alert_servicealert_serviceENTER user_add user_add NEW USER

Forgot your password?


Stay logged in to leave
Publication date
From
To
x

Your space


Forgot your password?
x

Login to participate



Not registered yet? Register now
x
Make your search by entering the text:
Make your search for other criteria:
Catalog Icon

China Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2018

By ,

The Q4 GDP growth came at 6.8% y/y, marginally surprised the market to the upside. China’s GDP grew by 6.9% in 2017, higher than the 2016 reading of 6.7%. That being said, China has successful staged a growth recovery last year, synchronized with the rest of the world, despite headwinds from prudential monetary policy, financial tightening as well as supply-side reforms.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey | The CBRT strengthens the stance

By , ,

The Central Bank (CBRT) maintained policy rates unchanged, including the late liquidity window (LLW) at 12.75%, in line with expectations. The Bank reinforced the tight sentiment by adding some “verbal tightening” as observed in our Big-Data sentiment of the statement.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Geo-World: Conflict & Protest - December 2017

By , ,

Middle East continues to be at the heart of geopolitical tensions. The dispute over Jerusalem has intensified once again after the U.S. decided to move its embassy to Jerusalem. Protests erupted in Iran against the regime amid of unfulfilled promises. North Korea faced new sanctions, but some rapprochement between North and South Korea was observed.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Turkey | IP implies strong growth in 4Q

By , ,

IP grew by 7.0% yoy in November (cal. adj.) in line with expectations. After growing 10% in 3Q, yearly IP growth rate in October-November moderated to 7.2%. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 6.8% yoy in December, implying a whole year growth rate slightly above 7% in 2017.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey: The CBRT tightens but lower than expected

By , ,

The CBRT hiked the recent de-facto policy rate (late liquidity window, LLW) by only 50bps to 12.75%, disappointing the market call between 75-100bps and our call of 125bps in the average funding rate. The incoming inflation data will be the key input to know whether the CBRT opted today for a gradualist approach or just a wait-and-see attitude.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

International experiences of De-dollarization: What could be done in the Turkish case?

By , ,

Financial dollarization exposes countries to shocks which can trigger severe financial and economic problems. This note describes a few successful country experiences of de-dollarization. A key lesson is that macroeconomic stability and particularly price stability and low inflation is a pre-condition for starting a successful de-dollarization process.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | Growth moderation continues

By ,

November economic indicators reported today were generally below the previous readings. Meanwhile, the credit figures kept at a relatively high level as the authorities want to maintain market liquidity toward end-year. As anticipated, the economy continued its moderation in Q4 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey: Domestic demand boosts GDP

By , , , ,

The GDP growth rate of 3Q17 surprised on the upside at 11.1% (8.5% both BBVA-GB and consensus), which was supported by the Government’s counter-cyclical measures, favorable base year impact and working day adjustments. This strong figure and an already promising 4Q17 nowcast will lead us to significantly upgrade our already high GDP forecast (6%) to near 7% for 2017.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Country Risk Report. Fourth Quarter 2017

By

Global risk aversion stabilizes at historically low levels. Despite recent geopolitical tensions, all indicators remain virtually unchanged. Continued decline in sovereign CDS over the past year has led many countries to reach new historical lows

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - November 2017 Update

By , , ,

ISIS continues losing territorial control in 2017, while US is increasing its military presence in the region. However, the risk regarding foreign fighters returning their home countries could continue. Saudi Arabia’s political noise and Riyadh-Tehran rift created uncertainties during the month. North Korea’s recent missile test increased tensions.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

How do the EM Central Bank talk? A Big Data approach to the Central Bank of Turkey

Document Number 17/24

By , ,

We apply the natural language processing or computational linguistics (NLP) to the analysis of the communication policy (i.e statements and minutes) of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT). While previous literature has focused on Developed countries, we extend the NLP analysis to the Central Banks of the Emerging Markets using the Dynamic Topic Modelling approach.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey: Inflation path deteriorates further

By , ,

Annual consumer inflation hit 13% mostly due to the sizable pick-up in food inflation and also the jump in both energy and core prices in November. Recent events and rigidity in core prices signal that the range of the CBRT’s expected medium term disinflation path may not to be materialized, thus, monetary policy should be adjusted accordingly.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Big Data Spain 2017: Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data

By ,

BBVA Research presentation in one of the most important analytics conferences in Europe in Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Technologies, IoT, Machine Learning and Digital Transformation.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Global Funds Outlook. Third quarter 2017

By , , ,

Capital continued to flows toward Global Investment Funds (GIF), albeit at a slower pace, driven by common factors (high global liquidity, subdued US interest rates among others). Over the coming quarters, inflows to GIF shall cool down as the unwinding of central bank balance sheets starts draining liquidity. Our baseline scenario assumes a smooth normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - October 2017 Update

By , , ,

The potential increase of tensions between Iran and US and the North Korean crisis are the main hot spots in the month which should be closely monitored. The political uncertainty in Spain after the Catalonian failed independence attempt took up the national and international attention too.

Available in Spanish, English

Spanish banks data
Geostrategy
Digital economy
Financial regulation
Market Comment
Mexico publications
Spain publications
USA publications
Europe publications
Anuari 2017
Working Papers
Multimedia