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Andalusia Economic Outlook. First half 2019

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The economy of Andalusia would have grown by 2.3% in 2018. The recovery will continue in 2019 and 2020, with a GDP growth of 2.3 and 1.9%. 140,000 jobs will be created by the end of 2020, although some risks are more likely now than a few months ago. The unemployment rate and unemployment will continue far from pre-crisis. Inclusive growth is a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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Aragon Economic Outlook 2019

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The economy of Aragon may have grown 2.6% in 2018, and will moderate to 2.4% in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020. It will create over 14,000 new jobs by 2020, although some risks are more likely to materialize now, than they were some months ago. Total employment will be still far from its pre-crisis level. Inclusive growth is a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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Spain Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

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The recovery of the Spanish economy will carry on in the coming years, although the slowdown in growth continues. GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2019 and by 2% in 2020. In this context, job creation is expected to continue, in an environment of soft adjustment of world growth and growing internal and external uncertainty.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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United States Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

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Although the U.S. maintains significant advantages such as the strongest military, the world’s reserve currency, the largest economy and the highest ranked universities, there are growing concerns that the country is losing the technological race.

Geographies:USA

Available in English

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Turkey Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

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Firm policies helped to stabilize Turkish Financial Markets and the economy is re-balancing fast. The economic activity adjustment gained momentum at the end of 2018 but there are early signs of bottoming-out. We expect policymakers stick to sound policies.

Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Global Economic Risk Outlook. First quarter 2019

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The balance of risks has deteriorated on the back of growth concerns in the US and China. A global trade war continues to be relevant despite the current truce, while a resurface of debt tensions in the Eurozone should not be ruled out yet due to high political instability. On a positive note, the U-turn in the Fed’s stance reduces the likelihood of overshooting.

Geographies:Global

Available in English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

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The currency crisis of 2018 derailed both the gradual fiscal approach and the inflation targets, and drastically changed the 2019 outlook. The key questions are whether there be a turnaround in activity and inflation, and who the next President will be.

Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

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We estimate that GDP advanced around 4.6% yoy in Q4 2018. As a result, GDP growth in 2018 would have been around 3.9%. This year, due to a strong increase in mining investment, but also more restrained public spending and less favourable external conditions, we forecast that GDP will advance 3.9% in 2019, a similar figure to that of our previous report.

Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico Regional Sectoral Outlook. Second half 2018

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In the first half of 2018, the Mexican economy grew at a lower rate than expected, with the service sector contributing 86.9% of GDP growth, less than the 92.1% observed in 2017. Manufacturing industries recovered in 2017, contributing 11.8% of growth, although uncertainty in the first half of the year affected their growth potential.

Available in Spanish, English

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China Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

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The low Q4 GDP figure sends the 2018 whole year GDP growth slowing down to 6.6%, the lowest growth rate for the past 28 years since 1990. This suggests that Chinese economy further moderated amid the unsettled trade war with the US and previous domestic deleveraging measures. It prompted the authorities to beef up their easing measures to offset headwinds to the economy.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation Outlook. First quarter 2019

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Regulatory authorities’ work programmes for 2019. Last steps in the negociation CRD V. CRD V negotiation: Resolution issues. Contingency measures for a no-deal Brexit. Habemus a Macroprudential Authority in Spain. Trends in digital regulation.

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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The Colombian economy has remained robust amid turmoil in markets. As a result, some assets, such as sovereign debt and risk premiums, have not been impacted by these fluctuations, and only the exchange rate registered a slight depreciation. High oil prices and the reduction of external imbalances in recent years helped the economy to be more resilient.

Available in Spanish, English

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Insurance Outlook. Second semester 2018

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Insurance sector is going to gain momentum in the next two years given the improvement in households' income and the decrease in unemployment. Climate change implies an economic cost for the insurance companies, financial sector and the economy as a whole.

Geographies:Spain
Topics:Insurance

Available in Spanish

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Navarre Economic Outlook 2018

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The economy of Navarre grew 2.8% in 2017 and will keep that pace this year, moderating to 2.6% in 2019. The unemployment rate will reduce to 8.1% in 2019, although some risks are more likely to materialize than before. In 2019 employment in Navarre will be 2.3 p.p. under the 2008 level. Better and stronger job creation remains as a challenge.

Available in Basque, Spanish

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