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Shushanik Papanyan
Shushanik Papanyan
Senior Economist
USA

Latest publications

The data remain consistent with the BBVA baseline expectation of three additional Fed funds rate increases in 2018 and two in 2019. The yield curve slope between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes flattened, fluctuating between 41 and 54 basis points. The baseline remains for a gradual increase in long-term yields.
Long-term yields have moved up as the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to cross the 3.0% threshold – a level not seen since January 2014. The climb in long-term yields is backed by an increase in inflation expectations.
The General Purpose Technology advancements, Information Communication Technology and digitization, are the common factors behind three major trickle-down structural contributors to stagnant real wage growth – low productivity growth, the decline in labor income share, and the rise in wage growth distribution inequality.