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Shushanik Papanyan

Latest Publications

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. June 2017

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The FOMC raised the Fed funds rate 25bp to 1.25% after the June meeting. In addition, it signaled a firm intention to raise rates one more time in 2017 and provided clear guidance on balance sheet normalization as it prepares to roll off the process in coming months

Available in English

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U.S. | When Robots Do It All and Leisure is Mandatory: Not for another 100 years

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Advancements in machine learning, mobile robotics, and computing power have led to machines that are increasingly capable of performing non-routine tasks and navigating in real time. Artificial intelligence is gaining traction as an attractive investment within the tech industry

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. May 2017

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FOMC minutes and Fedspeak have signaled FOMC readiness to raise the Fed funds rate by another 25bp at its next meeting in June. The Committee’s commitment to the gradual reduction of its balance sheet “later this year” remains unchanged and will likely receive be green lighted once the funds rate extends midway towards the median of the FOMC projected long-run rate of 3.0%

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: infrastructure spending, a need rather than a stimulus

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Discussion on infrastructure spending: the economic impact, current state of infrastructure, and funding options

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: GDP and employment

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of May 1, 2017. Special topic: 1Q GDP

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. April 2017

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Per the March meeting minutes, FOMC members have discussed a phased-out approach to ceasing the balance sheet reinvestment policy – to reduce “the risks of triggering financial market volatility” and avoiding a rebirth of the taper," to remain committed to acting “passive and predictable,” and to communicate “to the public well in advance of an actual change”

Available in English

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U.S. | Embracing "flat" – a new norm in long-term yields

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A flattened term premium curve is unprecedented when compared to previous Fed tightening cycles. Term premium dynamics are driven by the amplified role of duration risk as a shock absorber. Economic growth expectations remain the main driving force behind the long-term yields trajectory

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. March 2017

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The FOMC has raised the Fed funds rate for the third time since the start of the policy rate normalization cycle in 2015. The Committee has also reinforced its commitment to the gradual Fed funds rate increase in line with their projections of an additional two rate increases planned for 2017

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: trade deficit, interest rates and inflation

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of March 13, 2017. Special topic: the U.S. trade deficit

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U.S. | The trade deficit: Don’t fear the beast

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Public perception towards the trade deficit has shifted from being fact-based to sentiment-based. Economic pattern of the deficit strongly correlates with the structural shift in the U.S. economy. U.S. has a higher per capita deficit with Ireland and Germany than it does with China or Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. February 2017

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The FOMC minutes have reinforced the commitment to gradual rate normalization, however the pace of tightening could change if the risk of overheating the economy is perceived. The Primary Dealer’s expectations remained unchanged. Fed funds futures continue to price in two rate hikes in 2017 but imply 50-50 odds for the FOMC’s action in March

Available in English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. January 2017

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The FOMC meeting that will be concluding on February 1st is unlikely to deliver a lift in the policy rate. Chair Yellen’s remarks have re-emphasized that it is “prudent to adjust the stance of monetary policy gradually over time”

Available in English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. December 2016

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The FOMC December statement has revealed a unanimous vote for a 2nd Fed funds rate increase, while economic projections reinforced the Fed’s stance to stay true to its data-dependent course and to adjust the Fed funds rate trajectory accordingly if inflation expectations rise faster than anticipated

Available in English

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U.S. | Income disparity, technology and globalization

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What are the forces behind the rise in wage inequality throughout the last three decades? Which policies can reverse/correct this path?

Available in English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. November 2016

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FOMC November minutes and Fedspeak have reinforced the majority of members’ stance that economy is approaching full employment and the 2% inflation target. Backed by Fed communication that the case for rate hike “continued to strengthen,” the Fed funds futures are pricing a December rate hike implied probability at 100% with two additional rate increases by the end of 2017

Available in English