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Brazil Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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The economy has recovered faster than expected in 2017. Taking this and the improvements in the global environment into account, we revised our growth forecasts upwards. We expect that, after growing 1.0% in 2017, GDP will grow 2.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. However, the materialization of political and fiscal risks could bring the recovery process to an end.

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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We continue to expect the Brazilian economy to grow by 0.6% this year and by 1.5% in the next one. While recent data suggest that the recovery could be somewhat stronger than expected, the fiscal situation and political noise prevent further optimism about growth.

Available in Spanish, English

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Exposure of international banks to Latin America

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In the context of a reduction in global cross-border funds, this report explores the recent evolution of international banks’ exposures to Latin America using BIS statistics. Latin America is one of the few regions in the world where the exposure of international banks continued to increase as result of the strong presence of international banks with local operations.

Available in Spanish

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Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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We revised down our GDP forecasts to 0.6% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018, largely due to the upsurge of political tensions. Nevertheless, the economy will likely continue to recover, leaving behind the recession. Among other factors, the recovery will be driven by monetary policy, whose expansive tone will contrast with fiscal policy’s restrictive tone.

Available in Spanish, English

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Renewables: The answer is blowin’ in the wind

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The prevalence of fossil fuels in the production of electricity is being challenged by the rapid expansion of renewable sources such as wind and solar. Around the world, wind energy capacity has increased fivefold since 2007, reaching 487GW in 2016

Available in Spanish, English

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An Index of Regulatory Practices for Financial Inclusion in Latin America

Document Number 17/15

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The index assesses and compares the quality of regulations that influence financial inclusion in 8 Latin American countries. It defines three categories of regulatory practices: the enablers, which determine the overall quality of the financial environment; the promoters, which deal with specific market frictions; and the preventers which create distortions and barriers.

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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Activity indicators suggest that the economy started to grow again in 1Q17 after having contracted for eight consecutive quarters. We expect GDP to grow by 0.9% in 2017 and by 1.8% in 2018. The approval of a social security reform would allow the government to adjust public expenditure and meet the new fiscal rule, and therefore to consolidate the prospects of recovery.

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation "Brazil Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017"

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After having fallen by more than 7% over the past two years, we expect GDP to grow by 0.9% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018. The approval of a fiscal reform, lower inflation, declining interest rates, among other reasons, should pave the way for a gradual recovery. However, political tensions and failing to approve the needed social security reform could derail growth.

Geographies:Brazil

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation "Brazil Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016″

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We continue to expect Brazil’s GDP to contract by 3.0% in 2016 and then grow 0.9% in 2017. While recent data show that the risks for growth in 2016 are tilted to the downside, the approval of the project to impose a cap on fiscal expenditure could trigger a faster-than-expected recovery from 2017 on.

Available in Spanish, English

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Brazil: Digital Context

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In terms of digital context, Brazil has a better position than other Latin American countries such as Colombia, Mexico and Peru, especially for individual usage. Brazil stands out among its neighbours in terms of new firm creation, with a similar level to Spain.

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation "Brazil Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016″

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The worst in terms of activity growth is probably already over, but the cyclical recovery will be slow as structural factors (such as fiscal deterioration) will continue to weigh negatively. We continue to expect GDP to grow by 0.9% in 2017 after having contracted 3.8% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016.

Available in Spanish, English

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LatAm Daily | The monetary policy rate in Colombia was increased by 25bps, as expected

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BanRep took the repo rate up to 7.75% and GDP for 2016 was revised down from 2.5% to 2.3%. June’s unemployment rose in Colombia (to 10.2%) and in Chile (to 6.9%). Also in Chile, activity data by sectors signals that activity growth will be under 1% YoY in June. In Brazil, the primary deficit worsened, reaching 1.1% of GDP in June, and we forecast 2.7% for the end of 2016.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | Monetary policy rate in Colombia to increase by 25bps today

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We expect the BanRep to increase its MPR to 7.75%. Also, we expect the unemployment rate to have increased by 9.2%. In Mexico, we expect a more deteriorated preliminary GDP growth for 2Q16: 2.1% YoY / -0.1% QoQ. In Chile, the minutes of the last MP meeting will be released, as will unemployment figures (we expect an increase of 6.9%) and activity data by sector for June.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | Credit markets continue to slow down in Brazil

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Credit stock grew only 1.0% YoY, a negative rate in real terms as inflation in the period stood at 8.8% YoY. The further moderation of credit markets in the period supports our view that economic activity remains weak and that a further GDP contraction in 2Q16 is the most likely outcome.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | The growth in economic activity in Mexico was higher than expected in May

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IGAE grew by 1.0% sa m/m, thanks to the services sector (1.2% m/m, sa). A small (even slightly negative) growth in economic activity is expected for Mexico in 2Q16. In Brazil, the minutes of last week’s MP meeting showed concerns about inflation, which still prevent a cut of the Selic rate. Also in Brazil, the CA deficit remained stable at around 1.7% of GDP in June.

Available in English

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