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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 26 May 2017

By , ,

Highlights: FSB publishes recommendations to strengthen the governance of financial institutions, analysing whether reforms have reduced misconduct. The FSB and the BIS published a joint report on the increase in the provision of credit by FinTech platforms. The ECB published its financial stability report, highlighting issues of macroprudential policy.

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Spain | Economic recovery gains traction during 2Q17

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The recovery of the Spanish economy strengthens during 2Q17. Quarterly GDP growth is estimated to accelerate up to 1.0 or 1.1%. If this forecast is confirmed, it would imply a slight upward bias on the 2017 growth considered in BBVA’s scenario (3.0%).

Geographies:Spain

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Eurozone | The outlook remains positive as political risks ease

By , , , ,

GDP grew 0.5% QoQ in 1Q while soft data suggests higher momentum in 2Q (BBVAe: 0.6% QoQ) and foreign trade is strong. But industrial output and retail sales decelerated in 1Q. Inflation pressures are still distant as wages growth remains subdued. Despite the more upbeat outlook and the ease of political uncertainty, risks to short-term growth remain tilted to the downside.

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The beginning of 2017 shows a good performance of fiscal stance

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Spain reached the stability target in 2016, due to expenditure containment and fiscal measures adopted in the last quarter. In 2017, in a favourable economic environment, the recent performance of public accounts suggests that the deficit adjustment continues. 2017 and 2018 stability objectives are achievable, but will require a tight control of public expenditure.

Geographies:Spain

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Financial deleveraging: two steps forward; one step back

By , ,

After months of persistent regulatory tightening in domestic financial markets, China’s authorities unexpectedly fine-tuned their stance of monetary prudence by injecting liquidity into the banking sector. We interpret the authorities’ strategy as “two steps forward one step back”. After the market stabilizes and absorbs their messages, they are set to leap forward again.

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U.S. | Auto sales: a look under the hood

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Both secular and cyclical factors are behind the current slowdown in auto sales. We expect auto sales to fall below 17 million units in 2017. The decline in demand could prompt a significant adjustment in the auto industry

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Global growth is still gaining momentum in 2Q17, but there are some signs of stabilisation

By , , , ,

Global growth accelerated in 1Q to 0.9% QoQ and 2Q data so far suggest further global momentum (1% QoQ). Confidence data remain very positive, especially for developed economies, while hard data point to higher investment. Moreover, the exports recovery remains on track, partly explained by upward trend in investment in recent quarters.

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Experience of Student in Money Matters: PISA perspective

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According to the results obtained from PISA Financial Literacy, students usually talk weekly or monthly about money matters, and the deal is greater with adult relatives than with their friends. Even so, there are differences among countries, both in frequency and conversational partner.

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. May 2017

By , , , , , , , ,

Reduced demand reflected in slower rise in house prices compared with 2016. Banco de México presents a report on competition in payroll-related services. Banco de México publishes the first report on basic indicators of lending to SMEs. New tool for analysing personal lending conditions. Renewed threats of possible withdrawal from NAFTA amid low risk-aversion environment

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

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China | Now comes moderation

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, China’s economy started to show more signs of moderation in April. Growth moderation is due in part to the authorities’ monetary prudence and tight regulations targeted at the risky shadow banking activities as well as the overheating property market.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - April 2017 Update

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Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. China will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue against ISIS. The US supported the YPG's advance in Raqqa.

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Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data

Document Number 17/13

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We develop an indicator to track vulnerability sentiment in China. In order to ensure robustness and depth, we use a combination of traditional macroeconomic and financial time series with textual analysis using Big Data techniques.The index is composed by the following dimensions: state owned enterprises; shadow banking; housing market bubble and exchange rate market.

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Spain | Real Estate Outlook. May 2017

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The evolution of the real estate industry in the first months of the year was positive. Housing sales maintained its growth pace supported by strong employment and mortgage credit. The construction activity maintained the dynamism. Positive surprises in the macroeconomic scenario introduce an upward bias in the sector forecasts.

Geographies:Spain

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Turkey: Gradual Recovery Underway

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Incoming data suggest the gradual recovery in economic activity is still underway. Our monthly GDP indicator signals economic activity to grow at 3.3% YoY, slightly lower than 4Q16 growth of 3.5%. We think that lagged impacts of Government incentives on top of rapid credit expansion and tax cuts will be supporting growth, especially in 2H17

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Spain | Regional watch. Second quarter 2017

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The revision of Spain's GDP increase in 2017 from 2.7% to 3.0% is supported by the evolution of exports and the greater activity in residential construction. The biggest upward revisions are in the Balearics, the Canaries and Madrid, which will continue to be the most dynamic regions. In 2018 GDP will increase by 2.7%, with a lower growth heterogeneity.

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China | Vulnerability sentiment edging towards neutral

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) moderated in April after improving since July 2016. The CVSI is now edging to neutral, however the components of the index show divergence. The moderation can be related to a decline in housing and FX components. The shadow banking component remained positive on a tighter monetary policy stance and macroprudential measures.

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