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Rodrigo Falbo

Latest Publications

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Eurozone | Solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks

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Confidence weakened in 1Q18 and hard data start to reflect this softer mood, although fundamentals remain robust. We keep our growth forecasts broadly unchanged, reaching 2.3% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019. Inflation is expected to hover around 1.5% during 2018-19 but increasing gradually, driven by core components. Risks are tilted to increased protectionism.

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Global | Growth remains firm but risks intensify

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The strength of the world economy is being exposed to divergent forces that have intensified global risks. Fiscal stimulus approved in the US will likely spur growth in other areas, but protectionism poses a risk. We maintain our forecasts for global growth unchanged at 3.8% for 2018-19 with some adjustments across regions. To complement our analysis we add a brief note.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Strong momentum continues in 1Q18 driven by trade, despite some weaker data in DM

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Our BBVA-GAIN model projects the world GDP to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18, up from 0.9% in 4Q17. Global exports strengthened significantly in February, but industrial output and retail sales were modest in early 2018. Confidence remains at high level in 1Q18 so far, but showing some signs of moderation.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | The moderation of confidence continues

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a cruise speed growth in 1Q18 at 0.6/0.7% QoQ, supported by strong global trade and fixed investment. Despite solid fundamentals, we observed early signs of moderation as weak hard data in January adds to a cooled optimism in 1Q. Annual inflation eased again to 1.1% in February driven by food, while the core figure remained steady at 1.2%.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Strong growth continues in 1Q18 but confidence seems to peak

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GDP growth moderated in 4Q17 but increased above potential for the third year in a row (+2.5% in 2017). Hard data improved by the end of last year but sentiment indicators moderated in February. Our MICA-BBVA model estimates an upturn in growth to around 0.6/0.7% QoQ for 1Q18. We continue to expect a gradual slowdown over the year to a still strong growth of 2.2% in 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Growth momentum continues, with some signs of exhaustion in confidence levels

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Global growth slows slightly in 4Q17, but remains robust. According to our GAIN-model, GDP is projected to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18 after 0.9% in 4Q17. Strong momentum is shared by the three main areas, but confidence may have reached its peak in the Eurozone. Core inflation showed slight upward pressures in advanced economies.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19

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Our MICA-BBVA model estimates steady growth in 4Q17 (0.6/0.7% QoQ). We revised up our growth forecast to 2.2% in 2018 given strengthened domestic factors and better global outlook. Our inflation forecast increased to 1.5% due to higher oil prices but keeping a view of gradual pick-up in core prices. We still expect a gradual normalization of monetary policy during 2018-19.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Widespread upward revision of growth forecasts in 2018

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Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks continue with a gradual normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | The sustainability of the global growth is more evident

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Official GDP figures have been revised up in 3Q to 1.02% QoQ, which implies a higher projection for 4Q17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1.04%). Further gains in confidence are not fully reflected in hard data. Global trade recovery continues, but at a slower pace. Global headline inflation accelerated in November driven by volatile components, but core pressures remained subdued.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | GDP projected at 0.6%-0.7% in 4Q puts an upward bias to our forecasts

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Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a GDP growth at 0.6%-0.7% in 4Q, signaling a steady pace or mild acceleration. Confidence increased further in December to record levels. Hard data were somewhat disappointing in October, but these not seem to affect the underlying trend. Inflation increased slightly to 1.5% but the core measure remained stable and subdued at 1.1% in November.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Improved outlook, still subdued inflation

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a steady growth pace in 4Q (0.6%/0.7% QoQ), so far supported by very strong confidence, with more mixed signals from hard data. Positive incoming data, mostly from Germany, pose an upward bias to our growth outlook. Both headline and core inflation eased and remain subdued in October, while our forecasts continue at 1.5% and 1.2% for 2017-18.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Global growth continues on a strong footing

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Global GDP growth slowed slightly in 3Q to 0.9% QoQ, but our BBVA-GAIN model suggests the solid global recovery continues in 4Q (1% QoQ). Confidence indicators improved further while industrial output and retail sales moderated in 3Q and global trade provided further signals of stabilization. Global inflation remained stable in October, accelerating in EM but slowing in DM

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Higher growth and more subdued inflation in 2017-18

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a steady growth in 3Q17 (0.6% QoQ). We revised upwards growth forecast to 2.2% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018 driven by strong data and domestic factors, although political uncertainty is high. Headline inflation forecasts are revised slightly down to 1.5% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018. The ECB is likely to embark in a gradual normalization in early 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | A more synchronized recovery

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Recent data point to a broadly unchanged global scenario (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ in 2H17). Our new projections are unchanged for the US despite hurricanes and political uncertainty and indicate more positive outlooks for China and the Eurozone this year. Central banks continue their very gradual normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Growth expected to stabilize in 3Q on strong confidence

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a quarterly GDP growth figure of 0.6% in 3Q, but we cannot rule out a slight moderation given weaker hard data. Both industrial output and retails sales softened in July, while exports have also moderate during 3Q. In contrast, overall confidence data remain optimistic. Annual inflation accelerated in August to 1.5% with stable core measures.

Available in Spanish, English