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United States Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Most people would agree that the current expansion cycle has been anemic. Since 2010, average real GDP growth has been 2.1%, significantly lower than 3.2% between 1992 and 2007. Over time, the cumulative difference between the two paths could be quite dramatic

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

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The Colombian economy responded positively to the oil Price shock maintaining positive growth. Nonetheless the recovery will be slow given the limited sources of growth. Inflation should continue its descending path in 2018 reaching the target range and there will be space for the Central Bank to continue reducing its reference interest rate.

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Risks detected in our previous report have materialised, and we have therefore revised our projection for this year down to 1.3%, but we maintain an increase by 2.4% in 2018. Increasing slack in the economy and the strength of the peso lead us to estimate an end-of-period inflation by 2.6% YoY, with a downward bias, and 2.8% YoY for 2018.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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The Turkish economy’s “V” shaped recovery is well alive and the pace of the recovery gained momentum with 5% GDP growth in 1Q. Our monthly GDP indicator suggests a similar growth in 2Q supported by fiscal and macroprudential stimuli provided by CGF. Inflation will remain elevated until the end of the year.

Available in English

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Mexico Real Estate Outlook. First Half 2017

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The slowdown in construction has continued with growth of 1.8%, closing 2016 with an increase of 4.2% in building and a decline of 9.4% in civil engineering

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Growth in Latin America will increase to 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. The recovery after the -1.2% contraction in 2016 will be helped by the coming out of the recession by two of the main regional economies (Brazil and Argentina), as in most other countries there will be a growth slowdown in 2017 compared to 2016, hobbled by external shocks and weak domestic demand.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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We project low growth this year with a rebound in 2018, driven by reconstruction and infrastructure spending.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

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The Argentine economy entered its third consecutive quarter of recovery. Growth forecasts of 2.8% for 2017 and 3% for 2018. Gradually decreasing trend in core inflation will be maintained in the coming months. Inflation as measured by INDEC's GBA CPI will reach 19.5% y/y at the end of 2017, still above the BCRA’s target of 12-17% YoY

Available in Spanish, English

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China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Notwithstanding the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to cool down the property market and curb shadow banking, Chinese economy continued its good performance in Q2 with GDP outturn at 6.9% YoY, flat with the Q1 reading and higher than the market consensus. We raise our 2017 growth forecast to tally with the official target of 6.5% from 6.3%.

Available in English

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Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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The Spanish economy will grow 3.3% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, three and one tenth more than what was estimated three months ago, confirming the upward bias anticipated on the scenario. If these forecasts are met, the unemployment rate could be reduced to 15.3% by 2018, which would mean a recovery of two-thirds of the employment lost during the crisis.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

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Reflection on the future of the Economic and Monetary Union. Reviewing the G-SIBs framework. Improving the supervisory regime. Assessment of the regulatory framework. CMU mid-term revision. US Treasury report. Fostering financial innovation and Resolution: At the moment of truth.

Geographies:Global

Available in English

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Banking Outlook. June 2017

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In the first quarter of 2017 the banking system posted net income of €3,514 million, the highest quarterly figure since 2009. Operating items followed the trend of the past few quarters, with revenues down slightly and costs well under control.

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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Pais Vasco Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of the Basque Country grew 2.8% in 2016, will grow as much this year and 2.9% in 2018. This will add around 22,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 9.2%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita has been recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Basque, Spanish

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Murcia Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Murcia region grew 3.1% in 2016, and will accelerate to grow 3.4% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 41,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 16.9%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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Catalonia Economic Outlook. First half 2017

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The Catalan economy grew by 3.5% in 2016 and will remain dynamic in 2017 (+ 3.3%) and in 2018 (+ 2.8%). 230,000 jobs will be created by the end of 2018 and the unemployment rate will drop to 9.3%. Although GDP per capita GDP will recover in 2017, creating more and better jobs remains the main challenge.

Available in Catalan

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