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China | Growth started to feel the pain of regulatory tightening

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, Chinese economy started to show more signs of moderation in July, in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts to tackle a number of financial vulnerabilities seemingly have transmitted to the real economy.

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China | Will the current RMB appreciation sustainable?

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The strong performance of the RMB exchange rate in recent months has surprised the market, behind which are a confluence of factors: (i) a steep deprecation of US dollar against other major currencies; (ii) the stronger-than-expected growth momentum in China; (iii) the effective implementation of a series of measures aiming to “promote capital inflows and limit outflows”.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - July 2017 Update

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North Korea increased security threats after its two long-range missile tests this month, increasing tensions with US. US approved new sanctions against Russia. As a response, Russia ordered to cut 755 US diplomatic staff and it plans to seize two US diplomatic properties. The Qatar diplomatic rift has been eased off.

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International Comparative of resolution frameworks

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Overview of different resolution frameworks: comparison between Europe, US, Latam and Japan.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - June 2017 Update

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North Korean crisis heated up as a US student has passed away after the end of its captivity and Pyongyang regime continues with the missile tests. The Trump administration is considering further pressure on Chinese efforts to contain the crisis. The fights in Raqqa and Mosul accelerate, but some uncertainties will remain in the Post-War period.

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China | Economic moderation continues

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, Chinese economy continued its moderation in May, reflected in a batch of important activity indicators reported today. Growth moderation is partly due to the authorities’ monetary prudence targeted at shadow banking and the overheating property market. We maintain our growth projection of 6.3% for 2017.

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Country Risk Report. Second Quarter 2017

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Financial tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and sovereign markets spreads have been decreasing for over a year, reaching lows not seen since the spring of 2014 or 2007. Most of the large sovereign spread’s increases seen during the turmoil in 2015 and 2016 in EMs has vanished

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - May 2017 Update

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Tensions surrounding the North Korean nuclear test program remained in the spotlight becoming one of the main US foreign policy concerns. The US announced its support for the Syrian Kurdish in the fight against ISIS. The campaign to seize Raqqa is accelerating. Recent peace talks in Syria as well as the “de-escalation zone” agreement reduced conflict intensity in May.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - April 2017 Update

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Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. China will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue against ISIS. The US supported the YPG's advance in Raqqa.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - March 2017 Update

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After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict levels, while in North Africa, instability rose.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - February 2017 Update

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While ISIS lost ground in Syria and Iraq, Al-Qaeda resumed its offensive operations. Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and Ukraine stabilized after last month’s sharp conflict escalation. Geopolitical tensions in China could intensify as uncertainties regarding the US policy stance in the region remained and North Korea remains testing.

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Country Risk Report. First Quarter 2017

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Yet another quarter in which Financial Tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and Sovereign CDS have all been easing significantly across the board. The overall decrease in CDS spreads reduced downgrade pressures and increased upgrade ones for most countries. The decline in downgrade pressure was specially noticeable in LatAm , but it was also felt in the rest of EMs.

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Ukraine: violence intensified once again in 2017

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Fighting in Eastern Ukraine erupted again, just a day after that the first phone call between Trump and Putin since the US president's inauguration. It was the worst escalation since early 2015. The new US administration's policy stance towards the conflict is still undefined and increases concerns and uncertainties about the conflict evolution and the Russian role on it.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - January 2017 Update

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Pro-regime forces took full control of Aleppo, while ISIS retook Palmyra. Russian military operations intensified during the month. Escalation between Russia and Ukraine. Iraqi security forces recaptured eastern Mosul. Escalation between Russia and Ukraine

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China | On the way to the floating regime: RMB is set to depreciate

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We believe the exchange rate regime of the RMB will ultimately shift to a floating one as other major economies in the world. The floating of the RMB could come in the second half of 2018. Although certain degree of currency overshooting is inevitable, the final floating will help China’s economy restore its external balance and push up the exchange rate in the long run.

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