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Paraguay Economic Outlook 2017

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The Paraguayan economy will grow 3.7% this year and 3.5% in 2018. Thus, it will remain as one of the fastest-growing economies in the region. The forecast for the next year is conditioned on a positive external environment and on the dynamism of the pubic investment. Mid-term challenges remain in place and need to be tackle to reassure a strong and less volatile GDP growth

Units:

Available in Spanish, English

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China’s role in Latin America: Participation & Consequences

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This presentation touches various issues: evolution of bilateral trade and investment, LatAm’s export dependency on China, China’s OFDI and financial influence in LatAm and existing critiques on China’s role in LatAms and new opportunities.

Available in English

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Uruguay Economic Outlook. Second half 2017

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Uruguay will growth 3.2% this year. There will be the second fastest growing country in the region. We project a current account result of just 0.3% of GDP for 2018. We estimate that the dollar will end this year at $ 29.5 and $ 31.4 at the end of 2018. We have adjusted our estimate of inflation to 6.3% yoy and 7.0% yoy for 2017 and 2018 respectively

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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The economic outlook is improving in the second half of the year. The Peruvian economy will grow at around 2.5% yoy in the second half of the year (and at around the same rate for 2017 as a whole), with increased support from domestic demand. For next year, GDP will grow at close to 4% yoy. This forecast is subject to the fiscal stimulus.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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The Colombian economy shows a better behavior from the third quarter leaving the deceleration cycle behind. For 2018 most sectors will contribute to the acceleration of the economy thanks to a stronger internal demand and a recovery in external demand.

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Growth is accelerating and becoming more widespread, in line with our 2.8% forecast for 2017. Inflation is slowing but less than required to meet the targets of the Central Bank, which will maintain its tight stance on monetary policy. A positive result in the parliamentary elections will enable the government to make faster progress in the reform agenda

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Growth recovers in Latin America, but will still be low in 2017-18. Growth is revised up 0.3pp in 2017 to 1.1% and remains unchanged at 1.6% in 2018. Growth in 2018 will be driven by the external sector and infrastructure investment in Argentina, Colombia and Peru.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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The economic outlook is improving in the second half of the year. The Peruvian economy will grow at around 2.5% yoy in the second half of the year (and at around the same rate for 2017 as a whole), with increased support from domestic demand. For next year, GDP will grow at close to 4% yoy. This forecast is subject to the fiscal stimulus.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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We continue to expect the Brazilian economy to grow by 0.6% this year and by 1.5% in the next one. While recent data suggest that the recovery could be somewhat stronger than expected, the fiscal situation and political noise prevent further optimism about growth.

Available in Spanish, English

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Exposure of international banks to Latin America

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In the context of a reduction in global cross-border funds, this report explores the recent evolution of international banks’ exposures to Latin America using BIS statistics. Latin America is one of the few regions in the world where the exposure of international banks continued to increase as result of the strong presence of international banks with local operations.

Available in Spanish

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International Comparative of resolution frameworks

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Overview of different resolution frameworks: comparison between Europe, US, Latam and Japan.

Available in English

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Latin America Economic Watch: Urbanization

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Urbanization took place earlier and at faster pace than in other emerging markets in Latam and is now at advanced economies’ levels. However, in spite of displaying high urbanization rates, Latin America show relatively low levels of income, capital, labor and productivity. The region should try to leverage on their high urbanization levels to boost digitization.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

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The Colombian economy responded positively to the oil Price shock maintaining positive growth. Nonetheless the recovery will be slow given the limited sources of growth. Inflation should continue its descending path in 2018 reaching the target range and there will be space for the Central Bank to continue reducing its reference interest rate.

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Risks detected in our previous report have materialised, and we have therefore revised our projection for this year down to 1.3%, but we maintain an increase by 2.4% in 2018. Increasing slack in the economy and the strength of the peso lead us to estimate an end-of-period inflation by 2.6% YoY, with a downward bias, and 2.8% YoY for 2018.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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The Colombian road infrastructure: Where are we and where are we going in 4G?

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4G projects have demanded an overall significant effort. At the moment, 23 of the 32 4G projects have an ANI’s contractual financial closure and only 8 of them have a definitive one. Our scenario includes an execution which is slower than what the Government expects but that is still supporting GDP growth, especially in 2019. Challenges remain to be overcome.

Available in Spanish, English

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