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    Searcher
    Serkan Kocabas
    Serkan Kocabas
    Economist

    Serkan Kocabas started his position as an Economist in BBVA in November 2017. His main responsibility is the macroeconomic analysis of Turkey; including macroeconomic modeling and forecasting. Previous to the position, Serkan Kocabas worked in Ernst and Young as a Consultant, focusing on foreign trade trend analysis. He also worked as an intern at UNICEF.

    He obtained his master degree in Macroeconomic Analysis and Financial Markets from Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, a University Research Institute attached to the UPF and to the UAB and his bachelor degree in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU).

    Latest publications

    February 6, 2020

    Turkey Economic Outlook. First quarter 2020
    Recent policy impulses could support the acceleration in the economic activity further. We upgrade our GDP growth to 0.8% and 4% for 2019 & 2020 respectively with a higher support from Domestic Demand.

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    November 5, 2019

    Nowcasting Turkish unemployment using real time data from Google
    Turkish unemployment data is published with a significant delay (nearly three months), making it difficult to analyze the labor market in advance. In order to assess the evolution of the unemployment in high frequency, we have developed a dynamic model combining both the Business Cycle and Google searches for jobs.

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    November 4, 2019

    Turkey | Inflation materialized as expected
    Consumer prices increased by 2.0% mom in October, in line with median market expectation but slightly higher than ours (2.0%, Bloomberg vs 1.8%, BBVA). Annual inflation decreased further to 8.55% from 9.3% in September on the back of strong favorable base effect . We expect year end annual inflation to materialize as 11.8%.

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