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India | Q2 GDP growth slows as investments dip

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India’s Q2 2016 real GDP registered slower growth at 7.1% y/y from 7.9% in 1Q16, weighed by protracted investment weakness, which offset robust consumption demand. With the recent pickup in inflation expected to be transient, and India's reform momentum gaining traction, we foresee room for a final 25 bps rate cut by the RBI when inflation abates towards the end of 2016.

Units:
Geographies:Asia India

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U.S. | The energy mix: a balancing act

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Natural gas is a vehicle towards renewables, but LNG supply shortfall to emerge in next decade. Policies such as Clean Power Plan accelerate growth of wind and solar. Shale still has key role as link between storage and long-term projects.

Available in Spanish, English

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India | Robust Q1 GDP dims further rate cut hope

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The Indian economy grew at a robust 7.9% y/y rate in Q1 2016, beating expectations, as strong private consumption offset negative investment contribution. In the wake of an improving but unbalanced growth recovery, RBI will likely adopt a wait and watch policy approach, characterized by a status quo on June 7th while leaving room for a final 25 bps rate cut later in 2016.

Units:
Geographies:India Asia

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Philippines | Is Duterte ready to clear high bar?

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Philippines President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has a high bar to clear as he takes on the reform mantle from Benigno Aquino III, who was instrumental in delivering impressive economic performance despite a tough external environment. In this watch, we examine the state of Philippines economy so as to ascertain key macroeconomic challenges facing the new administration.

Units:
Geographies:Asia China India

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Oil impact on Asia’s structural current accounts

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In this watch, we decompose the current account balances of emerging market Asian economies into cyclical and structural components to examine the oil price impact on Asia’s structural current accounts.

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ASIA | Equity-for-Debt Swap – A Pareto-Optimal solution to China’s banking sector woes?

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With China’s banking sector facing rising asset quality concerns, policymakers recently announced an Equity-for-Debt Swap (EDS) program, aiming to reduce commercial banks' stressed assets. In this watch, we draw upon other countries' experiences to highlight key issues that Chinese policymakers should address for ensuring effective implementation of its new EDS program.

Units:
Geographies:Asia China India

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ASIA | Tackling China’s currency woes – Policy references from India

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In this watch, we focus on concerns surrounding China’s currency woes, which have often unnerved investors in the recent past, while triggering capital flight. We examine whether past measures adopted by Indian policymakers to stem similar risks can be considered by China as a point of reference in its domestic policy toolkit.

Units:
Geographies:Asia China India

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RBI cuts 25 bps, lifts liquidity; expect to cut more

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The Reserve Bank of India today cut its benchmark repo rate by 25 bps to 6.5%, in line with expectations; and positively surprised by boosting and streamlining liquidity in the Indian banking system. Looking ahead, we think RBI’s rate cutting cycle isn’t over yet with a one last 25 bps rate cut expected at its next meeting on June 7th.

Units:
Geographies:Asia India

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ASIA | Gauging the impact of China’s growth slowdown on emerging Asia

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Concerns that economic deceleration in China could be sharper and more disorderly than expected have unnerved investors over its spill-over effects on growth and financial stability in emerging Asia. In this watch, we gauge the impact of China’s transition on emerging Asia amid on-going issues surrounding China slowdown, Yuan depreciation and financial market volatility.

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Geographies:Asia China India

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India | FY17 Budget – A tight balancing act

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India’s FY17 (year ending March 2017) Union Budget reiterated its commitment towards quality fiscal consolidation by aiming to reduce its fiscal deficit to 3.5% from 3.9% of GDP in FY16. The budget rightly focuses on measures to boost a weak rural economy and a step up in productive public spending but is less forthcoming on implementation of crucial structural reforms.

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Geographies:Asia India

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India | December CPI inflation extends gains, RBI likely to stay on hold in Feb

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India’s December 2015 CPI inflation outturn extended recent gains since hitting an 8 month low last August; which consequently limits room for the RBI to exercise interest rate cuts later this year.

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Geographies:India Asia

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India | Q3 2015 GDP growth picks up, RBI pauses

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India’s Q3 2015 real GDP registered stronger than expected growth, rising 7.4% y/y compared to 7.0% in 2Q15. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India kept benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.75% in today’s credit policy, in line with expectations. We peg India’s GDP growth at 7.3% y/y in 2015 and 7.7% y/y in 2016; and believe that RBI's rate cutting cycle is not over yet.

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Geographies:Asia India

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India | RBI eases interest rates by 50 bps, steps up financial market reforms

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The Reserve Bank of India today surprised positively by cutting the benchmark repo rate by 50 bps to 6.75%. The decision was accompanied by a series of financial reform measures including a clear medium term framework for foreign portfolio investment limits in debt securities. RBI’s rate cutting cycle is not yet over although a status quo is likely at its next meeting.

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Geographies:India Asia

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India’s Q2 GDP moderates but details encourage

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India’s Q2 2015 real GDP growth fell short of expectations, easing to 7.0% y/y from 7.5% in Q1. However, excluding net indirect taxes, GDP growth picked up to 7.1% y/y from 6.1% in Q1. Amid the ongoing global financial turmoil, India’s macro fundamentals are amongst the strongest in the region, although stalled progress on key legislative reforms can unnerve investors.

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Geographies:Asia India

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India | Banking sector dragging down or driving up India's growth story?

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In this watch, we examine key issues facing India's banking sector, their impact on banks' ability to support India's growth up-cycle, the effectiveness of recent policy measures to tackle banks’ inherent problems; and put forth policy recommendations.

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Geographies:Asia India

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