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Navarre Economic Outlook 2018

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The economy of Navarre grew 2.8% in 2017 and will keep that pace this year, moderating to 2.6% in 2019. The unemployment rate will reduce to 8.1% in 2019, although some risks are more likely to materialize than before. In 2019 employment in Navarre will be 2.3 p.p. under the 2008 level. Better and stronger job creation remains as a challenge.

Available in Basque, Spanish

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Banking Outlook. November 2018

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Net profit in the first half of 2018 was 6,654 million euros compared with losses of 6,170 million in the first semester of 2017, period in which the resolution of Popular had an impact. Defaulting within the system as well as the deleveraging of the private sector continues. The system’s efficiency and profitability improved in the first half of the year compared to 2017.

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico Real Estate Outlook. Second half 2018

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The GDP of construction closed 2017 with a fall of 1.1% in the annual rate. This is a result of the 10% decline in civil works and the slowdown in building that only improved 0.4%, both in annual terms. However, for the second quarter of 2018, the construction sector has an accumulated advance of 2%.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Madrid Economic Outlook. Second half 2018

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The economy of the Community of Madrid grew 3.4% in 2017 and will moderate its rate of growth up to 3.2% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. Unemployment will be reduced to 11.4% in 2019, but some risks are more likely now than a few months ago. Once the GDP per capita has returned to its pre-crisis level, the challenge is to reach 2008 level of employment and improve its quality.

Available in Spanish

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Spain Regional Watch. Fourth quarter 2018

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With the most recent data, GDP growth remains solid, but it would have slowed down in all autonomous communities. Tourism deepens the moderation of activity in the Mediterranean and island communities. In addition, the lower dynamism in the first half of exports and consumption weighs on growth also in the rest in 2018.

Available in Spanish

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Asturias Economic Outlook 2018

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The economy of Asturias grew 3.5% in 2017, but will moderate it to 2.5% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. The unemployment rate will reduce to 11.2% in 2019, although some risks are more likely to materialize now, than they were some months ago. While pre-crisis per capita GDP will be reached, absolute GDP will not; better and stronger job creation remains as a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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Output growth moderated in the past few months, but this should be transitory. As a result, economic activity would grow 3,6% in 2018. Next year, strong mining investment would drive output growth up to 3,9%. Hence, there are no changes in our forecasts, but we are now considering higher private sector spending and lower from the public sector.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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United States Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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Market volatility, rich equity valuations, inflationary pressures, a jolt of hawkish monetary policy and the length of the current expansion ratcheted up recessionary fears in 3Q18. Based on empirical evidence and our judgement on the potential for imbalances within the US economy, although the probability of recession within the next 12 months is edging up, it remains low

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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The extended currency crisis led to a renegotiation of the agreement with the IMF which increased funding for the aid package to Argentina. The new, more restrictive monetary program is expected to decelerate inflation and stabilize financial variables. In this more adverse scenario we estimate GDP will fall by 2.4% in 2018 and 0.3% in 2019.

Units:
Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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Turkey’s firm policy response to the recent financial shocks helped to restore confidence in financial assets. Inflation will remain the key concern in the short term on continuing pass-thru and high cost push factors. Both monetary and fiscal policies included in the New Economic Program (NEP) are now more adequate to restore confidence and re-balance the economy.

Available in English

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China Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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2018 Q3 GDP moderated to 6.5% y/y, down from the previous reading at 6.7% y/y and the market consensus. This suggests the economy further moderated amid the escalation of trade war and domestic deleveraging. The growth slowdown has prompted the authorities to reverse their previous neutral stance of policy to pro-growth so as to offset domestic and external headwinds.

Available in English

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Spain Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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The expected growth of the Spanish economy is revised downwards, to 2.6% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019, due to the negative surprises registered in the first semester. In addition, a downward bias is maintained over the forecasts presented in this scenario, given the increase in uncertainty, both external and internal.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Catalonia Economic Outlook. Second half 2018

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The GDP of Catalonia grew by 3.3% in 2017, and it is expected to advance at a rate of 2.5% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019. 130 thousand jobs will be created and the unemployment rate will be reduced to 10%. In the absence of uncertainty, investment in equipment and employment would have shown greater growth.

Available in Spanish, English, Catalan

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Financial Regulation Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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European NPLs: A complex problem. IMF report on the euro zone resolution framework. UK proposal for financial services post Brexit. What to expect from the forthcoming Spanish financial sandbox?. ESAs reform: Slow legislative process in the EU institutions. Three years of CMU: Progress and challenges ahead.

Available in Spanish, English

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Cantabria Economic Outlook 2018

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The economy of Cantabria grew 3.2% in 2017 and will moderate its growth rate to 2.8% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. It will create around 10,000 jobs until the end of 2019, although some risks are more likely now than a few months ago. The level of absolute and per capita GDP will recover, but the challenge is to create more and better employment.

Available in Spanish

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