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China | Better-than-expected Q4 GDP ends 2018 with slowest growth in years

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Q4 2018 GDP reached 6.4% y/y, sending the full-year growth to 6.6%, which is the lowest annual growth since 1990, despite the recent easing measures and the positive signals of China-US trade relation. We believe growth deceleration is the prime risk throughout 2019 although China and the US are likely to strike a deal to end the tariff war in the coming March.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | Risk pendulum shifts to a fast growth slowdown

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Nov indicators are announced today, together with previously released trade and credit data, suggesting growth slowdown is faster than expectation despite the recent easing measures. A confluence of factors weighs on growth: dampened confidence of China-US trade tensions, the faded effect of front-loading exports and persistent tightening of domestic deleveraging.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China’s corporate sector: Deleveraging or re-leveraging?

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In face of intensifying growth headwinds and private enterprises woes, the authorities have shifted their policy stance from "deleveraging" to "stabilizing firm's leverage". Stimulating growth and controlling debt at the same time is a challenging task, the authorities could achieve a balanced objective if appropriate policy initiatives are to be implemented.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | Trump-Xi meeting declares a trade war truce, paving way for further talks

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The US-China relationship seems to get a favourable turn after a highly anticipated dinner on last Saturday between Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina. In particular, both sides agreed to keep the trade war from escalating with a promise to halt the imposition of new tariffs for 90 days and intensify their negotiations in the following months.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | RMB exchange rate outlook under the trade war threat

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RMB exchange rate is on its second wave of depreciation since the devaluation in August 2015. Escalating trade war, economic slowdown and divergence of US and China’s monetary policy contributed to the depreciation. The authorities' attitude has been from “ride-on-the-wave” to “lean-against-the-wind” and RMB outlook is hinging on the meeting between Trump and Xi in G20.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | Easing measures stabilized growth while headwinds persist

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A batch of October economic indicators is announced today, together with the credit data, suggesting that the recent policy easing helped to stabilize economic growth. However, headwinds from the unsettled trade war with the US and domestic deleveraging still weigh on growth. As such, we expect monetary and fiscal policy to become more pro-growth in the rest of the year.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

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2018 Q3 GDP moderated to 6.5% y/y, down from the previous reading at 6.7% y/y and the market consensus. This suggests the economy further moderated amid the escalation of trade war and domestic deleveraging. The growth slowdown has prompted the authorities to reverse their previous neutral stance of policy to pro-growth so as to offset domestic and external headwinds.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | Growth slowdown in Q3 calls for more easing measures

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Sep economic indicators, together with Q3 GDP, were reported today. Q3 GDP growth slowed down to 6.5% y/y, compared with 6.7% y/y in the previous quarter and 6.6% of the market consensus. This suggests the economy further moderated amid the escalation of trade war and domestic deleveraging. We expect monetary and fiscal policy to become more pro-growth in the rest of year.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | Peering into the local government debt: rising risks call for prompt actions

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We attempt to answer the questions regarding China’s local government debt: (i) what’s the total size of the local government debt; (ii) why the local government debt has grown to today’s level despite the central government’s clamping-down efforts; (iii) whether the risks are still manageable; and (iv) how can the authorities solve this local government debt problem.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | Stable Sentiment towards Financial Vulnerabilities - 3Q18

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The China Vulnerability Sentiment Index remained stable through Q3 despite the escalated trade disputes with the US and growth slowdown. By component, the SOE index remained vulnerable. Both Housing Bubble and Shadow banking index still held well. The Exchange Rate Index plummeted before recovered on the central bank’s revealed efforts to stabilize the exchange rate.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | A big data approach to gauge trade-war fears in Asia

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In this watch, we examine the evolving trade-war sentiment across Asian economies using Big Data analysis.

Available in English

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Fighting an uphill battle - the overcapacity in China's steel industry

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This presentation analyzes China's overcapacity problem in the Iron & Steel industry. On top of reviewing the past (unsuccessful) efforts to eliminate overcapacity, it attempts to provide policy suggestions for the clean-up of obsolete capacity.

Available in English

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China | Recent easing measures helped to stabilize growth

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August economic indicators are announced today, suggesting the recent monetary and fiscal easing measures helped to stabilize economic growth. However, headwinds from domestic deleveraging and the escalating trade war will continue to weigh on growth. Monetary and fiscal policy to become more pro-growth although the authorities remain vigilant on financial vulnerabilities.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | Growth slowdown continues

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July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, suggesting that growth slowdown continued. In particular, FAI, industrial production and retail sales dropped from the previous readings and below the market expectations. More easing measures of monetary policy and more pro-growth fiscal stimulus are expected in coming months.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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China | What is our expectation of Bilateral Investment Treaty with the EU?

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Our report analyzes the current situation of the China-EU bilateral investment and investigates the contents and difficulties of BIT negotiations. We expect that the BIT between China and the EU will be a game-changer weapon to help China to end its trade war with the US. Moreover, it will also catalyze structural reforms in China and boost its domestic growth.

Geographies:Asia China

Available in English

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