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Economic recovery facilitates compliance with stability targets

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The deficit adjustment continues in April 2017, led by Central government. In this scenario, the stability objectives are achievable thanks to the economic recovery. Given the persistence of imbalances, such as high public debt levels, there is still much work to be done for the control of the public accounts.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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ECB Watch: Further steps in the autumn

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As widely expected, the ECB remained on hold, in a unanimous decision. The discussion on tapering of QE to take place in the Autumn, most likely in September. The ECB is paying “attention” to the appreciation of the euro

Available in Spanish, English

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Portugal: growth forecast for 2017 and 2018 raised

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Available data point to a stabilisation of GDP growth during 2Q17 at around 0.5% QoQ, SWDA1. This estimate is likely to be the result of the continued growth of private consumption and the positive contribution of both the construction sector and tourism.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Upward revision of GDP with a broad-based recovery

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests that GDP growth could have improved again in 2Q (0.7% QoQ) as strong confidence has been met by better hard data. We have revised upwards GDP forecast for 2017 (by 0.3pp to 2.0%), though we continue to expect some moderation for 2018 (1.7%). The ECB is expected to embark in a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Political risk has eased.

Available in English

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U.S. | The Permian basin and the rebound in U.S. crude oil production

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U.S. crude oil production continues to increase, complicating efforts made by OPEC and its partners to stabilize the market through output cuts. After reaching a bottom in July 2016, U.S. production has surged by 969,000 b/d to 9.4 million b/d as of July 7 2017. At this pace, production could surpass its previous peak of 9.6 million b/d sometime in what remains of 2017.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Big Data, Dwindling Participation

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How Big Data helps in understanding secular declines in U.S. prime age labor force participation

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Growth momentum is stronger than market expectations

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2017 Q2 GDP reached 6.9% y/y, flat with Q1 outturn and higher than the market concensus of 6.8% y/y, suggesting growth momentum is stronger than expected. The strong growth momentum is reflected in a batch of economic activity indicators released today. Both surging external demand and comparatively easing credit condition in June contributed to the good performance.

Available in English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 14 July 2017

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Highlights: The Council of the EU set out the action plan to deal with NPLs. The European Commission issued a consultation on the creation of secondary markets for NPLs. EBA updated its impact assessment of IFRS 9 on banks. Finally CNMV extended the short-selling ban on Liberbank.

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. July 2017

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Mortgage rates are firmly on the rise. The CNBV has released an update on its Financial Inclusion Report. Banxico has updated its report on housing loan indicators. Payroll loans have become more sluggish in spite of the improved conditions as regards the sum borrowed and the lending rate

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Positive outlook, with projections revised across areas

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Robust and steady global growth in 2Q (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ) with some rebalancing among the major areas. Confidence and global trade growth seem to stabilize at high levels, supporting the ongoing recovery of the industrial sector. New projections for 2017-18 are revised upwards in the Eurozone and China and downwards in US. Risks remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey: May IP hints a more balanced outlook

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Industrial production (IP) grew by 3.5% in May (calendar adjusted, YoY), signaling that economic activity maintains its momentum in 2Q17. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) also confirms this with a growth rate close to 5% YoY by June (with 26% information so far).

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 7 July 2017

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Highlights: FSB issues final guidance on internal TLAC and continuity of access to market infrastructures. BCBS assesses as largely compliant the EU’s implementation of LCR. EBA consults on the implementation risk-based contributions for deposit guarantee schemes. ESMA consults on short selling regulation. Finally, BdE consults on the introduction of new accounting rules.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | State Monthly Activity Indexes. July 2017

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Regional recovery still on track in spite of pullback in expectations nationally

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - June 2017 Update

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North Korean crisis heated up as a US student has passed away after the end of its captivity and Pyongyang regime continues with the missile tests. The Trump administration is considering further pressure on Chinese efforts to contain the crisis. The fights in Raqqa and Mosul accelerate, but some uncertainties will remain in the Post-War period.

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Turkey Monthly Economic Monitor | June

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Recovery in IP continues with the support from both exporting and domestic demand oriented sectors. We expect the GDP growth in 2Q to accelerate even further, as early signals from May suggest a growth rate close to 6%. Turkish lira stabilized at 3.50-3.55 band as global and local factors balance each other and the CBRT maintains its hawkish tone

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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