Tuğçe Tatoğlu
Tuğçe Tatoğlu
Senior Economist

Tuğçe Tatoğlu is a Senior Economist at Garanti – BBVA Research. She joined Garanti – BBVA in 2022. She got her BA degree in Economics from Ankara University, and received her MSc degree from TOBB ETÜ. She is currently PhD Candidate in Economics at TOBB ETÜ.

Before joining Garanti – BBVA, she worked as a Research Assistant in the field of macroeconomic analysis and politics at Süleyman Demirel University. Previously, she worked as a Teaching Assistant at TOBB ETÜ and as a Researcher in the Social Policy Research Center where she was responsible for analysis on labor markets mainly.

Latest publications

Turkish economy grew 3.9% y/y in 3Q22 (vs. 4% expected and 4.4% market consensus). We nowcast an annual GDP growth rate of 2.8% as of November, which puts a slight downside risk on our 2022 GDP growth forecast of 5.5%. We forecast 2023 GDP growth to be 3% with the expected boost in the first half of the year.
Industrial production (IP) once again surprised to the downside and grew 0.4% y/y in September (vs. 3% expected), implying a very sharp deceleration with 2.5% y/y in 3Q (vs. 10.7% in 2Q). We forecast 5.5% GDP growth in 2022 and 3% in 2023 with the help of potential boost before the elections.
Consumer price inflation accelerated further by 3.54% in October, parallel to market expectations but below our expectation (4.5%), which led to an annual inflation of 85.5%. We expect consumer inflation to remain in the range of 65% to 70% at the end of 2022 due to the weaker realizations in the last few months.