July 24, 2019
We expect a GDP growth to slow from 1.9% to 1.1% in 2019 and remain relatively stable at 1.2% in 2020 due to easing monetary policy and slightly fiscal stimulus, which should offset shocks from trade war and industrial sector (autos). Risks are tilted to the downside (hard Brexit and increasing global protectionism)
July 18, 2019
Global | Updated forecasts: World growth to soft land, amid trade tensions and stimulus
Global growth continues in a smooth downward path, led by the weakness of the industrial sector and exports due to trade tensions. Persistent low inflation led central banks to reassess their monetary policy stance. We revised downward our world GDP forecast 0.1pp to 3.3% for 2019 and 2020, with strongly downward risks
May 31, 2019
Eurozone | Growth gained momentum in 1Q19, but trending to moderate amid increasing risks
Hard data up to March point to domestic demand as the main driver of growth supported by the resilience of consumers and improving labour market. The better performance of exports to other EU countries offset the decline of those to Asia, raising doubts about foreign support and the sustainability of industrial growth.