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U.S. | Weekly podcast: 100th episode and GDP

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of March 27, 2017. Special topic: 100th episode!

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U.S. | What’s behind the low supply of existing homes for sale?

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The inventory of existing homes for sale has declined y-o-y for 21 consecutive months. Locked low mortgage interest rates and short supply of new housing have contributed to the current situation. The high share of homeowners underwater does not seem to currently play a major role. Low unsold inventory is expected to persist, underscoring the need for new housing units

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Big data analysis: Trump effect on trade narratives

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Public opinions toward certain trade issues have shifted since the election cycle. Policies aimed at reducing trade imbalances seem to have a high priority for the Trump administration

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: auto and housing industries

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of March 20, 2017. Special topic: the U.S. auto industry

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U.S. | Auto industry chartbook (March 2017)

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Solid employment growth, stable gasoline prices and low interest rates contributed to robust vehicle sales through the end of 2016. Demand continues to be biased towards light-trucks and away from cars. Auto lending remains healthy, but this could be impacted by future interest rate hikes.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: trade deficit, interest rates and inflation

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of March 13, 2017. Special topic: the U.S. trade deficit

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FOMC Preview: March 14th-15th Meeting

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Rate hike imminent as Fed uses intermeeting period to cajole markets back to life. Labor market fundamentals and inflation outlook support new baseline for 3 hikes in ‘17. Commitment to a “gradual” pace dependent on FOCM view of neutral interest rates and risks

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | What is the US trade deficit with Mexico really saying?

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State trade data for the US revealed that Michigan and California accounted for 87.4% of the US trade deficit with Mexico of USD 58.4 billion in 2015. Both states have large- and medium-sized cars as their top two import products, which contain a significant share of US inputs. Thus, such trade deficits do not reflect the true nature of the US-Mexico trade relationship

Units:
Geographies:Mexico USA

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | The trade deficit: Don’t fear the beast

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Public perception towards the trade deficit has shifted from being fact-based to sentiment-based. Economic pattern of the deficit strongly correlates with the structural shift in the U.S. economy. U.S. has a higher per capita deficit with Ireland and Germany than it does with China or Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation U.S. Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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The Fed in recognizing the underlying strength of the economy is all but certain raise rates in March and embark on a more aggressive tightening schedule in 2017. Full employment on horizon, as the unemployment rate trends at 4.8%. If improvements in labor market continue at current pace the approximately 1 million left out of the labor force should be absorbed by 2018

Available in English

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U.S. | Banking outlook 1Q17

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Deposit and loan growth is expected to remain strong amid solid portfolio quality. Banks should benefit from some regulatory relief, even if large legislative changes take time to pass. Profitability will continue to improve and could be further boosted by lower corporate tax rates

Geographies:USA
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: jobs, jobs, jobs

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of March 6, 2017. Special topic: the labor market

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. February 2017

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The FOMC minutes have reinforced the commitment to gradual rate normalization, however the pace of tightening could change if the risk of overheating the economy is perceived. The Primary Dealer’s expectations remained unchanged. Fed funds futures continue to price in two rate hikes in 2017 but imply 50-50 odds for the FOMC’s action in March

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: personal income, personal spending and construction spending

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of February 27, 2017

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Available in Spanish, English

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United States Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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Administration’s agenda has the potential to boost U.S. economy, but high degree of uncertainty remains. For the time being, the Fed’s appetite for higher growth and inflation may be limited. However, normalization path to remain gradual. Mix of policies and timing could produce distinct group of winners and losers at the state level

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: oil price outlook and home sales

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of February 20, 2017. Special topic: oil price outlook

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Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | The road ahead for electric vehicles

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Electric vehicles have become more reliable and attractive due to technological progress and government support. However, prospects for mass adoption are still constrained by technological limitations, charging infrastructure, policy uncertainty and oil prices

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: inflation, retail sales and housing starts

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of February 13, 2017

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