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Turkey | Still limited moderation in activity

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Industrial production (IP) grew by 9.9% yoy (cal. adj.) in February, keeping the high momentum as the overall increase almost stayed the same at 10.9% yoy in the first two months of the year (vs. 10.7% in 4Q). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 5.7% yoy growth for 1Q (with 44% info), with March data showing a much more clearer moderation.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Protest- March 2018

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Western nations rose up against alleged Russian nerve agent attack in the U.K. and expelled some of Moscow’s diplomats from their soils. In terms of protests, tensions sharply rose in the Middle East. Social unrest also increased in some Eastern European and Latin American countries. Developed countries and Asia remain contained.

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Turkey | Sticky Inflation

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Consumer inflation recorded 0.99% (mom) in March, in line with the market expectation (1%) but higher than ours (0.75%) on the discrepancy due to surprising food inflation.Recent exchange rate depreciation, upward risks on growth and high inertia (backward and forward looking) obviously create upside risks for our year end 9% forecast.

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Turkey | GDP grew 7.4% in 2017

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GDP grew by 7.3% (YoY) in 4Q17 above both the market consensus and our expectation (6.7%). The upward revision of the first three quarters and stronger than expected Q4 resulted in 7.4% yoy growth in 2017 (3.2% in 2016).We maintain our expectation that GDP growth may normalize to 4.5% in 2018 due to tightening financial conditions with some upside risks.

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Turkey | Revised IP series better fits GDP

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IP grew by 12% yoy (cal. adj.) in January (up from 10.7% in 4Q17) above the market consensus of around 7%. IP data is revised with 2015 as the new base year. The new IP portraits a higher correlation (94%) with the new GDP series and a higher growth performance after 2010 (2.5pp on average).

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Turkey | Quarterly Banking & Financial Stability Monitor. March 2018

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The Turkish banking sector experienced a strong credit growth in 2017 due to the macro-prudential polices implemented together with the public incentives and the Credit Guarantee Fund supports. Starting in 4Q 2017, credit growth stabilized as a result of the normalization in credits; and stands at around 19% as of end of February’2018.

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Turkey | The CBRT stays on hold and keeps the tone tight

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The CBRT kept its policy rates unchanged in line with expectations. In our view, the CBRT should stay tight until inflation outlook proves to contain inflation expectations and remain ready to act if inflation deviates further from their latest inflation projection path.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Protest- February 2018

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The President of Russian Federation addressed the Federal Assembly. In the speech, Putin underlined the Russian increasing aspirations to take a lead in global affairs. President Trump had defined Russia as a rival in his State of the Union speech. The security and humanitarian issues in Syria increasingly became one of the top agendas of the leading powers of the world.

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Turkey | Slightly higher than expected inflation

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Consumer prices increased by 0.73% (mom) in February, higher than both our and market expectation (0.6% and 0.5%, respectively). Along with base effects, the overall impact helped annual CPI to fall to only 10.26% from 10.35%. The headline may exercise between 9.5-10% till June and worsen further during summer before falling to around 9% on base effects at the end of 2018.

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Country Risk Quarterly Report. First Quarter 2018

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Following the recent turmoil in equity markets during February, we have observed a decoupling of different Global Risk Aversion (GRA) indicators. Markets seem to be giving much less value to the risk accounted for sovereign ratings. The tightening of sovereign spreads (CDS) is outstanding.

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Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor. February 2018

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Preliminary data signals only a smooth moderation in economic activity at the start of the year. Base effects on inflation started to help in January. The Central Bank remains tight, while fiscal policy stays accommodative on continuing high expenditures and recently announced incentives

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Turkey | Activity beats expectations in 4Q17

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Industrial production (IP) grew by 8.7% yoy (cal. adj.) in December 2017 above the market call of near 7%. Hence, the moderation in IP proved to be limited with 7.8% annual growth in 4Q after 10.2% growth in 3Q. We maintain our 2017 GDP growth estimate at 7% with risks on the upside while the economy may moderate towards near 4.5% in 2018.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Protest - January 2018

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President Trump gave his first State of the Union speech in the Congress to highlight his administration’s policies. Rivalry between Washington and Russia/China and the intention to contain Iran and North Korea have been revealed once again in his remarks. Europe remained calm, while some hot spots were observed in Latin America and Asia.

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Turkey | Inflation fell on base effects as expected

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Consumer prices increased by 1.02% (mom) in January, higher than our forecast (0.75%) but lower than the market call (1.3%). Annual consumer inflation fell to 10.35% from 11.92% thanks to favorable base effects mostly on food. We expect the headline to ease slightly below 10% by end 1Q but then show some volatility before falling to around 9% at the end of the year.

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