Paulo Sánchez is a senior economist at BBVA Research for Colombia. He is responsible for sector analysis and the forecasting of sector variables.Previously, Paulo was a senior research analyst at the Colombian Stock Exchange dealing with the development of econometric models for the prediction of financial and economic variables. He also worked as a senior professional in the development of predictive models at Banco Davivienda and was research assistant at Fedesarrollo and the econometric unit of Banco de la República.He obtained his degree of economist at the Colombian School of Engineering "Julio Garavito" and then obtained a specialization in statistics at Univesidad Nacional de Colombia. He has a master's degree in applied economics from the Universidad de los Andes and is IBM Data Science Profesisonal Certicate.
Colombia started its recovery path after the strong second quarter shock due to the pandemic. This process will be slow and gradual and will be determined by sector openings approved by the national and local governments. GDP is expected to fall by 7.5% this year and to recover by 5.5% in 2021.
Colombian GDP will contract around 3% in 2020, as a result of COVID-19 and oil price reduction. Due to confinement, sectors will reduce output with effects on employment and social indicators. Inflation will moderate driven by a weak demand and despite the exchange rate depreciation. The central bank will reduce rates.