Marlon Broncano is Economist of BBVA Research Peru. His specialty is the analysis and projections of macroeconomic variables using econometric models and financial programming.
Previously to this position, Marlon Broncano was External Sector Analyst in General Directorate of Macroeconomic Policy of the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Peru.
He is currently a student of the Master in Economics at Pontifical Catholic University of Peru and has a degree in Economics from National University of Piura. He has taken courses organized by the International Monetary Fund, as well as courses in the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and the Economic and Social Research Consortium.
Lima's Consumer Price Index rose 0.46% m/m in July, above market expectations (Bloomberg Consensus: 0.06% m/m). With July's monthly result, year-on-year inflation accelerated to 1.9%, compared to 1.6% the previous month.
Isolation measures imposed in order to contain the propagation of the coronavirus are having a strong impact on GDP. In this context, we expect it to contract this year between -18% and -12%, with a rebound between 6,5% and 10,5% in 2021 that will, however, be insufficient to reach the level of activity observed in 2019.
Our forecasts have been revised to incorporate the macroeconomic impact on the Peruvian economy of the measures to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. As a result, we estimate that GDP will contract between 5% and 8% in 2020, with a downward bias. A significant rebound will take place next year.