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Eurozone | The outlook remains positive as political risks ease

By , , , ,

GDP grew 0.5% QoQ in 1Q while soft data suggests higher momentum in 2Q (BBVAe: 0.6% QoQ) and foreign trade is strong. But industrial output and retail sales decelerated in 1Q. Inflation pressures are still distant as wages growth remains subdued. Despite the more upbeat outlook and the ease of political uncertainty, risks to short-term growth remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English

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Experience of Student in Money Matters: PISA perspective

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According to the results obtained from PISA Financial Literacy, students usually talk weekly or monthly about money matters, and the deal is greater with adult relatives than with their friends. Even so, there are differences among countries, both in frequency and conversational partner.

Available in Spanish

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Available in Spanish, English

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Available in Spanish, English

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ECB closer to a neutral balance of risks

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There was neither a discussion on the exit strategy nor clear hints of an early shift in the policy stance but risks to growth are more balanced (though still downwards). We expect some changes in forward guidance in June

Available in Spanish, English

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Digital Economy Outlook - April 2017

By , , , ,

In this issue we will focus on: digital platforms: economic features and policy challenges; fostering a data-driven economy in the EU; licensing Fintech companies: authorities trying a balance between fostering innovation and financial stability; behavioural biometrics, a step further in digital identification; the governance of technology in the digital world

Available in Spanish, English

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Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | A more upbeat outlook, but still surrounded by (mostly political) risks

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model estimates growth at 0.5% QoQ in 1Q as improving confidence continued at earlier 2017. Hard data begin to moderate, though foreign trade clearly recovers. Growth forecasts for 2017-18 are revised slightly upwards to 1.7% (+0.1pp) in both years, fostered by higher growth in global demand although risks, mostly political, remain tilted to the downside.

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The impact of European banking consolidation on credit prices

Document Number 17/09

By , , , ,

The crisis has made obvious the fragility of some aspects of EMU, like financial fragmentation and the need of banking consolidation. Banks have merged due to the vulnerability of some players or in order to improve the profitability/efficiency of the sector.

Geographies:Europe
Topics:Banks

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Eurozone | Robust growth in early 2017 and still low core inflation

By , , , ,

After growing at 0.4% in 4Q16, our MICA-BBVA model continues to estimate a quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone of 0.5% QoQ in 1Q17 and puts a slight upward bias to our projection of 1.6% for this year. Confidence indicators reflect this mood better than activity data. Finally, despite the 2.0% YoY headline inflation in February, core measures remain subdued at 0.9% YoY.

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Available in Spanish, English

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Slight change in ECB wording

By , ,

The ECB is more optimistic regarding the growth outlook. Inflation is revised significantly up this year to 1.7% YoY on increasing energy prices, but the ECB barely changes its broad view on core inflation. They still maintain a dovish bias, but they introduce a small tweak that could be the prelude of additional changes in the coming months

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Available in Spanish, English

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White Paper on the future of Europe

By , ,

The European Commission presented its White Paper on the future of Europe. It draws five different scenarios: business as usual, retreat to a pure single market, a variable geometry union, a more efficient union, and a deeper union. The paper clarifies the debate, draws clear pathways to choose, and introduces the debate on what exactly the EU27 should or should not do.

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