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Marcial Nava
•BBVA Research Department since 2004 (2005- US Team)
•Post Baccalaureate Program in Dynamic Econometric Models (ITAM)
•B.A. Economics (CIDE)

Latest Publications

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Will oil prices continue to rise in 2018?

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Finally things came together for the oil market after a three-year slump characterised by a sharp fall in prices, and their subsequent stagnation at relatively low levels.

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Oil Prices Outlook 2018-2022. December 2017

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Further price increases in the short-run supported by robust demand and inventory correction. Geopolitical factors could lift prices further. In the mid-term, supply is expected to catch up with higher prices, intensifying the fight for market share.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: oil prices, personal income and spending

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of December 18, 2017. Special topic: oil price outlook

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U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook. Fourth quarter 2017

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The replacement of vehicles damaged or destroyed by recent hurricanes boosted auto sales in September and October. However, after the one-time effect of hurricanes recedes, sales of new vehicles are likely to return to a more modest path due to rising interest rates and lower prices of pre-owned units.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: blockchain and consumer credit

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of November 6, 2017. Special topic: the future of blockchain

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U.S. | Blockchain: The Road to Utopia

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Non-financial blockchain applications are growing exponentially. Transaction costs will decline considerably, thereby impacting the role of intermediaries. The blockchain is expected to set the basis for better economic, social and political systems

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Economic impact of Hurricanes Harvey & Irma

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Gross losses could reach $111bn for Texas and $52bn for Florida. However, the net economic impact will be modest after reconstruction is completed. Overdevelopment and fast population growth in low-lying coastal areas increase disaster potential. The biggest challenge for Houston is to maintain its long-term attractiveness

Available in Spanish, English

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Impact of Hurricane Harvey on the economy of Texas

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The sun has come out again in the east of Texas as stock taking of the physical damage caused by the passage of Hurricane Harvey continues. Harvey will be remembered as one of the most destructive storms in the history of the US. Given the extent of the damage, there is growing interest in the repercussions that Harvey will have for the regional and national economy

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: economic impact of Hurricane Harvey and manufacturing

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of September 4, 2017. Special topic: economic impact of Hurricane Harvey

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U.S. | Economic impact of Hurricane Harvey

By , , ,

Gross losses could reach $111bn for Texas and $52bn for Florida. However, the net economic impact will be modest after reconstruction is completed. Overdevelopment and fast population growth in low-lying coastal areas increase disaster potential. The biggest challenge for Houston is to maintain its long-term attractiveness

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: autos, employment and income

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of August 28, 2017. Special topic: the state of the auto market

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Renewable Energy: the answer is blowing in the wind

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The use of fossil fuels in electricity production is being eroded by the rapid expansion of clean energy. At the global level, installed capacity to generate electricity through wind energy has increased fivefold since 2007, reaching 487GW in 2016. Wind energy is becoming more competitive.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook. August 2017

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Despite supportive economic fundamentals and generous incentives, demand for new vehicles continues to slow down. Consumers continue to show a strong bias towards light-trucks, which reached 63% of total sales in July. The alternative fuel segment continues to expand, a substitution effect is taking place between hybrid-gasoline and increasingly reliable PHEV and BEV.

Available in English

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U.S. | The Permian basin and the rebound in U.S. crude oil production

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U.S. crude oil production continues to increase, complicating efforts made by OPEC and its partners to stabilize the market through output cuts. After reaching a bottom in July 2016, U.S. production has surged by 969,000 b/d to 9.4 million b/d as of July 7 2017. At this pace, production could surpass its previous peak of 9.6 million b/d sometime in what remains of 2017.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: renewables, the answer is blowin’ in the wind

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The outlook for global wind energy is positive. Although government support will continue to play an important role in the development of the wind energy projects, ongoing productivity gains are expected to make subsidies and tax breaks less relevant over time.