Tuğçe Tatoğlu
Tuğçe Tatoğlu
Senior Economist

Tuğçe Tatoğlu is a Senior Economist at Garanti – BBVA Research. She joined Garanti – BBVA in 2022. She got her BA degree in Economics from Ankara University, and received her MSc degree from TOBB ETÜ. She is currently PhD Candidate in Economics at TOBB ETÜ.

Before joining Garanti – BBVA, she worked as a Research Assistant in the field of macroeconomic analysis and politics at Süleyman Demirel University. Previously, she worked as a Teaching Assistant at TOBB ETÜ and as a Researcher in the Social Policy Research Center where she was responsible for analysis on labor markets mainly.

Latest publications

Consumer prices rose by 9.09% m/m in August, higher than both our expectation (7.0%) and market consensus (7.2%), resulting in an annual inflation of 58.9% up from 47.8% in July. Considering higher-than-expected August realization, consumer inflation will likely get closer to 70% at the end of this year.
Turkish economy grew by 3.8% in 2Q23 in annual terms slightly above the market consensus of 3.5% (vs. our expectation of 4.5%), which corresponds to 5% GDP growth if the calendar day adjustment is made. We expect GDP growth to materialize in the range of 4% to 4.5% with a high probability.
Industrial production (IP) increased by 1.6% m/m in seasonal and calendar adjusted series, resulting in the 2.3% q/q acceleration of activity in 2Q (vs. 0.5% q/q in 1Q). We expect GDP growth to be 4.5% in 2023 thanks to the strong growth pattern in 1H23, especially considering the soft landing scenario.