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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 15 December 2017

By , ,

Highlights: EBA published impacts of the finalisation of Basel III framework for European banks. The Council approved EU's legislative priorities for 2018-2019. International standard-setting bodies launched surveys on incentives to centrally clear OTC derivatives trades. Finally, the ESAs published standards on money laundering and terrorist financing risks.

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch: ECB on a wait and see stance

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There was no discussion on any change in the QE recalibration. The ECB seems more confident on the economic expansion. Significant upward revision of staff’s growth forecasts.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 8 December 2017

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Highlights: GHOS announce agreement on outstanding elements of Basel III. BCBS publishes cumulative quantitative impact study on reviewed Basel III and discussion paper on regulatory treatment of sovereign exposures. ESAs publish list of identified financial conglomerates and SRB publishes its 2018 work plan. Bank of Spain approves new accounting rule for credit entities.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 1 December 2017

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Highlights: FSB issued two consultations on bail-in execution and funding in resolution. EBA published report on risks for the banking system, and the transparency exercise. ECB issued consultation on the development of an unsecured overnight interest rate. Finally, EBA repealed its guideline on the identification of deposits subject to different outflows.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Improved outlook, still subdued inflation

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a steady growth pace in 4Q (0.6%/0.7% QoQ), so far supported by very strong confidence, with more mixed signals from hard data. Positive incoming data, mostly from Germany, pose an upward bias to our growth outlook. Both headline and core inflation eased and remain subdued in October, while our forecasts continue at 1.5% and 1.2% for 2017-18.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 24 November 2017

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Highlights: FSB published 2017 updated G-SIB list, while BCBS disclosed additional information on the assessment. The Council of the EU decided to relocate EBA to Paris, and adopted STS securitisation rules. Finally, EBA published final guide on IRB risk parameter estimation, and 2018 stress test methodology.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 17 November 2017

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Highlights: Council endorsed agreement on creditor hierarchy, IFRS 9 and large exposure. EC consulted on backstops for insufficient NPL provisions. ECB issued opinions on the current regulatory reform. EBA published implementation report on O-SIIs, and on internal models’ consistency. ESMA published final report on MMF regulation. BdE consulted on PAC and PAL guidelines.

Available in Spanish, English

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The future of banking in Europe: Drivers and consequences of further consolidation

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Some voices are defending the need for further consolidation as a way of fixing the problems remaining in the European banking system. While further consolidation has some advantages, it also implies some drawbacks and costs. This paper discusses the implications of consolidation for financial stability, solvency, efficiency, competition, digitalization and systemic risk.

Geographies:Europe
Topics:Banks

Available in English

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Banking Union: Half way there

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The European Commission published a roadmap to ensure agreement on all the outstanding elements of the Banking Union by 2018. The EU Commission warns that the Banking Union must be completed if it is to deliver its full potential as a pillar of a strong Economic and Monetary Union and complementary to the Capital Markets Union.

Available in English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 10 November 2017

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Highlights: IOSCO published reports on MMF and securitisation regulation, and on the implementation of FSB recommendation on securities markets. EBA published an opinion on regulatory perimeter under CRD IV/CRR and consulted on methods for prudential consolidation. Finally, the CNMV approved a Circular regarding foreign Collective Investment Schemes.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 3 November 2017

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Highlights: FSB issued report on machine learning in financial services. EBA issued consultations on guidelines to strengthen Pillar 2, and on home-host cooperation under PSD2. EBA issued final guidance on supervision of significant branches, and final recommendation on coverage of entities in banking group recovery plans. Finally, EBA extended the stress test timeline.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 27 October 2017

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Highlights: EP approves fast tracks (on creditor hierarchy, IFRS 9 and large exposure) and STS securitization framework. EC withdrew the Structural Reforms proposal, and published its 2018 workplan. ECB published report on financial structures. BCBS published guidelines for step-in risk. Finally, US Treasury published third report on financial regulation.

Available in Spanish, English

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European Commission withdraws Banking Structural Reform proposal

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The European Commission has decided to withdraw its proposal on Banking Structural Reform after two years without progress on the file. The Commission also recognises that the main objectives pursued by the proposed regulation have already been achieved by other regulatory measures.

Geographies:Europe

Available in English

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ECB Watch: The ECB delivers a "down size" of the APP

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The ECB has opted for an alternative way to taper QE, downsizing monthly purchases to 30 bn euros. The Asset Purchase Programme remains open-ended, extended until September 2018 or beyond. The size of the ECB’s balance sheet and forward guidance will replace net purchases as the main tool for monetary policy

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Higher growth and more subdued inflation in 2017-18

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a steady growth in 3Q17 (0.6% QoQ). We revised upwards growth forecast to 2.2% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018 driven by strong data and domestic factors, although political uncertainty is high. Headline inflation forecasts are revised slightly down to 1.5% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018. The ECB is likely to embark in a gradual normalization in early 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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