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China’s role in Latin America: Participation & Consequences

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This presentation touches various issues: evolution of bilateral trade and investment, LatAm’s export dependency on China, China’s OFDI and financial influence in LatAm and existing critiques on China’s role in LatAms and new opportunities.

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Tracking China Vulnerability in Real Time Using Big Data: The CVSI Index

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We have developed a China Vulnerability Sentiment Index using Big Data. The CVSI index allows us to track the 4 different vulnerability components: SOEs, Shadow Banking, Housing Bubble & FX speculative.

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Geographies:China

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China | October indicators suggest growth moderation continues

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October economic indicators announced today, together with the credit figures released yesterday, were all below the previous readings and the market consensus. As we predicted, the economy continued its moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include prudent monetary policy and regulatory tightening as well as the supply-side reform.

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China | One Belt One Road – progress and prospects

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The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative provides an overarching framework for China to achieve its economic and strategic ambitions. China’s large industrial overcapacity, surplus capital and efforts to secure resources complement the need to address infrastructure and funding constraints in OBOR countries. That said, challenges faced by OBOR initiative are significant.

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China: Vulnerability sentiment extends gains in October

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) notched its fourth straight month of improvement in October, reflecting favourable policy mix, marked by accommodative fiscal policy to stabilise growth and prudent monetary and regulatory measures to curb financial fragility risks. China’s focus on quality of growth at 19th Party Congress bodes well for CVSI going forward.

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China | Policy-led growth moderation coupled with mitigated financial risks

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China’s Q3 GDP growth declined to 6.8% from its 6.9% y/y reading in 1H. It suggests that after registering a stronger-than-expected growth in 1H, the economy showed more signs of moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include the continuing prudent monetary policy and the regulatory tightening on shadow banking and property market.

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China Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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China's economy showed signs of moderation in the third quarter due to a number of policy initiatives .To reflect the strong 1H growth and mitigated risks, we raise our 2017 growth forecast to 6.7%. Looking ahead, the dynamic of China’s economy will highly depend on the authorities’ attitudes towards the balance between pursuing growth and maintaining financial stability.

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China: Vulnerability sentiment stays upbeat in September

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) for September held on to its recent gains with regulators focusing on maintaining macro-financial stability ahead of the crucial 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress (CCP). Activity moderation extended in August, led by policy efforts to reduce overcapacity, curb leverage and reduce housing inventory.

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China | Economy continued the downward adjustment in August

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of this year, Chinese economy continued its downward adjustment in August following its slowdown in July, which is in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts started to transmit to the real economy for the recent two months.

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China | Early fruits of corporate deleveraging add to growth resilience

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The total debt level of China’s corporate sector remain a great concern. However, some firm-level indicators have shown improvement in the indebtedness of non-SOEs. The early fruits of corporate deleveraging have reinforced our confidence in China’s economic prospect, but there is still a long way to cover before declaring a decisive victory of the deleveraging campaign.

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China | Vulnerability sentiment improves in August

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved in August, underpinned by gains in the SOE, Housing and Shadow banking component while FX speculative pressures persist despite slowing capital outflows.

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China | Taming China’s shadow banking sector

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China’s shadow banking sector evolved rapidly over the past few years as regulators and financial institutions played a “Whack-A-Mole” game. It occurs in the context of China’s ongoing financial liberalization. Our empirical analysis indicates that the current financial deleveraging and regulation tightening will drag on growth but the impact should be limited.

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China | Growth started to feel the pain of regulatory tightening

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, Chinese economy started to show more signs of moderation in July, in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts to tackle a number of financial vulnerabilities seemingly have transmitted to the real economy.

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China | Will the current RMB appreciation sustainable?

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The strong performance of the RMB exchange rate in recent months has surprised the market, behind which are a confluence of factors: (i) a steep deprecation of US dollar against other major currencies; (ii) the stronger-than-expected growth momentum in China; (iii) the effective implementation of a series of measures aiming to “promote capital inflows and limit outflows”.

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China: Vulnerability sentiment boosted by solid economic recovery &clarified policy stance

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved remarkably in July, in particular led by both SOE and Shadow Banking components. Meanwhile, the components of the Exchange Rate and Housing Vulnerability Index also rebounded from the previous low levels, now staying within the neighbourhood of natural level.

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