Serkan Kocabas
Serkan Kocabas

Serkan Kocabas started his position as an Economist in BBVA in November 2017. His main responsibility is the macroeconomic analysis of Turkey; including macroeconomic modeling and forecasting. Previous to the position, Serkan Kocabas worked in Ernst and Young as a Consultant, focusing on foreign trade trend analysis. He also worked as an intern at UNICEF.

He obtained his master degree in Macroeconomic Analysis and Financial Markets from Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, a University Research Institute attached to the UPF and to the UAB and his bachelor degree in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU).

Latest publications

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) reduced the policy rate by 425 bps from 24% to 19.75%. The movement was bolder than expected by market expectation and ours (Consensus 250 bps, BBVA 200 bps). Some risks remains on both economic and geopolitical sides which should be met with a gradual and cautious policy.
IP declined by 1.3% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in May, slightly better than market expectation (-2%). Hence, the annual contraction in IP (c.a.) decelerated further from -4.7% in 1Q19 to -2.6% in the first two months of 2Q19. In absence of new shocks, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.
Consumer prices increased by 0.03% in June, lower than consensus but slightly higher than ours (0.2% Bloomberg vs. -0.15% BBVA Research). Supported by the base effects, annual inflation declined to 15.7% from 18.7% in May.