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Chile Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

By , , ,

We are continuing to forecast growth of 1.6% this year, although risks are tilted to the downside. Inflation will continue to fluctuate below 3% yoy for most of the year. Our baseline scenario envisages a depreciation of the peso. The monetary policy rate will be around 2.5% at the end of the first semester and we estimate a growth in public spending by 4%.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

By , , ,

Growth projection for 2017 has been corrected to 1.6% in view of the weakness observed at the beginning of the year. The exchange rate is close to intervention level. Limited inflationary pressures are confirmed, which creates room for cuts in the monetary policy rate to 2.5%. The medium-term fiscal situation is becoming more complex and will require an adjustment.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | Fundamentals of the Chilean Economy

By , , ,

The aim of this presentation goes beyond the short-run economic outlook with relevant data on different dimensions of the Chilean economy. It seeks to provide information to frequent questions from both foreign and domestic investors.

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in English

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Chile Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016

By , , ,

We are maintaining our growth projections for 2016-17. Inflation would end the year close to the Central Bank’s target and to fluctuate below 3% in 2017. We are projecting at least two cuts in the Monetary Policy Rate by 1Q17. Cuts in the Monetary Policy Rate are needed in order to bring about a more competitive exchange rate and to anchor inflation.

Units:
Geographies:Chile Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

By , , , ,

We adjusted downwards our GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 1.8%, following the materialisation of external and internal risks. Currency appreciation has been excessive, making recovery difficult and with a potential risk of generating significant disinflationary pressures. We foresee two cuts in the MPR in the next 12 months. The first would occur in 4Q16.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Analyzing the impact of monetary policy on financial markets in Chile

Document Number 16/14

By , ,

During the past few years, monetary policy communication has become a hot topic in as far as it seems to have become a very relevant way for central banks to guide markets, beyond actual monetary policy decisions.

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Chile | Public spending slows down in June but is going to play a major role in 2H16

By , , ,

Public spending grew by 1.7% in June and is expected to grow by 4.6% during the 2H16. This increase in spending would support internal demand and go in line with the budgeted 4.2% fiscal expansion for this year. Meanwhile, incomes are still weak due to the slow dynamics in internal demand and the low price of copper.

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish

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Chile | Service Exports: great potential with need of investment

By ,

The leaders of service exports around the world are Europeans and Asians, while South Americans represents a small portion of the world commerce with Chile loosing participation over the last few years. Australia and Canada are the best examples on how Chile could increase their service exports; specifically Chile has great potential in the tourism industry.

Available in Spanish

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Chile | Fiscal spending accelerates in May. TR would avoid a worse fiscal deficit

By , ,

Public spending increased by 8.4% YoY in May with a surge in public investment. Meanwhile, mining incomes and VAT suffer a strong decline, however, TR revenues compensates for the losses. To comply with the yearly goal spending growth will require moderation in 2H16, as a result, reducing its contribution on aggregate demand.

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish

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Chile: Digital context

By ,

Chile’s digital status is similar to some developed countries, such as Spain and Luxembourg. Increasing number of people are using internet and with higher frequency. Mobile devices are gaining momentum to access internet. High cost is the main barrier to access internet for the 48% of households without internet, particularly for younger ones.

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | An attractive country for Latin-American migration

By , , , ,

Immigration in Chile has been rising during recent years and now they represent more than 2% of overall population. For 2015, estimates pointed to half million immigrants, mainly from South America in both stock and flow measures, while recent figures show an increasing wave of immigration coming from Central America.

Units:
Geographies:Chile
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish

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Chile | Fiscal revenues declined during April while public expenditure accelerates

By , ,

In April, fiscal expenditure accelerated to7.6% YoY, mainly driven by government consumption. Meanwhile, fiscal revenues declined by 13.5% YoY, driven mainly by lower tax collection from mining. Hence, the effective fiscal balance reached the figure of 1.2% of GDP, a figure not seen since 2012. This is also paving the way towards the highest effective deficit since 2009.

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish

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Chile Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2016

By , , , ,

In Chile, we adjusted downwards our growth projection for 2017 due to materialisation of risks that moderate the slope of the recovery. Inflation will settle at 3% in 2H16 and will fluctuate below that level in the base scenario without changes in the central bank’s key interest rate.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | Labour aggregates, job search efforts and Google trends

By ,

New real-time indicators of job-seeking efforts from search statistics of Google trends, allows us to approach efficiently the short-term dynamics of labor aggregates, providing valuable information on the transition between participation and labor inactivity in the population.

Units:
Geographies:Chile Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | Fundamentals of the Chilean Economy

By , , , ,

The aim of this presentation goes beyond the short-run economic outlook with relevant information on different dimensions of the Chilean economy and society. It seeks to provide support to frequent questions from both foreign and domestic investors.

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in English

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Chile Economic Outlook. First quarter 2016

By , , , ,

We corrected downwards our GDP growth projections for 2016 and 2017 to 1.8% and 2.5% respectively. Meanwhile, lower both exchange-rate and food price pressures allow us to estimate a declining annual inflation rate for this year. In this scenario, we forecast that policy rates will have at most one more increase of 25bp closing this year at 3.75%.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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Chile | Although fiscal deficit closed at 2.2% in 2015, room for maneuver will narrow

By , , ,

Due to positive surprises in non-cyclical revenues (related to one-timers in both tax reform and anti-trust fines) and an under-execution in government investment, effective fiscal deficit reaches a 2.2% of GDP in 2015 while structural balance reaches a deficit at 0.3% of GDP, below of government projection in September 2015.

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish, English

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The evasive predictive ability of core inflation

Document Number 15/34

By , ,

We explore the ability of traditional core inflation –consumer prices excluding food and energy–to predict headline CPI annual inflation. We analyze a sample of OECD and non-OECD economies using monthly data from January 1994 to March 2015. Our results indicate that sizable predictability emerges for a small subset of countries.

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in English

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Presentation “Chile: Automobile Market Outlook 2015”

By , ,

Although automobile sales deteriorated this year, the market looks healthy in a structural view. In the medium term we expect local industry add to the international trend, with a increase in the number of hybrid cars. We forecast a decrease in automobile sales by 8.1% in 2016, with downward bias.

Available in Spanish

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Chile | Fiscal expenditures decelerated in October

By , ,

Government expenditures grew 2.7% YoY, but below last year’s print (+9.7% YoY), driven by a lower rate of growth in fiscal investment. Meanwhile, revenues came out higher than expected after growing +8.6% YoY. All in all, given the positive surprise in fiscal incomes we are raising our forecast for the fiscal deficit to 2.4% of GDP this year (from -2.9% previously).

Units:
Geographies:Chile

Available in Spanish

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