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Financial Inclusion in Paraguay. March 2017

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An inclusive financial system maximizes usage and access, while minimizing the barriers for financial inclusion (as a proxy of quality). The Multidimensional Index for Financial Inclusion (MIFI) computes the degree of inclusiveness of a financial system across economies and over time

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Digital Context: Paraguay

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Paraguay has room for improving in terms of the Digitization Index, particularly on affordability and content dimensions. Paraguay almost duplicates Internet use between 2011 and 2014, but it is still lower than other Latin American countries

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Presentation “Paraguay Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016″

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We expect GDP to grow by 2.9% next year. Growth will be supported by the start of infrastructure works and a gradual recovery in consumption

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Available in Spanish, English

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Paraguay Economic Outlook First Half 2016

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Growth of around 3.0% in 2016 and 2017. Domestic demand, due to infrastructure projects, will be the main driver of growth. Lower depreciation of the currency but with episodes of volatility. Inflation will continue to be contained around the mid-range of the target. Central Bank would keep its policy monetary rate. Main risks: more pronounced slowdown in Brazil and China.

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Available in Spanish, English

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Paraguay Economic Outlook. Second half 2015

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In a deteriorating international environment, the rate of expansion of the Paraguayan GDP has moderated in the past few months and we expect that it will expand 3.2% in 2015. For 2016, in a challenging context, we forecast a growth of 3.4% where domestic demand will be the main driver, so the economy will remain among the most dynamic in the region.

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Geographies:Paraguay

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Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2015

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LatAm growth will remain low in 2015 and will slowly pick up in 2016, though still below the region’s potential level. Unevenness will continue in the region, with Brazil in recession and the Pacific Alliance growing at around 3%.

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Presentation “Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2015″

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We are revising LatAm growth downwards to 0.6% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016. The weakness of confidence is hampering domestic demand, but regional growth will rise in 2016, spurred by a concerted public investment effort in the Andean countries and greater world growth. The Pacific Alliance will continue to grow at above the regional average.

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Extending access to the formal financial system: the banking correspondent business model

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New ways of understanding banking, technological improvements, and regulation yield new means of interaction between customers and banks through outsourcing agreements. This paper provides the first harmonised database with information on the number of banking correspondents by country, which helps in measuring access to the formal financial system.

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Presentation "Latin America Economic Outlook. First quarter 2015"

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World growth will continue to move upwards, albeit slowly and very unevenly. The fall in oil prices is positive for the world economy, but it has varying effects.Volatility in the region’s financial markets will continue. The Fed rate hikes will have a negative effect on capital flows into the region, which adds to lower commodity export prices.

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Latin America Economic Outlook. First quarter 2015

By , , , , , , , , , , ,

Growth in LatAm will nudge upwards, albeit slowly, held back by lower commodity prices. Activity in the region should rise from 0.8% in 2014 to 1.5% and 2.4% in 2015 and 2016, pulled up by greater growth worldwide and heavier public investment in the Andean countries. The Pacific Alliance will grow by 3.6% and 3.8% in 2015 and 2016.The central banks continue to show a looser bias given the cyclical weakness and could even disengage from the Fed rate hikes, apart from in Mexico. Such a move would adversely affect capital inflows to Latin America. The weaker commodity prices not only bode ill for fiscal and current account prospects in the region but will also have a potentially depressing impact on FDI in the primary export sector. All of these factors will exert pressure on LatAm exchange rates to depreciate in 2015 and 2016, yet on balance the limited currency mismatch in the private sector will mean that the exchange rate will cushion rather than spread external shocks.

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Crowdfunding in 360º: alternative financing for the digital era

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Financial crowdfunding can play an important role as a complement to traditional sources of financing, targeting business segments that are not covered by conventional formats. It can also help entrepreneurial ventures to get off the ground, boosting innovation and, with it, economic growth. On the other hand, in a context of scarce credit and economic crisis, it can become a key factor in alleviating funding needs, contributing to economic recovery while also providing high returns for savers. However, investing through crowdfunding can bring potentially high risks of solvency and liquidity, in a market where greater informality exacerbates the asymmetry of information between borrowers and lenders. Furthermore, the mediation carried out by platforms falls into the category of shadow banking meaning that, inasmuch as they are outside the traditional banking system, the regulation with which they must comply is much less onerous. Thus, there is a need to establish a balanced regulatory framework in order to enable this complementary source of funding to develop whilst simultaneously protecting retail investors and avoiding systemic risks.

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Paraguay Economic Outlook. Second Half 2014

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Growth so far this year has been below the levels expected, standing at 3.5% for the first half of 2014. Factors such as public spending being lower than originally budgeted for, the slowdown in the Brazilian economy and slower growth in the agricultural and energy sectors (after reaching record levels in 2013) have contributed to this slowdown in growth

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Geographies:Paraguay

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Latam Economic Outlook: Third Quarter 2014

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The significant moderation in household and business expectations, as well as the weakness in domestic demand indicators, led us to a downward revision of our growth estimates for first half of 2014, except in Colombia. That said, the slump in the region appears to be behind us, and growth should increase beginning in the third quarter. The acceleration in growth starting in the third quarter of this year should be driven by a rise in world growth and foreign demand, as well as by a recovery in investment. Thus, our forecasts suggest that growth in Latin America would slide from 2.5% in 2013 to 1.6% in 2014, recover to 2.5% in 2015, and gradually converge over the following years toward the region's potential, which we place at slightly above 3%. The momentum in the region will remain very heterogeneous, with the Pacific Alliance countries standing out above the regional average.

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Paraguay Economic Outlook

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Paraguay will grow 5.3% and 4.2% in 2014 and 2015. This forecast consideres a strong agricultural sector and further boost of investment, both private and public

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Geographies:Paraguay

Available in Spanish

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Financial Inclusion Economic Watch: The Financial Inclusion Law in Uruguay

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The purpose of this paper is to report on the economic environment in Uruguay at the time of the passing of the Financial Inclusion Law

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Uruguay Economic Outlook First Half 2014

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Following the positive surprise of 4.4% growth in 2013, Uruguayan GDP growth will slow to 3.2% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015 as investment will be lower

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Latam Economic Outlook, first quarter 2014

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Latam will grow 2.5% in 2014 and 2.6% in 2015 with increasing differentiation among countries. Pacific Alliance growth will be close to 4%, more than double the rate of Mercosur countries

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Latam: increasing differentiation

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Latam will grow 2.5% in 2014 and 2.6% in 2015 with increasing differentiation among countries. Pacific Alliance growth will be close to 4%, more than double the rate of Mercosur countries

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Fiscal Sustainability and Economic Growth in Bolivia

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The paper proposes and apply a macroeconometric methodology which allows dissentangling the role played by fiscal sustainability shocks in the Bolivian economic growth performance

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Uruguay Economic Outlook Second Half 2013

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We maintain our growth estimates at 3.7% and 3.9% for 2013 and 2014 despite the positive surprises in 1H13

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