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Turkey | Still solid activity in April…to decelerate

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The Industrial production (IP) grew by 6.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, slightly above the market consensus of 5.65% in April. Our monthly GDP indicator still nowcasts slightly below 6% yoy growth for 2Q18 as of May. Considering the overheating in the 1Q and the 500bps tightening in last two months, we expect GDP growth to be near 3.5% this year.

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Turkey | Still high 1Q GDP but already moderating

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GDP grew by 7.4% (YoY) in 1Q18 above both consensus and our expectation (7% vs. 6%). The acceleration in growth on quarterly basis was surprising (2% vs 1.7% in 4Q), mainly supported by the boost in private consumption and the recovery in investment. We forecast 2018 GDP growth to be 3.5-4.0% as we expect adjustment of the economy to become more obvious from now onwards.

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Turkey | CBRT surprised markets on the upside

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The Central Bank (CBRT) hiked the one-week repo rate by 125 bps to 17.75%, clearly above market expectations (BBVA Research 50bps). With the decision, the CBRT reinforces its stance on inflation worries in the short term and takes a solid step to restore credibility against rapidly worsening inflation expectations.

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Turkey | Inflation outlook deteriorated further in May

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Consumer prices increased 1.62% (mom) in May, slightly higher than BBVA Research & Consensus estimate of 1.45%. Annual consumer inflation jumped to 12.15% from 10.85% on a broad-based worsening. We expect a limited hike (around 50bps) in the next CBRT meeting on June, 7 to strengthen its recent policy decisions and enhance credibility.

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Turkey´s 300bps hike: The later, the tighter

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The CBRT decided yesterday to raise the “de facto” policy interest rate (Late Liquidity Window) by 300bps to 16.5% to correct the significant depreciation of the Turkish Lira, also with other reasons including the huge deviation of inflation from the target and expectations, financial stability motives and rapid loss of credibility during the last two weeks.

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Turkey | Economic activity moderates

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The Industrial production (IP) grew by 7.6% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (Consensus: 7.2% vs. BBVA Research: 6.5%) in March. The average IP growth rate reached 9.8% in 1Q, moderating from 10.7% in 4Q17. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 6.4% yoy growth in 1Q (96% of information). We maintain our 2018 GDP growth estimate at 4%.

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Turkey | High core prices pose additional risks

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Consumer prices increased 1.87% (mom) in April, even higher than our above consensus estimate (1.7% vs. 1.5%).Annual consumer inflation jumped to 10.85% from 10.23% with a more rapid pick-up in core prices than our expectation. We maintain our year-end inflation estimate at 10.5%, though exchange rate volatility and loose policies could pose upside risks.

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Turkey | The CBRT raises rates by 75 bps

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The Central Bank (CBRT) hiked its de-facto policy rate (late liquidity window, LLW) by 75 bps to 13.50%, in line with our expectation but slightly higher than the median market call, 50 bps. At two digits inflation, anti-inflationary policies should be at the forefront of economic strategies in a comprehensive way, including further tightening if needed.

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Turkey | Still limited moderation in activity

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Industrial production (IP) grew by 9.9% yoy (cal. adj.) in February, keeping the high momentum as the overall increase almost stayed the same at 10.9% yoy in the first two months of the year (vs. 10.7% in 4Q). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 5.7% yoy growth for 1Q (with 44% info), with March data showing a much more clearer moderation.

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How do the EM central banks talk? A Big Data approach to the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT)

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In this presentation, we analyze the Central Bank of Turkey's communication strategy. Particularly, what the CBRT is talking about through topic Analysis and “How” the CBRT is talking through sentiment Analysis. We also analyze the interconnectedness between topics using network analysis.

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Turkey | Sticky Inflation

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Consumer inflation recorded 0.99% (mom) in March, in line with the market expectation (1%) but higher than ours (0.75%) on the discrepancy due to surprising food inflation.Recent exchange rate depreciation, upward risks on growth and high inertia (backward and forward looking) obviously create upside risks for our year end 9% forecast.

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Turkey | GDP grew 7.4% in 2017

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GDP grew by 7.3% (YoY) in 4Q17 above both the market consensus and our expectation (6.7%). The upward revision of the first three quarters and stronger than expected Q4 resulted in 7.4% yoy growth in 2017 (3.2% in 2016).We maintain our expectation that GDP growth may normalize to 4.5% in 2018 due to tightening financial conditions with some upside risks.

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Turkey | Revised IP series better fits GDP

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IP grew by 12% yoy (cal. adj.) in January (up from 10.7% in 4Q17) above the market consensus of around 7%. IP data is revised with 2015 as the new base year. The new IP portraits a higher correlation (94%) with the new GDP series and a higher growth performance after 2010 (2.5pp on average).

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Turkey | Quarterly Banking & Financial Stability Monitor. March 2018

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The Turkish banking sector experienced a strong credit growth in 2017 due to the macro-prudential polices implemented together with the public incentives and the Credit Guarantee Fund supports. Starting in 4Q 2017, credit growth stabilized as a result of the normalization in credits; and stands at around 19% as of end of February’2018.

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Turkey | The CBRT stays on hold and keeps the tone tight

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The CBRT kept its policy rates unchanged in line with expectations. In our view, the CBRT should stay tight until inflation outlook proves to contain inflation expectations and remain ready to act if inflation deviates further from their latest inflation projection path.

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