Searcher
Rodolfo Méndez-Marcano
Rodolfo Méndez-Marcano
Principal Economist
Spain

Rodolfo Méndez-Marcano is Principal Economist in BBVA Research, where he is currently responsible for expanding, adaptating improving and managing the statistical tools necessary to ensure the global consistency among the macroeconomic and financial forecasts and risk scenarios designed by BBVA Research for the many economies relevant to the Group management.


Additionally, he coordinates collaborative projects with international scholars and public institutions for expanding and improving the macro-quantitative tools necessary to assess the impact of Governments' macroeconomic and financial policies and reforms on the macreconomic and financial variables of the latter economies.


He has been consultant in statistical and macroeconomic issues for the Central Bank and Finance Ministry of Venezuela and several Development Banks and multilateral organizations, and has taught macroeconomics and econometrics in Venezuelan and Spanish universities.


He is Phd in Statistics by Universidad Simón Bolívar and has got a Master in Economics by Universitat Pompeu Fabra. He is the author of the textbook "Macroeconomics and Oil", published by Pearson/Prentice-Hall (Mexico, 2008) and other publications focused in the study of oil and emerging economies.

Latest publications

This report presents an analysis of those global shocks, most of low probability, which may have severe effects on the economy. The balance of risks continues to be tilted to the downside due to trade tensions (impact on China) and increasing probability of recession in the US.
This paper quantifies and analyses the interrelationship between the economic activity (GDP) of each Spanish region in response to the variation in economic activity of the remaining regions and to oil price shocks. The regional GVAR model developed offers great potential for many lines of analysis and the monitoring and projection of regional economic activity.
The balance of risks has deteriorated on the back of growth concerns in the US and China. A global trade war continues to be relevant despite the current truce, while a resurface of debt tensions in the Eurozone should not be ruled out yet due to high political instability. On a positive note, the U-turn in the Fed’s stance reduces the likelihood of overshooting.