Serkan Kocabas
Serkan Kocabas

Serkan Kocabas started his position as an Economist in BBVA in November 2017. His main responsibility is the macroeconomic analysis of Turkey; including macroeconomic modeling and forecasting. Previous to the position, Serkan Kocabas worked in Ernst and Young as a Consultant, focusing on foreign trade trend analysis. He also worked as an intern at UNICEF.

He obtained his master degree in Macroeconomic Analysis and Financial Markets from Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, a University Research Institute attached to the UPF and to the UAB and his bachelor degree in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU).

Latest publications

Turkish unemployment data is published with a significant delay (nearly three months), making it difficult to analyze the labor market in advance. In order to assess the evolution of the unemployment in high frequency, we have developed a dynamic model combining both the Business Cycle and Google searches for jobs.
Consumer prices increased by 2.0% mom in October, in line with median market expectation but slightly higher than ours (2.0%, Bloomberg vs 1.8%, BBVA). Annual inflation decreased further to 8.55% from 9.3% in September on the back of strong favorable base effect . We expect year end annual inflation to materialize as 11.8%.
The Central Bank reduced the policy rate by 250 bps to 14% from 16.50%, much higher than market expectation (100bps). We think that the CBRT should start to increase caution in the magnitude of the policy rate cuts as global uncertainty remains well alive and the CBRT should be ready to react at any moment if needed.