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Uruguay Economic Outlook. First half 2018

By , , , , ,

Uruguay: growth slows, but investment expected to pick up. Downward revision of growth in Uruguay due to the effect of the drought on the agricultural and livestock sector and hydroelectric generation. Private consumption slows due to slacker pace of increase in real wages.

Units:

Available in Spanish, English

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Measuring Retail Trade using Card Transactional Data

By , , , , , , , ,

We construct a high-dimensionality Retail Trade Index (RTI) constructed to nowcast the retail trade sector economic performance in Spain using data from BBVA clientS from their credit or debit card transactions at Spanish point of sale terminals. Results indexes are robust when compared with the Spanish RTI, regional RTI, and RTI published by the INE.

Available in English

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China | Detecting China’s Financial Vulnerabilities

By , , ,

On the backdrop of a solid growth in Q1, the China Vulnerability Sentiment Index broadly remained stable driven by SOE and Shadow banking Vunerability index, despite the new emerging risk of Sino-US trade tensions. However, Housing Bubble and Exchange Rate Vulnerability index deteriorated as property prices remained resilient as well as RMB's recent appreciation.

Available in English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. April 2018

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The data remain consistent with the BBVA baseline expectation of three additional Fed funds rate increases in 2018 and two in 2019. The yield curve slope between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes flattened, fluctuating between 41 and 54 basis points. The baseline remains for a gradual increase in long-term yields.

Geographies:USA

Available in English

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Global Funds Outlook. First quarter 2018

By , , ,

Global Investment Funds still attracted sizable flows in 1Q18 while. Recently, some moderation has already occurred with the bulk of flows retrenchment concentrated in developed markets. The financial outlook is certainly challenging for Emerging Markets as volatility and interest rates “normalize” in a context of high debt levels.

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

We forsee growth of 3.2% in 2018 and 3.5% for next year. The forecasts take into account a favourable international environment for Peru. On the domestic front we are assuming a calmer political scenario, a fiscal stimulus in 2018 and a commencement of the deficit reduction by the government next year.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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Latin America maintains its recovery amidst external turbulence. Growth will increase from 1.2% in 2017, to 1.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. The main external risks center on protectionism and on China. On the domestic front, political noise and the possible delay in public and private investment is an upside risk in a number of countries.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Spain Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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The Spanish economy will grow 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019, above those forecasted three months ago. The favorable external environment and the lower long-term financing cost offset the impact of economic policy uncertainty. This scenario is consistent with the creation of one million jobs and the reduction of the unemployment rate below 14%.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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GDP growth will accelerate, reaching a rate of 2.0% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019, driven by private spending. Inflation will converge to the 3.0% target and will allow the Central Bank to reduce its rate to 4.0% in the second quarter of this year. The exchange rate will depreciate in the second half of 2018.

Units:

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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GDP grew 1.0% in 2017 and should accelerate gradually going forward. We maintain our GDP growth forecasts of 2.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. Political and fiscal developments will shape the future economic performance; the sustainability of the economic recovery requires the adoption of structural measures to bring the fiscal deterioration to an end.

Available in Spanish, English

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Monitoring social and geopolitical events with Big Data

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In this presentation, we show how to monitor social and geopolitical events with Big Data with a special focus on the refugee crisis.

Available in English

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Central Bank Digital Currencies in LatAm

By , , , , ,

We identified the most relevant factors for the implementation of a CBDC in LatAm, under different designs. We concluded that the region could benefit more from the adoption of a CBDC than developed countries. However, the existence of costs associated with implementation casts uncertainty on where it will be adopted first.

Available in English

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How do the EM central banks talk? A Big Data approach to the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT)

By , ,

In this presentation, we analyze the Central Bank of Turkey's communication strategy. Particularly, what the CBRT is talking about through topic Analysis and “How” the CBRT is talking through sentiment Analysis. We also analyze the interconnectedness between topics using network analysis.

Available in English

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U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook 1Q18

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Economic fundamentals and financial conditions remain supportive of demand. However, increasing off-lease returns will continue to exert downward pressures on sales and prices of new vehicles.

Available in English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. March 2018

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At the March meeting, the FOMC voted unanimously to raise the Fed funds rate to 1.5%-1.75%. Resumed downward pressure on term premium. The yield curve slope between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes flattened to 48 basis points, the lowest since August 2007.

Geographies:USA

Available in English

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