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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 20 October 2017

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Highlights: BCBS published progress report on Basel framework adoption. FSB issued report on cybersecurity. EBA published guidelines on complaints under PSD2. ESMA presented first overview of derivatives market and received a mandate from EC to issue recurrent reports. Finally, CFTC published CCP’s liquidity stress test results.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | A more synchronized recovery

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Recent data point to a broadly unchanged global scenario (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ in 2H17). Our new projections are unchanged for the US despite hurricanes and political uncertainty and indicate more positive outlooks for China and the Eurozone this year. Central banks continue their very gradual normalization process.

Available in English

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How do the Central Banks talk?: a Big Data approach to Turkey

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Big Data analysis offers a huge potential for economic research. Natural Language Processing techniques allow us to read the policy documents of the Central Banks and to analyse the topics and sentiments inside. We extend the NLP analysis to the CB of the Emerging Markets to analyse the monetary policy evolution over time of the Central Bank of Turkey.

Available in English

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China | Policy-led growth moderation coupled with mitigated financial risks

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China’s Q3 GDP growth declined to 6.8% from its 6.9% y/y reading in 1H. It suggests that after registering a stronger-than-expected growth in 1H, the economy showed more signs of moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include the continuing prudent monetary policy and the regulatory tightening on shadow banking and property market.

Available in English

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IFRS 9: Pro-cyclicality of provisions. Spanish banks as an illustration

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IFRS 9 incorporates a forward looking assessment by moving from an incurred credit loss approach to an expected credit loss approach for the measurement of impairment allowances with the aim of recognising credit losses earlier in the cycle. This paper discusses the implications of this new approach for regulatory capital including its procyclicality for Spanish banks.

Available in English

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Portugal: growth picked up in 3Q17

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The available data points to a slight pick-up in GDP growth in 3Q17 of around 0.5% QoQ, SWDA. This estimate is likely to result from new momentum in investment and the lively levels of both exports and tourism. However, these may be counteracted by a less bullish performance of private consumption and an uptick in imports.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. October 2017

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Update of the risk assessment by the Financial System Stability Council (CESF). The value of construction companies’ activity fell 2.7% in July 2017. Losses for Emerging Market assets on investor expectations factoring in an additional hike by the Fed towards year end

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 13 October 2017

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Highlights: FSB issued a report on interest rate benchmarks. EC published a communication on the finalization of the Banking Union, and the first review of the SSM. EBA issued consultation on resolution plan reporting and issued opinion on Brexit relocations. Finally, the US Treasury published the second report on financial regulation.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Blockchain: The Road to Utopia

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Non-financial blockchain applications are growing exponentially. Transaction costs will decline considerably, thereby impacting the role of intermediaries. The blockchain is expected to set the basis for better economic, social and political systems

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey: Credit Shock & the Economy

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Since the implementation of the Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) last March, it has provided some extra GDP growth through both the increase in supply and demand of credit, but it will also have side effects. In this watch, we use a Sign Restrictions SVAR model to disentangle the effects of the KGF on the economy from both supply and demand of credit.

Available in English

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Turkey: Robust Activity in 3Q

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In August, industrial production (IP) growth came in at 5.2% yoy (cal.adj.) and retail sales index’ growth rate accelerated further. As August data signals further acceleration in the economic activity, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 8.2% growth for 3Q (26% information for September).

Available in English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 6 October 2017

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Highlights: Spanish Council of Ministers approved Decree Law to facilitate firms’ mobility. ECB issued a consultation on its NPLs guidelines, and issued an opinion on proposed regulation for CCPs supervision and authorization. BCBS issued a statement on NSFR and derivative liabilities treatment. Finally, EBA and ESMA published their corresponding workplans for 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | State Monthly Activity Indexes. October 2017

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Economic activity increased in 47 states, and declined in AK, DE and WV. Stronger global growth, a rebound in the mining sector and increased trade activity supporting regional growth. Florida and Texas to face headwinds from hurricanes Irma and Harvey, but effects should be transitory. Fundamentals in the Sunbelt region remain auspicious in spite of weather events

Available in Spanish, English

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Inflation: Another surprise from core inflation

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CPI increased by 0.65% (mom) in September. Annual consumer inflation, hence, rose to 11.2% from August’s 10.7%. Core inflation was the negative surprise, reaching 11%. Negative food inflation in contrast to its seasonal average avoided the headline to climb up further. We expect the headline to increase further before it reaches 10% at the end of 2017 with base effects.

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - September 2017 Update

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European political arena focused the world attention in September given the German elections and the Catalonian political uncertainty after the referendum vote. North Korea crisis remained as one of the main world threats, as well as the regional instability in Middle East, which increased uncertainties after the Kurdish independency referendum results.

Available in Spanish, English

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