Serkan Kocabas
Serkan Kocabas

Serkan Kocabas started his position as an Economist in BBVA in November 2017. His main responsibility is the macroeconomic analysis of Turkey; including macroeconomic modeling and forecasting. Previous to the position, Serkan Kocabas worked in Ernst and Young as a Consultant, focusing on foreign trade trend analysis. He also worked as an intern at UNICEF.

He obtained his master degree in Macroeconomic Analysis and Financial Markets from Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, a University Research Institute attached to the UPF and to the UAB and his bachelor degree in Economics from Middle East Technical University (METU).

Latest publications

As expected, the CBRT maintained its policy rate unchanged. Important uncertainties on politics and geopolitics remain to be solved, so today’s decision is a prudent one. We maintain our view that the CBRT will start the gradual easing cycle towards the end of the year, but the expected disinflation could bring it forward.
Turkish Economy contracted by 2.6% in annual terms in 1Q19. The economy is now technically out of the recession as the quarterly growth in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms turned into positive by 1.3% after the decline of three previous consecutive quarters. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.
IP contracted by 2.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in March (-4.4% Consensus & -4.6% BBVA Research). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly contraction of 1.7% in March (96% info) and 1.6% in April (47% info). A prudent policy mix remains key to maintain the recovery trend alive and avoid a “W” pattern.