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Argentina Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

By , , , ,

The economy will grow 3.3% in each of the next 2 years driven by investment and increased external demand, particularly from Brazil and China. Inflation will continue to fall slowly but convergence to the goals will remain a challenge for the Central Bank. It is key to monitor the evolution of the twin deficits (fiscal and external).

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Growth is accelerating and becoming more widespread, in line with our 2.8% forecast for 2017. Inflation is slowing but less than required to meet the targets of the Central Bank, which will maintain its tight stance on monetary policy. A positive result in the parliamentary elections will enable the government to make faster progress in the reform agenda

Available in Spanish, English

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Exposure of international banks to Latin America

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In the context of a reduction in global cross-border funds, this report explores the recent evolution of international banks’ exposures to Latin America using BIS statistics. Latin America is one of the few regions in the world where the exposure of international banks continued to increase as result of the strong presence of international banks with local operations.

Available in Spanish

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

By , , , ,

The Argentine economy entered its third consecutive quarter of recovery. Growth forecasts of 2.8% for 2017 and 3% for 2018. Gradually decreasing trend in core inflation will be maintained in the coming months. Inflation as measured by INDEC's GBA CPI will reach 19.5% y/y at the end of 2017, still above the BCRA’s target of 12-17% YoY

Available in Spanish, English

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Renewables: The answer is blowin’ in the wind

By , , , , , , , , , , ,

The prevalence of fossil fuels in the production of electricity is being challenged by the rapid expansion of renewable sources such as wind and solar. Around the world, wind energy capacity has increased fivefold since 2007, reaching 487GW in 2016

Available in Spanish, English

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An Index of Regulatory Practices for Financial Inclusion in Latin America

Document Number 17/15

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The index assesses and compares the quality of regulations that influence financial inclusion in 8 Latin American countries. It defines three categories of regulatory practices: the enablers, which determine the overall quality of the financial environment; the promoters, which deal with specific market frictions; and the preventers which create distortions and barriers.

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

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The economy continued to grow in 1Q17 in line with our forecast of 2.8% Y/Y. Inflation is moving away from the BCRA target and will reach 19.5% (INDEC) Y/Y in December, driven by tariffs and core inflation that does not yield. The restrictive monetary and accommodative fiscal policy mix strengthens the peso, but we expect a greater pace of depreciation in 2H17

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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The economy began to recover in 4Q16 and will grow 2.8% in 2017 driven by investment. The downward stickiness of core inflation and the increase in tariffs will keep inflation at 20.8% YoY in 2017, and the CB in a tight stance. 2017 financial needs at USD 40 billion to be covered by debt issues will result in capital inflows and tend to appreciate the real exchange rate

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Inclusion in Argentina

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An overall view. Argentina step by step. Regulation for financial inclusion.

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016

By , , , , ,

The economic recovery is being delayed and GDP will fall 2% in 2016, but then grow 3.2% in 2017. Positive signs of the slowing of inflation as a result of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. The fiscal deficit in 2017 will be similar to 2016 and will be financed with more debt. The real exchange rate tends to appreciate due to increased foreign exchange earnings

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina: Digital Context

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Argentina has room for improving in terms of the Digitization Index, particularly ICT regulation and Internet use in enterprises. Argentina’s Internet use is close to that of developed countries, with a high frequency of use.

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina | Hydrocarbons Sector facing the challenge of recovering production and reserves

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Argentina requires to recover oil and gas production and reserves after years of declining investment and a context of lower international prices. The new government started to deregulate the sector, giving more autonomy to the province administrations and correcting distorted price signals, but there are still significant challenges to reach self-sufficiency.

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina | Electrical Energy Sector

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The lack of readjustment of energy tariffs since 2000's led to a deep deterioration of the electric sector infrastructure. During last decade, the generation of electrical energy depended mainly on thermal power stations.

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook Third Quarter 2016

By , , , ,

Argentina's GDP will fall 1% this year, but the impact of changing economic policies will be evident in 2017 with growth of 3.2% annually. Inflation is falling more slowly than expected. Gradual devaluation of the peso in 2H16 due to seasonal factors and the cut in interest rates, although the Central Bank will deal swiftly with any sudden movements

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2016

By , , , ,

Argentina came out of default in May following rapid progress on the new government’s programme of reforms. The economy will contract by 0.4% in 2016 but will start growing again by more than 3% a year from 2017 on. The government is focusing on monetary policy, but inflation will not start to fall until the second half of 2016

Available in Spanish, English

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