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Banking Outlook. March 2017

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In this issue we review: Trends and developments in the Spanish banking sector. Spanish banks’ ROE, COE and P/BV ratio. Evolution of the financial burden of families in Europe. Management of non-performing assets in Europe. Peru: deposits in soles and exchange rate expectations.

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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Balearic Islands Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of the Balearic Islands grew 3.2% in 2016, and will still grow 2.6% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, creating some 32,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Recovering pre-crisis per capita income, and creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

Available in Spanish

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Galicia Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Galicia grew 3.0% in 2016, and will still grow 2.8% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018, creating some 20,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Having almost recovered pre-crisis per capita income, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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Mexico Economic Outlook First Quarter 2017

By , , , ,

Rise in inflation, interest rates and lower investment will shape internal demand. The economy will grow by 1.0% in 2017. The close commercial relations between Mexico and the US benefit both countries, so we believe that there will be no structural change in their relationship, thus allowing economic growth to recover in 2018

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Valencian Community Economic Outlook. First half 2017

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The economy of the Region of Valencia grew by 3.5% in 2016 and will continue to do so to 2.7% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018. 120,000 jobs will be created throughout the biennium in the region, and the precrisis level of GDP per capita will be recovered. The slowdown in domestic demand will only be partially offset by the recovery of the foreign sector.

Available in Spanish

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Aragon Economic Outlook. First semester 2017

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The economy of Aragón grew 3.3% in 2016, and will slow down to 2.9% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, creating some 20,000 new jobs in those two years. External factors slow down internal demand. Having almost recovered pre-crisis per capita income, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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United States Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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Administration’s agenda has the potential to boost U.S. economy, but high degree of uncertainty remains. For the time being, the Fed’s appetite for higher growth and inflation may be limited. However, normalization path to remain gradual. Mix of policies and timing could produce distinct group of winners and losers at the state level

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Outlook. First quarter 2017

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South America will recover in 2017 after a 4-year slowdown, but in Mexico, the shock of US policy uncertainty is being received in full. The different response to uncertainty about US policies marks the divergence in the dynamics of growth in the two areas of Latin America. South America will grow by about 1% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

The economy began to recover in 4Q16 and will grow 2.8% in 2017 driven by investment. The downward stickiness of core inflation and the increase in tariffs will keep inflation at 20.8% YoY in 2017, and the CB in a tight stance. 2017 financial needs at USD 40 billion to be covered by debt issues will result in capital inflows and tend to appreciate the real exchange rate

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey economic outlook. First quarter 2017

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Global conditions improve but some uncertainties remain. Turkish economic activity gradually recovers after the slump in the third quarter of 2016. The Central Bank tightened monetary policy to contain exchange rate and inflationary pressures. The New National Accounts reveal higher potential output for the Turkish Economy

Available in English

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Peru Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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We have revised our growth projection downwards, from 4.1% to 3.5%. The delay in infrastructure construction, one of the main risk factors considered in the report that we published last quarter, materialised in early 2017.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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The global economy is gradually accelerating on the back of United States growth. Colombia GDP growth will rise from 1.9% in 2016 to 2.4% and 3.3% in 2017 and 2018. Investment will be decisive for reaching theses figures. The progressive reduction of inflation will allow BanRep to slash rates during 2017 and 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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Spain Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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The Spanish economy continues to show signs of strong recovery, although less intense than in previous years. Weaker tailwinds explain the slowdown: fiscal policy will shift from expansionary to neutral and the inflation increase in the EMU can lead to an inflexion point in monetary policy. The adoption of new reforms is necessary due to the vulnerability of the economy

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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Growth projection for 2017 has been corrected to 1.6% in view of the weakness observed at the beginning of the year. The exchange rate is close to intervention level. Limited inflationary pressures are confirmed, which creates room for cuts in the monetary policy rate to 2.5%. The medium-term fiscal situation is becoming more complex and will require an adjustment.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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China Economic Outlook: First Quarter of 2017

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Economic activities continued to gain traction through Q4, enabling the authorities to meet their full-year target in 2016. The authorities recently fine-tuned their policy stance and put more emphasis on the stability of exchange rate. Downside risks: uncertainties from Trump’s policies ; currency depreciation; indebtedness of the corporate sector and shadow banking .

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Latin America Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2016

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Volatility returns in financial markets in the wake of the US election and the Fed’s rate hike. The outlook continues to point to a recovery of growth in 2017 in the majority of countries. The region will grow by 1.3% next year. The fall in inflation will lead to interest rate cuts by most South American central banks.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Digital Economy Outlook. January 2017

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In this issue we will focus on: Algorithms challenge the banking industry; Does blockchain fit into current legal frameworks?; Turning the spotlight on shadow banking: pros and cons of the darkness and; The Internet of Things and digital banking

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation Outlook. First quarter 2017

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Finalisation of Basel III. New package of banking reforms in the EU. TLAC and MREL. SSM supervisory priorities and SREP methodology. A flawed EDIS proposal. Turning the spotlight on shadow banking. Geopolitics and Regulation

Geographies:Global

Available in English

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Mexico Regional Sectorial Outlook. Second Half 2016

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The automotive industry in Mexico: domestic sales at their highest level, exports will depend on the international situation. NAFTA promotes greater trade integration and economic complexity. The telecommunications reform begins to show its positive effects

Available in Spanish, English

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Banking Outlook. December 2016

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Trends and developments in the Spanish banking sector. Variation in the net financial burden from 2008 to 2016. The Portuguese banking system: relief at the DBRS rating. Banking union: necessary, positive and offering great potential. New package of banking reforms.

Geographies:Spain Europe Portugal
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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