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Castile and Leon Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Castille and Leon grew 3.3% in 2016, and will still grow 2.8% both in 2017 and 2018. This will add around 40,000 new jobs in that period and unemployment shall drop to 11%. Although pre-crisis GDP per cápita level has already been recovered, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

Available in Spanish

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Mexico Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

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The outlook is more positive, but still with risks. Inflation continues to rise, but it is a transitory phenomenon. The end of the rate hike cycle is closer

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

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The economy continued to grow in 1Q17 in line with our forecast of 2.8% Y/Y. Inflation is moving away from the BCRA target and will reach 19.5% (INDEC) Y/Y in December, driven by tariffs and core inflation that does not yield. The restrictive monetary and accommodative fiscal policy mix strengthens the peso, but we expect a greater pace of depreciation in 2H17

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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We are continuing to forecast growth of 1.6% this year, although risks are tilted to the downside. Inflation will continue to fluctuate below 3% yoy for most of the year. Our baseline scenario envisages a depreciation of the peso. The monetary policy rate will be around 2.5% at the end of the first semester and we estimate a growth in public spending by 4%.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Canary Islands Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of the Canary Islands grew 3.5% in 2016, and will still grow to 3.5% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, creating around 60,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution may slow down. Although pre-crisis GDP level will be reached in 2018, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

Available in Spanish

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United States Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2017

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Following the election, survey expectations began to climb at a fast pace while consumption slowed and investment remained flat. This gap widened despite limited progress on tax reform, healthcare, infrastructure, immigration and trade policy

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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We have revised our growth projection for this year by a percentage point to 2.5%. This adjustment reflects the fact that the three local risks we indicated in our February report have finally materialised: the weather problems continued, the delay in the major infrastructure construction projects continued and finally, business confidence dropped even further.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

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Perspectives for world growth have increased slightly in the last quarter. In Colombia, 2017 began slowly, with growth affected by the low level of consumer confidence and sluggish public and private investment. Inflation continues to decline and BanRep will slash its benchmark rate in the coming months.

Available in Spanish, English

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Economic Outlook Latin America. Second quarter 2017

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Growth in Latin America will recover to 1.1% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018. This will bring an end to four years of slowdown and a return to growth, following the contraction of 1.4% in 2016, although growth will still be slow. The recovery in Argentina is firming up, while Brazil seems to be coming out of its period of adjustment

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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China Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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Q1 GDP edged up to 6.9% YoY, we expect 2017 annual growth rate would not deviate much from the newly set official target of around 6.5%. Prudent monetary policy and tight regulations start to effect .RMB exchange rate and foreign reserves has stabilised. Downside risks: housing bubbles ; currency depreciation; indebtedness of the corporate sector and shadow banking.

Available in English

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Spain Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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The Spanish economy will grow 3% in 2017, three tenths more than what was estimated two months ago, given the confirmation of an upward bias in the scenario. The depletion of some tailwinds calls to maintain the slowdown expectations for 2018 (2.7%). Although reforms have had a positive impact, there are still major imbalances.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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Turkish economic activity maintained the momentum of the “V”-shaped GDP growth recovery in 1Q17 thanks to the impact lag of fiscal stimulus and solid export demand from EU. Consumer prices jumped on the back of mounting cost push pressures. As inflation accelerated and the Turkish lira suffered due to electoral uncertainty, Central Bank strengthened its monetary tightening

Available in English

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Digital Economy Outlook - April 2017

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In this issue we will focus on: digital platforms: economic features and policy challenges; fostering a data-driven economy in the EU; licensing Fintech companies: authorities trying a balance between fostering innovation and financial stability; behavioural biometrics, a step further in digital identification; the governance of technology in the digital world

Available in Spanish, English

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Andalusia Economic Outlook. First semester 2017

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The economy of Andalusia grew by 2.8% in 2016 and will accelerate to 3.1% in 2017 to stay at 2.7% in 2018. 200,000 jobs will be created by the end of 2018, despite the unemployment rate will be 23.5%. Although pre-crisis GDP will be reached, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

Available in Spanish

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Financial Regulation Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

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CRD V: State of play. MREL: Unresolved issues. NPL - ECB guidelines. Uncertainties surrounding Brexit. Innovation and regulation. Creating sustainable opportunities.

Geographies:Global

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Extremadura Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Extremadura grew 2.0% in 2016, and will still grow 2.3% in 2017 and 2.4% in 2018, creating some 13,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Although pre-crisis per capita income will be reached, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

Available in Spanish

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Spain Real Estate Outlook. March 2017

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The housing market recovery is consolidated. Madrid, the Mediterranean axis and the islands are leading the recovery. The growth in sales is driving prices and building. Positive expectations for 2017 with a more moderate tone.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Banking Outlook. March 2017

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In this issue we review: Trends and developments in the Spanish banking sector. Spanish banks’ ROE, COE and P/BV ratio. Evolution of the financial burden of families in Europe. Management of non-performing assets in Europe. Peru: deposits in soles and exchange rate expectations.

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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Balearic Islands Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of the Balearic Islands grew 3.2% in 2016, and will still grow 2.6% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, creating some 32,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Recovering pre-crisis per capita income, and creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

Available in Spanish

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Galicia Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Galicia grew 3.0% in 2016, and will still grow 2.8% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018, creating some 20,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Having almost recovered pre-crisis per capita income, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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