Tuğçe Tatoğlu
Tuğçe Tatoğlu
Senior Economist

Tuğçe Tatoğlu is a Senior Economist at Garanti – BBVA Research. She joined Garanti – BBVA in 2022. She got her BA degree in Economics from Ankara University, and received her MSc degree from TOBB ETÜ. She is currently PhD Candidate in Economics at TOBB ETÜ.

Before joining Garanti – BBVA, she worked as a Research Assistant in the field of macroeconomic analysis and politics at Süleyman Demirel University. Previously, she worked as a Teaching Assistant at TOBB ETÜ and as a Researcher in the Social Policy Research Center where she was responsible for analysis on labor markets mainly.

Latest publications

Industrial production (IP) production grew 7.0% y/y in January (vs. 4.6% expected and 3.9% market consensus). Our big data indicators started to signal a quick recovery to their pre-quake levels. Hence, we maintain our 2023 GDP forecast of 3%, assuming a manageable normalization from the current policies.
Consumer prices rose by 3.15% in January, lower than both our expectations (4.2%) and market consensus (3.5%) and annual inflation continued to come down to 55.2% (57.7% in Jan.). Following our revisions after the quakes, we revised our year-end inflation forecasts to 45% and 24% for 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Turkish economy grew by 3.5% y/y in 4Q22 (vs. 3% exp. and 2.9% consensus), leading to an overall GDP growth of 5.6% in 2022. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 3% in 2023 assuming expansionary fiscal policy and better global growth outlook will compensate the negative impact of the quakes.