Yesim Ugurlu Solaz
Yesim Ugurlu Solaz joined Garanti BBVA in September 2020 to conduct and contribute to macroeconomic research.She holds a BA degree in Economics from Bilkent University. During her bachelor’s degree, she also worked as a Teaching Assistant. She completed internships at the Ministry of Treasury and Finance and Ministry of Development.
Industrial Production grew by 16.6% yoy in cal. adj. terms in March, implying 19.9% yoy growth in unadjusted series (11.2% 1Q21 vs. 10.2% in 4Q20). The strong momentum so far, favorable base effects and upward revisions in the global growth outlook reinforces upsides risks on our current 2021 GDP growth forecast of 5%.
Consumer prices increased 1.68% in April resulting in an annual inflation of 17.1% (up from 16.2% the month before). We maintain our year-end inflation forecast at 15% and expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle only very gradually in September.
Industrial Production (IP) grew by 8.8% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in February, signaling still robust economic activity in 1Q21. Given some uncertainties, we maintain our 5% GDP growth forecast for 2021 by still acknowledging upside risks on our forecast.