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China consumption trends 2017

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China has rapidly transitioned from a predominantly lower-middle class society to a middle, upper-middle and Affluent class society over past decade. Recent years have seen rising disposable incomes for high-income Chinese households, boosting demand for high value products – A visible shift from mass to premium.

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U.S. | Auto industry chartbook (March 2017)

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Solid employment growth, stable gasoline prices and low interest rates contributed to robust vehicle sales through the end of 2016. Demand continues to be biased towards light-trucks and away from cars. Auto lending remains healthy, but this could be impacted by future interest rate hikes.

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Presentation U.S. Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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The Fed in recognizing the underlying strength of the economy is all but certain raise rates in March and embark on a more aggressive tightening schedule in 2017. Full employment on horizon, as the unemployment rate trends at 4.8%. If improvements in labor market continue at current pace the approximately 1 million left out of the labor force should be absorbed by 2018

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Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. February 2017

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Total credit growth rate of the Turkish banking sector continues to hover between 11%-12% and the recent trend signals that it is moving to the Central Bank's comfort target (15%). Retail interest rate decreases have stopped as the Central Bank has tightened the monetary policy. Consumer credits is losing momentum but still robust.

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Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor. February 2017

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Turkish Lira appreciated against the hard currencies, both thanks to local and global factors. Our monthly GDP model points at 1.9% YoY growth in 4Q16 and we forecast a gradual recovery in the beginning of 2017.

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. February 2017

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The FOMC minutes have reinforced the commitment to gradual rate normalization, however the pace of tightening could change if the risk of overheating the economy is perceived. The Primary Dealer’s expectations remained unchanged. Fed funds futures continue to price in two rate hikes in 2017 but imply 50-50 odds for the FOMC’s action in March

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A long term global view with a focus on MENA

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A long term global view with a focus on MENA. The mediterranean Economies in a changing world. The world is changing its economic center of gravity from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Growth will be concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region, (80% in the next ten years)

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Presentation "Latin America Economic Outlook. First quarter 2017"

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South America will grow 1% in 2017 and leave 4 years of deceleration behind. Mexico is on the receiving end of uncertainty about US economic policies. Growth falls to 1% in 2017.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Spain Economic Outlook. First quarter 2017

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The Spanish economy continues to show signs of strong recovery, although less intense than in previous years. Weaker tailwinds explain the slowdown: fiscal policy will shift from expansionary to neutral and the inflation increase in the EMU can lead to an inflexion point in monetary policy. The adoption of new reforms is necessary due to the vulnerability of the economy.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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The global economy is gradually accelerating on the back of United States growth. Colombia GDP growth will rise from 1.9% in 2016 to 2.4% and 3.3% in 2017 and 2018. Investment will be decisive for reaching theses figures. The progressive reduction of inflation will allow BanRep to slash rates during 2017 and 2018.

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U.S. | Oil Price Outlook (February 2017)

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OPEC output deal may have a limited impact on prices. Going forward, inventory correction and the lagged effect of CAPEX cuts should lead to higher prices. The recovery of U.S. shale production is expected to prevent a steep upturn in prices. Little to no upside from demand. Slow recovery and convergence to $60/bbl.

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Presentation "Brazil Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017"

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After having fallen by more than 7% over the past two years, we expect GDP to grow by 0.9% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018. The approval of a fiscal reform, lower inflation, declining interest rates, among other reasons, should pave the way for a gradual recovery. However, political tensions and failing to approve the needed social security reform could derail growth.

Geographies:Brazil

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. January 2017

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Emerging Market (EMs) bank lending conditions worsened in 2016Q4. Funding conditions in EM deteriorated in 2016Q4 as a consequence of a tighter liquidity environment. International funding conditions deteriorated mostly in Turkey. The average funding rate of the CBRT increased sharply during the month (more than 200 bp).

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Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor. January 2017

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The Central Bank increased the average funding rate over 10% in the face of exchange rate and inflation pressures. Our GDP indicator signals a gradual recovery, rendering our 2.3% 2016 growth forecast feasible.

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. January 2017

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The FOMC meeting that will be concluding on February 1st is unlikely to deliver a lift in the policy rate. Chair Yellen’s remarks have re-emphasized that it is “prudent to adjust the stance of monetary policy gradually over time”

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Chile | Fundamentals of the Chilean Economy

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The aim of this presentation goes beyond the short-run economic outlook with relevant data on different dimensions of the Chilean economy. It seeks to provide information to frequent questions from both foreign and domestic investors.

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Geographies:Chile

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Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. December 2016

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Financial stress for DM remains contained with positive sentiment of equity investors. International debt securities issuance during 3Q 2016, at $1.4 trillion, was 10% lower than in the previous quarter. In EMEs, net borrowing on international securities markets in Q3, at $83 billion, was 35% below that of the previous quarter

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Uruguay Economic Outlook. Second Half 2016

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Uruguay will grow by just 0.5% in 2016, but expectations for 2017 are improving thanks to a positive contribution from external demand. Inflation is starting to ease thanks to reduced pressures from the exchange rate and from demand, but will once again exceed the target range.

Units:
Geographies:Uruguay

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. December 2016

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The FOMC December statement has revealed a unanimous vote for a 2nd Fed funds rate increase, while economic projections reinforced the Fed’s stance to stay true to its data-dependent course and to adjust the Fed funds rate trajectory accordingly if inflation expectations rise faster than anticipated

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Monthly Economic Monitor Turkey. December 2016

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Financial tensions escalated in Asia mainly due to the concerns on China on top of depleting reserves by mid-December. Volatility in global bond markets remains highIP showed a slight recovery in October thanks to the domestic oriented sectors. We expect a further improvement in November. Although slowed down, the fall in tourist arrivals remains sharp.

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