive storms in the history of the US. Given the extent of the damage, there is growing interest in the repercussions that Harvey will have for the regional and national economy

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: economic impact of Hurricane Harvey and manufacturing

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of September 4, 2017. Special topic: economic impact of Hurricane Harvey

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U.S. | Economic impact of Hurricane Harvey

By , , ,

Gross losses could reach $111bn for Texas and $52bn for Florida. However, the net economic impact will be modest after reconstruction is completed. Overdevelopment and fast population growth in low-lying coastal areas increase disaster potential. The biggest challenge for Houston is to maintain its long-term attractiveness

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: autos, employment and income

By ,

Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of August 28, 2017. Special topic: the state of the auto market

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Renewable Energy: the answer is blowing in the wind

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The use of fossil fuels in electricity production is being eroded by the rapid expansion of clean energy. At the global level, installed capacity to generate electricity through wind energy has increased fivefold since 2007, reaching 487GW in 2016. Wind energy is becoming more competitive.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook. August 2017

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Despite supportive economic fundamentals and generous incentives, demand for new vehicles continues to slow down. Consumers continue to show a strong bias towards light-trucks, which reached 63% of total sales in July. The alternative fuel segment continues to expand, a substitution effect is taking place between hybrid-gasoline and increasingly reliable PHEV and BEV.

Available in English

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U.S. | The Permian basin and the rebound in U.S. crude oil production

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U.S. crude oil production continues to increase, complicating efforts made by OPEC and its partners to stabilize the market through output cuts. After reaching a bottom in July 2016, U.S. production has surged by 969,000 b/d to 9.4 million b/d as of July 7 2017. At this pace, production could surpass its previous peak of 9.6 million b/d sometime in what remains of 2017.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: renewables, the answer is blowin’ in the wind

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The outlook for global wind energy is positive. Although government support will continue to play an important role in the development of the wind energy projects, ongoing productivity gains are expected to make subsidies and tax breaks less relevant over time.

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Renewables: The answer is blowin’ in the wind

By , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The prevalence of fossil fuels in the production of electricity is being challenged by the rapid expansion of renewable sources such as wind and solar. Around the world, wind energy capacity has increased fivefold since 2007, reaching 487GW in 2016

Available in Spanish, English

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Banking and the fight against climate change

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The fight against climate change is one of the greatest challenges currently facing mankind. From the socio-economic point of view, the panorama is alarming. Experts warn that a sustained increase in the average temperature on Earth would have serious effects for millions of people

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: risks and opportunities in climate change

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Discussion on the role of the banking industry in the fight against climate change

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U.S. | Risks and Opportunities in Climate Change

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The world economy is transitioning to a carbon-free paradigm triggered by the potentially disastrous effects of climate change. In the following years, vast amounts of capital will be allocated to mitigation and adaptation projects. With the right strategy, the opportunities for the banking industry could outweigh the risks

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Auto industry chartbook (March 2017)

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Solid employment growth, stable gasoline prices and low interest rates contributed to robust vehicle sales through the end of 2016. Demand continues to be biased towards light-trucks and away from cars. Auto lending remains healthy, but this could be impacted by future interest rate hikes.

Available in English

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U.S. | The road ahead for electric vehicles

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Electric vehicles have become more reliable and attractive due to technological progress and government support. However, prospects for mass adoption are still constrained by technological limitations, charging infrastructure, policy uncertainty and oil prices

Available in Spanish, English