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The first Trump era G20

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The G20 meeting which was held in Baden-Baden (Germany) on 17 and 18 March was not attended in person by Trump, although his influence was very present. Certain traditional G20 messages have executed an about-turn which reflects the new US position.

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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Pensions and inflation: there are no free solutions

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In recent weeks, we have learned of certain initiatives to repeal the reform of the 2013 pensions system, its revaluation mechanism and the sustainability factor (which kicks in from 2019), as well as others to raise pensions by 1.2% in 2017, with a revision clause if inflation outstrips this figure.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America and the US shock

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There is still much uncertainty about the new economic policies that will eventually be implemented in the US, with three dimensions particularly relevant for Latin America: changes in policies on trade, immigration and remittances.

Available in Spanish, English

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Trade is global, not a country-by-country balancing act

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The abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and statements by both the president and the new US trade authorities seem to indicate that the US is turning towards bilateralism and is likely to consider the balance of trade as the variable on which to base its policies.

Available in Spanish, English

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China, a balance between growth, risks and globalisation

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The National People's Congress is without doubt one of the most important events in China’s political calendar. This year is especially important given that the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China will take place in October, where we will oversee the most important leadership reshuffle since 2012, when Xi Jinping became president.

Available in Spanish, English

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Consequences of the increase in the Minimum Wage

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Every economic policy has intended and unintended consequences. The significant increase in Spain’s legal minimum wage in 2017 will barely have any effect on employment or economic activity. Therefore in principle the measure’s success will lie in the attainment of the objectives presumably pursued: improving the income of workers whose wages are tied to the minimum wage.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Shadow banking: time to step out into the light

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The avalanche of banking regulation has had as a side effect an increase in the growth of shadow banking. This business has been favoured by laxer regulation and supervision. In fact there is no uniform international supervision or regulation, nor is there a transparent and exhaustive macroprudential framework.

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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The Greek epic

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We all know that tragedies are Greek, sagas Scandinavian and comic operas originally Italian, and that we use these expressions to describe political or economic reality when it overtakes us, but in the case of Greece we may have to use another word of Greek origin. The twists and turns of its debt crisis are reminiscent of those of a Homeric epic.

Geographies:Europe
Topics:Opinion

Available in Spanish, English

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USA and China: the new rules of the game

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Tensions between the USA and China have been rising since Donald Trump was elected president in November of last year. During his election campaign, Trump accused China of manipulating its exchange rate, threatening to introduce trade tariffs of 45% on imports from Asian industrial power.

Available in Spanish, English

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More growth, but with more risks

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The Spanish economy is growing and creating employment. During the next two years it is likely that just over 900,000 jobs will be created and that the unemployment rate will fall to around 15% by the end of 2018. However, certain risks have arisen.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Sclerotic no more

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Annualised growth of 2% last quarter, levels of confidence close to all-time highs, industrial production and exports on the rise, consumer indicators strong, unemployment rate falling for more than three years…

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Algorithms, key intangible assets in the finance industry

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An algorithm is a sequenced series of instructions in which certain inputs are transformed into outputs; in other words a procedure for solving problems by following precise instructions. Its uses in the financial sector are varied: from enhancing the user experience and the offer of personalised services to fast, automated decision making and operating efficiency.

Available in Spanish, English

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Freeing up Spain's Autonomous Communities

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The Autonomous Community Liquidity Fund succeeded in reducing the cost of regional financing and avoiding the need for more procyclical fiscal policies. Nevertheless, having achieved that goal, there is now a need to implement a plan that allows regional governments to return to market-based financing.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Central bank's independence in question

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In the depths of the financial crisis the central banks emerged as saviours, with miraculous injections of liquidity and soothing interest rate cuts. With their unlimited capacity for creating liquidity, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank played the leading roles in the escape from the Lehman and euro crises respectively.

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Paradox of Progress: Global Trends for the next few years

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Every four years, the US National Intelligence Council produces a Global Trends report for the incoming president, describing the trends and challenges the world will face in the medium term. Last week the latest report was presented under the title “Paradox of Progress”, with the sub-heading “Global Trends and Key Implications Through 2035”.

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For families, low interest rates and deleveraging are good news

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The current environment of low interest rates is expected to persist for quite some time, at least in Europe. This situation has affected Spanish households and businesses both positively and negatively. Specifically, the impact of the ECB's expansive policies has been positive for families, which have seen their borrowing costs fall by more than their income from deposits

Geographies:Europe
Topics:Opinion

Available in Spanish, English

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Forecasts in the post-truth era

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The economic confidence indicators have clearly improved in the major regions in the last quarter of 2016, especially in the manufacturing sector, world trade seems to be recovering after its lacklustre start to the year, and consumption continues to be relatively strong.

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Forecast 2017

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What will we be talking about in 2017? In macroeconomic terms, 2017 will be the fourth consecutive year of growth, and the consensus seems to point unanimously to a slowdown, although activity will be sufficiently dynamic to continue reducing some of the major imbalances in the Spanish economy.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Stranger Things

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2016 has been a year of surprises. First came the surprise result of the UK referendum in favour of leaving the EU, to be followed a few months later by the US presidential elections. Both events mark the end of the status quo.

Available in Spanish, English

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Can blockchain be regulated?

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If there is one subject that is in fashion in the field of digital banking it is without doubt blockchain. Most of the world’s banks are studying the potential applications of this secure, distributed database which eliminates the need for a trusted intermediary.

Available in Spanish, English

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