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Financial Regulation Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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European NPLs: A complex problem. IMF report on the euro zone resolution framework. UK proposal for financial services post Brexit. What to expect from the forthcoming Spanish financial sandbox?. ESAs reform: Slow legislative process in the EU institutions. Three years of CMU: Progress and challenges ahead.

Available in Spanish, English

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Cantabria Economic Outlook 2018

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The economy of Cantabria grew 3.2% in 2017 and will moderate its growth rate to 2.8% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. It will create around 10,000 jobs until the end of 2019, although some risks are more likely now than a few months ago. The level of absolute and per capita GDP will recover, but the challenge is to create more and better employment.

Available in Spanish

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Valencian Community Economic Outlook. Second half 2018

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The economy of Valencian Community grew 3.2% in 2017 and will grow 2.7% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019. This will add around 110,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 12.6%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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Castilla-La Mancha Economic Outlook 2018

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The economy of Castile-La Mancha grew 2.5% in 2017, but will accelerate to a 2.8% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019, creating around 48,000 new jobs and lowering the unemployment rate to 14.8% during this two-year period. While the pre-crisis GDP per capita will be reached, better and stronger job creation remains the main challenge.

Available in Spanish

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Mexico Regional Sectoral Outlook. First half 2018

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The service sector contributed 92.3% to Mexico’s GDP growth. The manufacturing industry regained its dynamism in the second half of 2017 (2H17) and has been a constant subject for debate with the renegotiation of NAFTA.

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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In the first half of the year the economy grew by 2.1% relative to the first half of 2017. Inflation: abating in 2018, the spike in June-July will be only temporary. The easing of global trade tensions paves the way for gains for domestic assets given the temporary reduction in idiosyncratic risks.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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United States Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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In recent months, concerns surrounding the financial health of the business sector have been on the rise. In particular, market participants are worried that higher price pressures, faster monetary policy normalization, and a trade war, amid stretched valuations, could trigger a significant decline in risk appetite.

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Banking Outlook. August 2018

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The Spanish banking industry made profits of 3.106 billion euros in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the losses posted in 2017, which were prompted by the sale of Banco Popular. Cleaning of bank balance sheets is gathering pace, while deleveraging of the private sector is ongoing. The efficiency and profitability of the system have improved in the first quarter.

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Latin America will grow 1.3% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with considerable heterogeneity across countries. These forecasts are lower than the previous ones, mainly due to the revision of growth in Argentina and Brazil. This adjustment in the two countries could not be compensated by the upward revisions of growth in Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Paraguay.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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The economy is starting to settle into improved performance, with positive surprises. Political tension has reduced, business confidence has improved and private expenditure shows a good performance. As a result, we expect output to grow by 3.6% this year and 3.9% next, more than we forecast in our last report.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Turkish financial assets remain under stress. The level and the duration of adjustment in the economy will depend on the policy reactions in the short term. Inflation reached alarming levels on last year´s loose policies, high inertia and second round effects. Both fiscal policy and monetary policy should complement each other to fight against inflation.

Available in English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

Units:
Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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We expect and acceleration of GDP growth from 1.8% in 2017 to 2.6% in 2018 and 3.3% in 2019, driven mainly by private consumption. Low expected inflation, the adjustment in external accounts made by Colombia and the stability in the exchange rate will allow the Central Bank to maintain its reference rate in an accommodative stance for a prolonged time.

Units:

Available in Spanish, English

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Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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The GDP growth forecasts for the Spanish economy stay at 2.9% for 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. However, the composition of demand is less favourable than that observed three months ago. In addition, the probability of materializing some risks that may result in less dynamic scenarios has increased.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Q2 GDP moderated to 6.7% y/y amid the trade war and domestic deleveraging, down from the previous reading at 6.8% y/y and in line with the consensus. In particular, outturns of trade, industrial production and investment are below the market expectations and the previous readings. Headwinds are from domestic deleveraging initiatives and trade war with the US externally.

Available in English

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