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China | ODI from the Middle Kingdom: What’s next after the big turnaround?

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China’s ODI saw a big turnaround as its strong growth momentum in 2016 came to a halt last year due to the authorities’ restrictive measures to curb capital outflows. We use a deal-based database by CGTI to detect where China’s ODI goes. Despite uncertain global political and economic environment, outbound investment by Chinese firms is likely to rise over the long term.

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China | A sharp drop of trade surplus and continuously increasing foreign reserve

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The authorities have released trade data today and foreign reverses data yesterday, pointing to a mixing picture of the country’s external balance amid global uncertainties. On the trade front, imports significantly rocketed to 36.9% in terms of USD, narrowing trade balance significantly. On the other hand, foreign reserve has increased in 12 consecutive months.

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China | Vulnerability sentiment resumed upward trend in 2018

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index resumed its upward trend in 2018, underpinned by a stronger GDP and on-going efforts to curb financial risks. Housing vulnerability index has seen significant improvement, SOE index rebounded somewhat despite deteriorating earlier. Shadow banking vulnerability index stabilized while Exchange rate index declined on RMB appreciation.

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China Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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The Q4 GDP growth came at 6.8% y/y, marginally surprised the market to the upside. China’s GDP grew by 6.9% in 2017, higher than the 2016 reading of 6.7%. That being said, China has successful staged a growth recovery last year, synchronized with the rest of the world, despite headwinds from prudential monetary policy, financial tightening as well as supply-side reforms.

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China | One Belt One Road – What’s in it for Latin America?

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In this watch, we examine China-Latin America economic ties and explore ways to deepen integration between the two under the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative. Our analysis also includes the use of Big Data to measure media coverage and sentiment on news related to OBOR and Chinese infrastructure investments in Latin America.

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China | A soft-landing in 2017

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December indicators reported today, together with Q4 GDP outturns, marginally exceeded market expectations. For 2017, China’s economy achieved a soft-landing synchronized with the rest of the world. Looking ahead, the economy is expected to continue its moderation as the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to rein in shadow banking activities are set to weigh on growth.

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China | The changing role of RRR in new monetary policy framework

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The recent two unconventional RRR cuts suggest the authorities set out to dethrone RRR from a monetary loosening or tightening tool. Instead, the PBoC now uses RRR cuts for liquidity management purpose. As monetary policy framework is migrating to a “corridor system”, the traditional quantitative tools adjustments have to give their way to new price tools.

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China | From great miracle to great moderation: potential GDP estimation of China

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In the recently concluded 19th Party’s National Congress, the authorities have come up with a two-stage development plan. Using traditional Cobb-Douglas production function to gauge China’s potential GDP, we found China’s per capita GDP can increase to USD 21,000 (constant price of today) by 2035, in line with the authorities’ target of achieving “social modernization”.

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China | Vulnerability sentiment ends 2017 on a high note

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) ended 2017 on a high note, extending previous gains, underpinned by the shift in policy focus towards quality of growth, PBOC’s prudent monetary policy stance, a stable yuan and ongoing efforts to curb risks to financial stability emanating from housing, SOE and the shadow banking sector.

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China | Growth moderation continues

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November economic indicators reported today were generally below the previous readings. Meanwhile, the credit figures kept at a relatively high level as the authorities want to maintain market liquidity toward end-year. As anticipated, the economy continued its moderation in Q4 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives.

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China | Vulnerability sentiment plateaus in November

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) held steady in November, remaining well within the positive territory although softer compared to its peak achieved during the 19th Chinese Party Congress. The past month saw authorities intensify efforts to curb risks to financial stability emanating from shadow banking, housing market and the SOEs.

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China’s role in Latin America: Participation & Consequences

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This presentation touches various issues: evolution of bilateral trade and investment, LatAm’s export dependency on China, China’s OFDI and financial influence in LatAm and existing critiques on China’s role in LatAms and new opportunities.

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Tracking China Vulnerability in Real Time Using Big Data: The CVSI Index

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We have developed a China Vulnerability Sentiment Index using Big Data. The CVSI index allows us to track the 4 different vulnerability components: SOEs, Shadow Banking, Housing Bubble & FX speculative.

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Geographies:China

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China | October indicators suggest growth moderation continues

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October economic indicators announced today, together with the credit figures released yesterday, were all below the previous readings and the market consensus. As we predicted, the economy continued its moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include prudent monetary policy and regulatory tightening as well as the supply-side reform.

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China | China opens financial sector to more foreign ownership

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China has taken a major step toward the long-awaited opening of its financial market. On last Friday, unveiled at a government briefing, Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said China will remove foreign ownership limits on banks while allowing overseas firms to take majority stakes in local securities ventures, fund managers and life insurance companies.

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