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Rodrigo Falbo

Latest Publications

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Eurozone | A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks

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Confidence seem to level off pointing to a steady growth in 2H18. The 1Q18 slowdown in activity added to increasing uncertainty and higher commodity prices lead us to slash GDP growth forecasts to 2% and 1.7% in 2018-19. Higher oil prices and a weaker euro increase our headline inflation forecasts to 1.7% and 1.8% for this year and next. Trade war risks have intensified.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Steady global growth, but risks intensify

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Global growth remains steady and our World GDP projections remain unchanged at 3.8% for both 2018-19, but with more divergence across areas. The US continues strong and China should decelerate as expected, but we have revised down growth for the Eurozone. Risks have increased and above all, protectionism could trim growth in the quarters ahead.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Growth moderation has continued in Q2 and headline inflation has shot up

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The Eurozone could grow at about 0.4% QoQ in the second quarter after a similar figure in 1Q18, according to our BBVA-MICA model. This poses a downward bias to our 2.3% growth forecast for 2018. Inflation accelerated rapidly in May (1.9%) due to higher commodity prices and the euro depreciation, but the core component has progressed as expected to 1.3%.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Growth is still holding up despite increasing uncertainty

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Global growth remains on a strong footing at the beginning of 2Q18 despite the high levels of uncertainty, especially coming from trade news. Hard data and sentiment indicators remain solid but with growing differences across areas. Inflation surged in advanced economies on higher commodity prices while monetary policy normalization continues.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | More moderate growth with higher uncertainty

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Growth slowed in 1Q18 to 0.4% QoQ, more than expected. Hard data picked up somewhat in March, but sentiment data continues to be hesitant up to May. Our BBVA-MICA model projects growth to remain around 0.4% in 2Q18, and imply a downward bias on our 2.3% annual GDP growth projection.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Growth continues to be strong in 2Q18, with higher uncertainty

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Positive global momentum continued at the beginning of 2Q18, but in a context of greater uncertainty. Hard data indicators have been mixed with robust industrial production but more hesitant private consumption and global trade. Across large areas, US data has been positive while the EZ is stabilizing after a disappointing 1Q and China is decelerating very slowly

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks

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Confidence weakened in 1Q18 and hard data start to reflect this softer mood, although fundamentals remain robust. We keep our growth forecasts broadly unchanged, reaching 2.3% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019. Inflation is expected to hover around 1.5% during 2018-19 but increasing gradually, driven by core components. Risks are tilted to increased protectionism.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Growth remains firm but risks intensify

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The strength of the world economy is being exposed to divergent forces that have intensified global risks. Fiscal stimulus approved in the US will likely spur growth in other areas, but protectionism poses a risk. We maintain our forecasts for global growth unchanged at 3.8% for 2018-19 with some adjustments across regions. To complement our analysis we add a brief note.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Strong momentum continues in 1Q18 driven by trade, despite some weaker data in DM

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Our BBVA-GAIN model projects the world GDP to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18, up from 0.9% in 4Q17. Global exports strengthened significantly in February, but industrial output and retail sales were modest in early 2018. Confidence remains at high level in 1Q18 so far, but showing some signs of moderation.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | The moderation of confidence continues

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a cruise speed growth in 1Q18 at 0.6/0.7% QoQ, supported by strong global trade and fixed investment. Despite solid fundamentals, we observed early signs of moderation as weak hard data in January adds to a cooled optimism in 1Q. Annual inflation eased again to 1.1% in February driven by food, while the core figure remained steady at 1.2%.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Strong growth continues in 1Q18 but confidence seems to peak

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GDP growth moderated in 4Q17 but increased above potential for the third year in a row (+2.5% in 2017). Hard data improved by the end of last year but sentiment indicators moderated in February. Our MICA-BBVA model estimates an upturn in growth to around 0.6/0.7% QoQ for 1Q18. We continue to expect a gradual slowdown over the year to a still strong growth of 2.2% in 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Growth momentum continues, with some signs of exhaustion in confidence levels

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Global growth slows slightly in 4Q17, but remains robust. According to our GAIN-model, GDP is projected to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18 after 0.9% in 4Q17. Strong momentum is shared by the three main areas, but confidence may have reached its peak in the Eurozone. Core inflation showed slight upward pressures in advanced economies.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19

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Our MICA-BBVA model estimates steady growth in 4Q17 (0.6/0.7% QoQ). We revised up our growth forecast to 2.2% in 2018 given strengthened domestic factors and better global outlook. Our inflation forecast increased to 1.5% due to higher oil prices but keeping a view of gradual pick-up in core prices. We still expect a gradual normalization of monetary policy during 2018-19.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Widespread upward revision of growth forecasts in 2018

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Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks continue with a gradual normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | The sustainability of the global growth is more evident

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Official GDP figures have been revised up in 3Q to 1.02% QoQ, which implies a higher projection for 4Q17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1.04%). Further gains in confidence are not fully reflected in hard data. Global trade recovery continues, but at a slower pace. Global headline inflation accelerated in November driven by volatile components, but core pressures remained subdued.

Available in Spanish, English