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Country Risk Report. Third Quarter 2017

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Financial markets’ risk-on mood tightens sovereign spreads beyond fundamentals, while financial disequilibria turn on some warning signals in some Advanced Economies

Available in Spanish, English

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International Comparative of resolution frameworks

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Overview of different resolution frameworks: comparison between Europe, US, Latam and Japan.

Available in English

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Country Risk Report. Second Quarter 2017

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Financial tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and sovereign markets spreads have been decreasing for over a year, reaching lows not seen since the spring of 2014 or 2007. Most of the large sovereign spread’s increases seen during the turmoil in 2015 and 2016 in EMs has vanished

Available in English

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Country Risk Report. First Quarter 2017

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Yet another quarter in which Financial Tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and Sovereign CDS have all been easing significantly across the board. The overall decrease in CDS spreads reduced downgrade pressures and increased upgrade ones for most countries. The decline in downgrade pressure was specially noticeable in LatAm , but it was also felt in the rest of EMs.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Some changes for the better

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We continue to see resilience to the various potentially disturbing political events in 2H16. So far, confidence data allow us to be slightly more optimistic. Still more, the recovery of exports and the strength of consumption at the end of 2016 show that positive underlying signs are taking root. Our model suggests GDP to have gained momentum to 0.5%/0.6% QoQ in 4Q16.

Available in Spanish, English

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European Urbanization Trends

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The urbanization process in Europe took place rapidly since 1950, but in the 90s it moderated its pace and it will likely be slower during the next ten years. European cities have become in important hubs for education, innovation and knowledge-based economies. Digitalization has been fundamental to increase competitiveness.

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Country Risk Report. Fourth Quarter 2016

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Turkey was downgraded by S&P and Moody’s. Hungary and Korea were upgraded by S&P. Financial tensions, Global Risk Aversion and sovereign CDS have all been trending downwards since the turmoil at the beginning of the year. China still faces the largest downgrade pressure from the markets, that has significantly risen for Portugal.

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB kept monetary policy stance unchanged

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The ECB kept rates unchanged and reaffirmed the plan to run the APP to March 2017 or beyond if needed. The GC did not discuss any measures (including an extension of the APP). The GC tasked the relevant committees to evaluate the options that ensure a smooth implementation of its purchase programme. The Staff barely changed its projections over the forecast horizon

Available in Spanish, English

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Human Capital and Income Inequality: New Facts and Some Explanations

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Most developing countries have made a great effort to eliminate illiteracy rates. As a result, the average human capital Gini coefficient dropped from 0.55 in 1960 to 0.28 in 2005.

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Further action likely in September

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The ECB has left the monetary policy stance unchanged. The ECB needs more time to reassess the degree of policy accommodation. Unrelated to monetary policy, Draghi opens the possibility of a “public backstop” for NPL’s.

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The economic consequences of Brexit

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The UK has decided to exit the European Union in a referendum with a 52%-48% margin, and a participation rate of 72%. Prime Minister (PM) Cameron has resigned and will remain in charge until October, when the Conservative Party will choose its next leader. This note and the attached presentation look at the economic consequences of Brexit.

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Country Risk Report. Second Quarter 2016

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Argentina was upgraded by the three agencies after its return to the bond markets. Ireland was upgraded by Moody’s. Fitch downgraded Brazil and upgraded Hungary. The market pressure (downgrades/upgrades) has stabilized after a calmed quarter. Turkey, Chile, Colombia, China and Malaysia still on the spotlight.

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Wait-and-see stance

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As expected, at today’s monetary policy meeting there were no changes in the ECB´s monetary policy stance, as the central bank left the key policy rate unchanged at 0.0% and the deposit rate at -0.4%. The ECB’s Staff macroeconomic projections barely changed over the forecast horizon. The focus is on the implementation of the measures announced in March

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Minutes: 21 April meeting

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The minutes confirmed that the GC was unanimous in its commitment to deliver on its mandate. The GC agreed that there was no need to consider any change in its current monetary policy stance. The ECB strongly reiterated the need for other policy areas to contribute to euro area economic recovery

Available in Spanish, English

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Structural Reforms and the Spanish Recovery

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After six years of crisis, Spain is finally recovering due to a favourable combination of external and domestic factors. Although it is difficult to estimate their exact contribution, behind the current economic recovery are the effects of structural reforms, in labour and product markets, the financial system or the public sector.

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