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China | Growth slowdown in Q3 calls for more easing measures

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Sep economic indicators, together with Q3 GDP, were reported today. Q3 GDP growth slowed down to 6.5% y/y, compared with 6.7% y/y in the previous quarter and 6.6% of the market consensus. This suggests the economy further moderated amid the escalation of trade war and domestic deleveraging. We expect monetary and fiscal policy to become more pro-growth in the rest of year.

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China | Peering into the local government debt: rising risks call for prompt actions

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We attempt to answer the questions regarding China’s local government debt: (i) what’s the total size of the local government debt; (ii) why the local government debt has grown to today’s level despite the central government’s clamping-down efforts; (iii) whether the risks are still manageable; and (iv) how can the authorities solve this local government debt problem.

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China | Stable Sentiment towards Financial Vulnerabilities - 3Q18

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The China Vulnerability Sentiment Index remained stable through Q3 despite the escalated trade disputes with the US and growth slowdown. By component, the SOE index remained vulnerable. Both Housing Bubble and Shadow banking index still held well. The Exchange Rate Index plummeted before recovered on the central bank’s revealed efforts to stabilize the exchange rate.

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China | A big data approach to gauge trade-war fears in Asia

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In this watch, we examine the evolving trade-war sentiment across Asian economies using Big Data analysis.

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Fighting an uphill battle - the overcapacity in China's steel industry

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This presentation analyzes China's overcapacity problem in the Iron & Steel industry. On top of reviewing the past (unsuccessful) efforts to eliminate overcapacity, it attempts to provide policy suggestions for the clean-up of obsolete capacity.

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China | Recent easing measures helped to stabilize growth

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August economic indicators are announced today, suggesting the recent monetary and fiscal easing measures helped to stabilize economic growth. However, headwinds from domestic deleveraging and the escalating trade war will continue to weigh on growth. Monetary and fiscal policy to become more pro-growth although the authorities remain vigilant on financial vulnerabilities.

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China | Growth slowdown continues

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July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, suggesting that growth slowdown continued. In particular, FAI, industrial production and retail sales dropped from the previous readings and below the market expectations. More easing measures of monetary policy and more pro-growth fiscal stimulus are expected in coming months.

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China | What is our expectation of Bilateral Investment Treaty with the EU?

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Our report analyzes the current situation of the China-EU bilateral investment and investigates the contents and difficulties of BIT negotiations. We expect that the BIT between China and the EU will be a game-changer weapon to help China to end its trade war with the US. Moreover, it will also catalyze structural reforms in China and boost its domestic growth.

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China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Q2 GDP moderated to 6.7% y/y amid the trade war and domestic deleveraging, down from the previous reading at 6.8% y/y and in line with the consensus. In particular, outturns of trade, industrial production and investment are below the market expectations and the previous readings. Headwinds are from domestic deleveraging initiatives and trade war with the US externally.

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China | What will be the country’s weapons in the trade war arsenal?

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After reviewing a number of methods which China could use in the escalating trade dispute with the US, we find that China’s policy options to counter the US tariff measures are actually limited. We expect that the authorities are unlikely to resort to methods of dumping US treasury bonds and guiding currency depreciation.

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China | Growth moderation amid trade risk and domestic deleveraging

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May economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, point to an expected moderation in growth. In particular, all indicators dropped from the previous readings and the market expectations. This suggests that headwinds are weighing on growth, mainly from domestic tightening policy and the unsettled trade skirmishes.

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China | What do China’s renewed opening efforts imply for foreign banks?

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China announced a plan of furthering its long-delayed financial opening to remove restrictions on foreign shareholdings and expand market access. A new round of capital account liberalization also brings more opportunities for two-way capital flows. This watch examines how these new measures can help foreign financial institutions to grow in China and their implications.

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China | Reignited China-US trade war and its implication on global value chain

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We attempt to evaluate the impact of the newly announced 25% tariff on Chinese imports of USD 50 billion from the perspective of global value chain. The result shows that the newly proposed punitive measure from the US side can have limited impact on China’s growth and exports, even to a much less extent on other countries on the same global value chain.

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China | Mixed results from US trade talks

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The second round of negotiations held last week between the US and China to resolve a long standing bitter trade dispute has yielded mixed results. While ongoing trade talks have been broadly progressive, they are unlikely to provide a quick fix permanent solution to US-China trade tensions, which stem from bilateral trust deficit and deeper structural issues.

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China | Financial liberalization: time to restart

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The process of China’s financial liberalization ground to a halt in 2015-2017 after experiencing a cluster of episodes of financial turmoil. After a few years of adjustment, the authorities now seem to be ready to press ahead with their agenda of financial liberalization again. Moreover, the authorities’ renewed interest in financial liberalization is broad-based.

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