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U.S. Economic Outlook. August 2018

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Incoming data consistent with baseline of high growth and inflation in 2018 & 2019. There was no change to FOMC view on the level of accommodation, suggesting that they remain comfortable with further rates increases and additional balance sheet normalization.

Geographies:USA

Available in English

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Presentation Mexico Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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The economy grew 2.1% in the first half of the year. Downward bias in our growth forecast for 2018; no change for 2019.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Monitoring NAFTA with Big Data

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By means of the media data (GDELT), we can monitor both the coverage and tone of NAFTA considering the main sources of information by country (US, Canada and Mexico). Media coverage increased at key moments during the NAFTA renegotiation process since President Trump’s victory.

Available in English

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U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook 2Q18

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Sales remain resilient backed by robust economic growth. Automakers continue to benefit from consumers favoring light-trucks over cars. Higher interest rates and gasoline prices may impact demand through the remaining of the year.

Available in English

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Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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We expect and acceleration of GDP growth from 1.8% in 2017 to 2.6% in 2018 and 3.3% in 2019, driven mainly by private consumption. Low expected inflation, the adjustment in external accounts made by Colombia and the stability in the exchange rate will allow the Central Bank to maintain its reference rate in an accommodative stance for a prolonged time.

Units:

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

Units:
Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Latin America will grow 1.3% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with considerable heterogeneity across countries. These forecasts are lower than the previous ones, mainly due to the revision of growth in Argentina and Brazil. This adjustment in the two countries could not be compensated by the upward revisions of growth in Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Paraguay.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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The GDP growth forecasts for the Spanish economy stay at 2.9% for 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. However, the composition of demand is less favourable than that observed three months ago. In addition, the probability of materializing some risks that may result in less dynamic scenarios has increased.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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The economy is starting to settle into improved performance, with positive surprises. Political tension has reduced, business confidence has improved, and private expenditure shows a good performance. As a result, we expect output to grow by 3.6% this year and 3.9% next, more than we forecast in our last report.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Global Funds Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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In the 2Q18 global investment funds registered outflows for the first time since 2016. The reversal –driven by tighter global financing and growing concerns on trade- has remained mild and controlled thanks to solid economic growth. It was especially strong in EM. Investor sentiment has veered from risk-on to risk-off mood and we project outflows from EM to continue.

Available in Spanish, English

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Brazil Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Growth prospects deteriorate due to the financial volatility, the negative effects of exchange rate depreciation, doubts about whether the next government will face fiscal problems and the consequences of the recent truckers’ strike, among other factors. Thus the recovery process will be more gradual than expected

Available in Spanish, English

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United States Economic Outlook. July 2018

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High growth and inflation will continue in 2018 & 2019. We now anticipate that the Fed will raise rates three times in 2019; for 2018, we maintain our baseline scenario of hikes in Sept. & Dec. Despite elevated volatility in the employment surveys we maintain our outlook for ongoing tightening in the labor market; unemployment rate to reach 3.7%.

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Deepening EMU to create opportunities and increase competitiveness and growth in the EU

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Despite the progress in improving the governance in the last years, the present architecture of EMU is not enough to deal properly with future crisis and face the challenges of the on-going digital revolution. A genuine monetary, fiscal, banking and economic union, with a non-constrained interaction between monetary and fiscal policies.

Available in English

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United States Economic Outlook. June 2018

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Incoming data reaffirms our baseline scenario of moderate to high GDP growth and higher inflation in 2018 & 2019. Federal Reserve poised to raise rates twice in the second half of the year and possibly three times in 2019. We continue to expect above average growth in employment which will push the unemployment rate to 3.6% by 2019.

Geographies:USA

Available in English

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World Trade at a Crossroads

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USA, EU and China are the main nodes of the world trade network. 1980-2008 was the most recent period of high dynamism of trade boosted by EM growth, technological and logistic advances and, last but not least, enhanced multilateralism approach. The globalization challenge is to reach a more even distribution of its benefits and protectionism is the wrong policy.

Available in English

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