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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 16 February 2018

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Highlights: IOSCO issued a report on the protection of investors of OTC leveraged products. ESRB issued recommendations to address systemic risk for investments funds. ESAs issued a warning regarding virtual currencies. The CNMV presented its action plan for 2018. The PRA issued a consultation regarding algorithmic trading.

Available in Spanish, English

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Reaching the 2019 deficit target will require additional fiscal adjustments

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The recovery of activity and a strong control of spending anticipate the compliance with the stability target of 2017. With a broadly neutral fiscal stance for 2018 and 2019, Spain will exit the excessive deficit protocol, but it could fail to achieve its targets.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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China | ODI from the Middle Kingdom: What’s next after the big turnaround?

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China’s ODI saw a big turnaround as its strong growth momentum in 2016 came to a halt last year due to the authorities’ restrictive measures to curb capital outflows. We use a deal-based database by CGTI to detect where China’s ODI goes. Despite uncertain global political and economic environment, outbound investment by Chinese firms is likely to rise over the long term.

Available in English

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Mexico | Higher oil prices in 2017 helped to improve the fiscal and external balances

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Although we predict that crude oil prices will continue to recover this year and beyond, a substantial improvement in these balances will only be achievable in the medium term if the following factors remain: i) strong performance of tax revenues; ii) strict discipline over public spending; and iii) the impulse derived from the manufacturing export sector.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 9 February 2018

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Highlights: ESMA issued guidelines to manage conflict of interest in CCPs, a final ITS on the application of MAR, several work programmes and updated a set of Q&As. EBA updated a guide on risk indicators. BdE and CNMV issued a joint statement on cryptocurrencies and ICOs. Finally, the EC issued a call for feedback regarding public reporting obligations.

Available in Spanish, English

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Synthetic inflation indicator in the Eurozone, closing the gap in a sustained manner

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Unconventional measures taken by the ECB and the combination of several events on multiple fronts are contributing, in a very gradual way, to the pushing up of inflation, although it is a long way from getting back to the ECB’s target. Once the ECB is more confident on achieving the sustained adjustment on the path of inflation, it will adjust its forward guidance.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | Activity beats expectations in 4Q17

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Industrial production (IP) grew by 8.7% yoy (cal. adj.) in December 2017 above the market call of near 7%. Hence, the moderation in IP proved to be limited with 7.8% annual growth in 4Q after 10.2% growth in 3Q. We maintain our 2017 GDP growth estimate at 7% with risks on the upside while the economy may moderate towards near 4.5% in 2018.

Available in English

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Banxico will deliver the signaled 25bp hike

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The inflation outlook improvement warrants a more dovish tone. We expect wording changes to signal a possible pause in coming meetings.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

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Spain | New mortgage rings in the new year with good results

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Following a slump in October, home sales plateaued in November. Information from subsequent months, however, points to reinvigorated sales, with mortgages up in December and both employment and consumer confidence showing improvements at the outset of 2018. Visas, meanwhile, were down in November.

Available in Spanish

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Mexico | Remittances grew 6.6% in 2017,reaching a new historical peak at US$28.771 billion

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The annualised growth of March (15%), July (10.8%), October (19%) and December (11.2%) of 2017 contributed greatly to reaching this record figure, mitigating the falls that occurred in some months of the year.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Protest - January 2018

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President Trump gave his first State of the Union speech in the Congress to highlight his administration’s policies. Rivalry between Washington and Russia/China and the intention to contain Iran and North Korea have been revealed once again in his remarks. Europe remained calm, while some hot spots were observed in Latin America and Asia.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | Inflation fell on base effects as expected

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Consumer prices increased by 1.02% (mom) in January, higher than our forecast (0.75%) but lower than the market call (1.3%). Annual consumer inflation fell to 10.35% from 11.92% thanks to favorable base effects mostly on food. We expect the headline to ease slightly below 10% by end 1Q but then show some volatility before falling to around 9% at the end of the year.

Available in English

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Spain Regional Watch. First quarter 2018

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The progressive deceleration of domestic demand and foreign tourism, together with an improvement in the export sector of goods and the effects of Catalan political tension, bias the growth towards the peninsular center. The unemployment rate will approach minimums at the end of 2019 in some Autonomous Communities.

Available in Spanish

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 2 February 2018

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Highlights: SRB published non-confidential documents on the resolution of Banco Popular. ESRB published a report on SBBS. EBA launched the 2018 stress test in cooperation with ECB. EC published sustainable finance report. EU Council adopted the Brexit negotiation directives for the transition period. Finally, ESMA published the results for CCPs stress test.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment resumed upward trend in 2018

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index resumed its upward trend in 2018, underpinned by a stronger GDP and on-going efforts to curb financial risks. Housing vulnerability index has seen significant improvement, SOE index rebounded somewhat despite deteriorating earlier. Shadow banking vulnerability index stabilized while Exchange rate index declined on RMB appreciation.

Available in English

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