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Nathaniel Karp
BBVA Research Department since 1999 (2005- US Team)
•The World Bank, Ministry of Education, Republic Bank
•BA Studies Economics (ITAM)
•MsC & PhD Studies Economics (Warwick)

Latest Publications

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Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Tax reform and home prices: Is there a cause for concern?

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The net effect of the proposed tax changes on house prices will be limited. Doubling the standard deduction will increase the incentives to rent. The lower cap on mortgage interest deduction can lower prices of homes in higher price ranges over time. Other tax proposals will tighten housing market conditions and generate upward pressures on home prices.

Available in Spanish, English

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FOMC Meeting December 12th-13th

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FOMC: Passing the Baton for Final Phase of Normalization

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Natural Interest Rates in the U.S., Canada and Mexico

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The U.S. and Canada show a downward trend in their natural interest rates; Mexico’s remains stable. The non-growth factor matters the most for Mexico, while the growth factor matters the most for Canada. The comovement of r-stars is high for the U.S. and Canada. The prospect of increasing natural interest rates for the U.S. will affect both Canada and Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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The Next Federal Reserve Chair: YOU’RE HIRED!!!

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The FOMC is poised to undergo a nontrivial change in leadership and composition with four new regional Fed members rotating into voting roles and with a potential change in leadership. There are also three additional governor’s seats and potentially four vacancies –depending if Chair Yellen stays– that President Trump could fill

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Blockchain: The Road to Utopia

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Non-financial blockchain applications are growing exponentially. Transaction costs will decline considerably, thereby impacting the role of intermediaries. The blockchain is expected to set the basis for better economic, social and political systems

Available in Spanish, English

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FOMC Meeting September 19th-20th

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FOMC strategy afloat: stable outlook, balance sheet normalization, and realigned expectations

Geographies:USA

Available in English

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U.S. | Economic impact of Hurricanes Harvey & Irma

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Gross losses could reach $111bn for Texas and $52bn for Florida. However, the net economic impact will be modest after reconstruction is completed. Overdevelopment and fast population growth in low-lying coastal areas increase disaster potential. The biggest challenge for Houston is to maintain its long-term attractiveness

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Credit cards: trends, profitability and outlook

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Credit card debt continues expanding at a solid pace, while fundamentals remain favorable. Credit cards can be more profitable than other banking operations but also riskier. We expect credit card debt growth to moderate. Competition will intensify, particularly on rewards, incentives and benefits

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Economic impact of Hurricane Harvey

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Gross losses could reach $111bn for Texas and $52bn for Florida. However, the net economic impact will be modest after reconstruction is completed. Overdevelopment and fast population growth in low-lying coastal areas increase disaster potential. The biggest challenge for Houston is to maintain its long-term attractiveness

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Natural Interest rate: uncertainties and policy implications

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Structural factors explain the secular decline in the natural interest rate. Although the natural interest rate will edge up, it will remain below historical average. Monetary policy normalization will be achieved with a low federal funds rate

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Residential construction: ready for final inspection

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A rebound in household formation could lead to an increase in housing demand. The supply of new units is likely to increase to 1.4 million per year from 1.2 million currently. Building restrictions in attractive metropolitan areas will support construction activity in other areas

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S | FOMC Meeting July 25th-26th

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July meeting opportunity for Fed to keep markets aligned with a gradual tightening path

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Renewables: The answer is blowin’ in the wind

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The prevalence of fossil fuels in the production of electricity is being challenged by the rapid expansion of renewable sources such as wind and solar. Around the world, wind energy capacity has increased fivefold since 2007, reaching 487GW in 2016

Available in Spanish, English

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FOMC June 13-14 Meeting: Wonder Woman Brings Hope to Markets

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In a widely anticipated move, for a third consecutive quarter, the FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate 25bp to 1.25%, as the labor market continued to tighten in the Committee’s eyes despite some slowing job gains over the past months

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English