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Eurozone | A more upbeat outlook, but still surrounded by (mostly political) risks

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model estimates growth at 0.5% QoQ in 1Q as improving confidence continued at earlier 2017. Hard data begin to moderate, though foreign trade clearly recovers. Growth forecasts for 2017-18 are revised slightly upwards to 1.7% (+0.1pp) in both years, fostered by higher growth in global demand although risks, mostly political, remain tilted to the downside.

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The impact of European banking consolidation on credit prices

Document Number 17/09

By , , , ,

The crisis has made obvious the fragility of some aspects of EMU, like financial fragmentation and the need of banking consolidation. Banks have merged due to the vulnerability of some players or in order to improve the profitability/efficiency of the sector.

Geographies:Europe
Topics:Banks

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Eurozone | Robust growth in early 2017 and still low core inflation

By , , , ,

After growing at 0.4% in 4Q16, our MICA-BBVA model continues to estimate a quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone of 0.5% QoQ in 1Q17 and puts a slight upward bias to our projection of 1.6% for this year. Confidence indicators reflect this mood better than activity data. Finally, despite the 2.0% YoY headline inflation in February, core measures remain subdued at 0.9% YoY.

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Slight change in ECB wording

By , ,

The ECB is more optimistic regarding the growth outlook. Inflation is revised significantly up this year to 1.7% YoY on increasing energy prices, but the ECB barely changes its broad view on core inflation. They still maintain a dovish bias, but they introduce a small tweak that could be the prelude of additional changes in the coming months

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White Paper on the future of Europe

By , ,

The European Commission presented its White Paper on the future of Europe. It draws five different scenarios: business as usual, retreat to a pure single market, a variable geometry union, a more efficient union, and a deeper union. The paper clarifies the debate, draws clear pathways to choose, and introduces the debate on what exactly the EU27 should or should not do.

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Eurozone | A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model estimates growth to reach 0.5% QoQ in 1Q (2H16: 0.4%) as improving confidence at the start of 2017 suggest that the recovery could be gaining momentum in 1Q17. We have revised slightly upward our growth projections to 1.6% this year and next, though political risks persist.

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Available in Spanish, English

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The ECB remains patient

By , ,

As widely expected, the ECB has remained on hold and has not changed its communication. On inflation, also as expected, the ECB has put the focus on underlying inflation -that remains subdued- instead of headline, thus trying to dampen any concerns on inflation. Draghi remarked that the tapering issue was not discussed and he wanted to avoid any speculation on this issue

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