Searcher
Rodrigo Falbo
Rodrigo Falbo
Principal Economist
Spain

Latest publications

EZ GDP growth is expected to slow slightly further to 0.1% QoQ in 2H19. Available data so far show worsening exports, especially those to other EU countries, and industrial output. There are further signs on more moderate consumption and subdued investment despite improving labour market and favorable financing conditions.
Global growth slowed markedly in 2Q19, with weakening signs stemming from China and the EZ. Increasing trade tensions and higher uncertainty are weighing on trade and the industrial sector, but are also reflected in investment and domestic demand. Weaker momentum extends into 3Q19.
We expect a GDP growth to slow from 1.9% to 1.1% in 2019 and remain relatively stable at 1.2% in 2020 due to easing monetary policy and slightly fiscal stimulus, which should offset shocks from trade war and industrial sector (autos). Risks are tilted to the downside (hard Brexit and increasing global protectionism)