alert_servicealert_serviceENTER user_add user_add NEW USER

Forgot your password?


Stay logged in to leave
Publication date
From
To
x

Your space


Forgot your password?
x

Login to participate



Not registered yet? Register now
x
Make your search by entering the text:
Make your search for other criteria:
Catalog Icon

Turkey | Activity beats expectations in 4Q17

By ,

Industrial production (IP) grew by 8.7% yoy (cal. adj.) in December 2017 above the market call of near 7%. Hence, the moderation in IP proved to be limited with 7.8% annual growth in 4Q after 10.2% growth in 3Q. We maintain our 2017 GDP growth estimate at 7% with risks on the upside while the economy may moderate towards near 4.5% in 2018.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey | Inflation fell on base effects as expected

By ,

Consumer prices increased by 1.02% (mom) in January, higher than our forecast (0.75%) but lower than the market call (1.3%). Annual consumer inflation fell to 10.35% from 11.92% thanks to favorable base effects mostly on food. We expect the headline to ease slightly below 10% by end 1Q but then show some volatility before falling to around 9% at the end of the year.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

The policy impulse and the resilience of the economy resulted in strong growth dynamics. Inflation will remain high during most of the year on inertia, robust domestic demand and lagged effects of exchange rate depreciation. The CBRT will maintain the tight stance, while fiscal policy will likely remain accommodative in 2018.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey | The CBRT strengthens the stance

By , ,

The Central Bank (CBRT) maintained policy rates unchanged, including the late liquidity window (LLW) at 12.75%, in line with expectations. The Bank reinforced the tight sentiment by adding some “verbal tightening” as observed in our Big-Data sentiment of the statement.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey | IP implies strong growth in 4Q

By , ,

IP grew by 7.0% yoy in November (cal. adj.) in line with expectations. After growing 10% in 3Q, yearly IP growth rate in October-November moderated to 7.2%. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 6.8% yoy in December, implying a whole year growth rate slightly above 7% in 2017.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey | Another pick-up in core inflation

By ,

Consumer prices increased by 0.69% (mom) in December 2017, higher than median market expectation and BBVA-GB forecast (both 0.5%). We expect the headline to ease towards slightly below 10% by the end of 1Q and stay close to these levels until 4Q before falling to around 9% at the end of the year.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey: The CBRT tightens but lower than expected

By , ,

The CBRT hiked the recent de-facto policy rate (late liquidity window, LLW) by only 50bps to 12.75%, disappointing the market call between 75-100bps and our call of 125bps in the average funding rate. The incoming inflation data will be the key input to know whether the CBRT opted today for a gradualist approach or just a wait-and-see attitude.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

International experiences of De-dollarization: What could be done in the Turkish case?

By , ,

Financial dollarization exposes countries to shocks which can trigger severe financial and economic problems. This note describes a few successful country experiences of de-dollarization. A key lesson is that macroeconomic stability and particularly price stability and low inflation is a pre-condition for starting a successful de-dollarization process.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey: Domestic demand boosts GDP

By , , , ,

The GDP growth rate of 3Q17 surprised on the upside at 11.1% (8.5% both BBVA-GB and consensus), which was supported by the Government’s counter-cyclical measures, favorable base year impact and working day adjustments. This strong figure and an already promising 4Q17 nowcast will lead us to significantly upgrade our already high GDP forecast (6%) to near 7% for 2017.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

How do the EM Central Bank talk? A Big Data approach to the Central Bank of Turkey

Document Number 17/24

By , ,

We apply the natural language processing or computational linguistics (NLP) to the analysis of the communication policy (i.e statements and minutes) of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT). While previous literature has focused on Developed countries, we extend the NLP analysis to the Central Banks of the Emerging Markets using the Dynamic Topic Modelling approach.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey: Inflation path deteriorates further

By , ,

Annual consumer inflation hit 13% mostly due to the sizable pick-up in food inflation and also the jump in both energy and core prices in November. Recent events and rigidity in core prices signal that the range of the CBRT’s expected medium term disinflation path may not to be materialized, thus, monetary policy should be adjusted accordingly.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey: The Central Bank of Turkey designs a mechanism to mitigate FX volatility

By , , , ,

The CBRT announced yesterday they will start to auction foreign exchange (FX) hedging instruments to enhance tools to manage corporates’ currency risk. We elaborate the main goal of the new tool as to reduce the Turkish lira volatility by both enhancing liquidity and increasing financial depth in the currency market.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey: IP Confirms Robust Activity in 3Q

By , , ,

Industrial production growth was up to 10%, from 2Q’s 4.6%. Adding up to the previous year’s contraction our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 7.9% yoy (94% info) growth for 3Q. Our models suggest strong growth pattern in for the beginning of 4Q as well, in line with our 6% 2017 GDP growth forecast but with risks that could be on the upside.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Inflation: Further Worsening over Core Prices

By ,

Consumer prices increased by 2.08% (mom) in October, higher than the consensus (1.7%) and our forecast (1.9%). Annual consumer inflation jumped up to 11.9% from 11.2% on still worsening core inflation and renewed pick-up in energy prices.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | One Belt One Road – progress and prospects

By ,

The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative provides an overarching framework for China to achieve its economic and strategic ambitions. China’s large industrial overcapacity, surplus capital and efforts to secure resources complement the need to address infrastructure and funding constraints in OBOR countries. That said, challenges faced by OBOR initiative are significant.

Available in English

FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL NETWORKS
Spanish banks data
Geostrategy
Digital economy
Financial regulation
Market Comment
Mexico publications
Spain publications
USA publications
Europe publications
Anuari 2017
Working Papers
Multimedia