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Shushanik Papanyan

Latest Publications

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U.S. | The case of missing wage growth

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The General Purpose Technology advancements, Information Communication Technology and digitization, are the common factors behind three major trickle-down structural contributors to stagnant real wage growth – low productivity growth, the decline in labor income share, and the rise in wage growth distribution inequality.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. March 2018

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At the March meeting, the FOMC voted unanimously to raise the Fed funds rate to 1.5%-1.75%. Resumed downward pressure on term premium. The yield curve slope between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes flattened to 48 basis points, the lowest since August 2007.

Available in English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. February 2018

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The FOMC March meeting will be Powell’s first as Chair. The January minutes confirm that the Committee views the tax cuts with optimism and developments abroad as an additional tailwind, expecting the economy to run above potential for the medium-run. Markets have interpreted Chairman Powell’s stance at the two-day Congressional testimony as hawkish.

Available in English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. January 2018

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The ​FOMC left Fed funds rate unchanged. An increase in yields is supported by a soft but sustained increase in Inflation expectations. Term premium remains negative coupled with a low market volatility environment. The baseline remains for a gradual increase in long-term yields with an upward bias for 2018 year-end long-term rates.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: financial stability

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Weekly economic update focusing on the state of prolonged low interest rates and financial stability

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U.S.| Interest Rates Chartbook. December 2017

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The ​FOMC increased the Fed funds rate to 1.25%-1.50%. Fed funds futures steepen on an optimistic economic growth outlook for 2018. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved sideways in 2017. The baseline is for a gradual increase in long-term yields with the yield curve slope flattening by an additional 15 basis points.

Available in English

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Technology lets consumers take the initiative

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The changes in spending patterns that have come about in the past twenty years confirm that digital information and communication technology has now become an integral part of consumer behaviour. Irrespective of age, income, sex or any other demographic or socioeconomic characteristic, today’s consumers are highly connected.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | The state of prolonged low interest rates challenges financial stability

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Financial stability is defined by its ability to facilitate economic growth. Yet in the “new normal” economic environment of prolonged moderate growth, low nominal and real interest rates, an aging population, and rising longevity, the economic environment poses risks to financial stability.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: Technology empowered consumers and employment

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of December 4, 2017. Special topic: technology, the consumer of the future, and the shaping of industries

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. November 2017

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A December Federal funds rate increase to the 1.25%-1.50% range is warranted given upbeat third quarter economic performance with the GDP annualized growth rate revised upward to 3.3% and unemployment at a 17 year low

Available in English

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U.S. | Technology Puts the Consumer in the Driver’s Seat for Shaping Industries

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Digital technology will continue to empower consumers, granting them deeper product and pricing transparency, control over different layers of the value chain, and refinement of experiences. Survivalist mode will compel consumers to search for new ways to be frugal, facilitating the next-generation of the sharing economy.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: tax reform and growth, and select upcoming economic indicators

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of November 13, 2017. Special topic: will tax reform deliver faster economic growth?

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. October 2017

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The November FOMC meeting is not expected to deliver any policy course alteration. Financial markets will remain watchful of the statement’s tweaks on inflation wording.

Available in English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. September 2017

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The FOMC announced the start of the balance sheet normalization process to begin in October while maintained the Fed funds rate target range at 1%-1.25%

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: Libor, inflation and retail sales

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of September 11, 2017. Special topic: transitioning away from Libor