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Colombia | GDP growth second quarter 2018

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In the second quarter the economy grew by 2.5% (adjusted for seasonality and business days), close to the 2.6% posted for the first quarter. Activity was stimulated by the hiring of professional and scientific services (7.6% annually), the public sector (4.8%) and agro (4.7%). Industry figures foreshadow stronger private consumption.

Available in Spanish

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Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Latin America will grow 1.3% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019, with considerable heterogeneity across countries. These forecasts are lower than the previous ones, mainly due to the revision of growth in Argentina and Brazil. This adjustment in the two countries could not be compensated by the upward revisions of growth in Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Paraguay.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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The economy is starting to settle into improved performance, with positive surprises. Political tension has reduced, business confidence has improved and private expenditure shows a good performance. As a result, we expect output to grow by 3.6% this year and 3.9% next, more than we forecast in our last report.

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Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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We expect and acceleration of GDP growth from 1.8% in 2017 to 2.6% in 2018 and 3.3% in 2019, driven mainly by private consumption. Low expected inflation, the adjustment in external accounts made by Colombia and the stability in the exchange rate will allow the Central Bank to maintain its reference rate in an accommodative stance for a prolonged time.

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Available in Spanish, English

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Brazil Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Growth prospects deteriorate due to the financial volatility, the negative effects of exchange rate depreciation, doubts about whether the next government will face fiscal problems and the consequences of the recent truckers’ strike, among other factors. Thus the recovery process will be more gradual than expected

Available in Spanish, English

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Uruguay Economic Outlook. First half 2018

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Uruguay: growth slows, but investment expected to pick up. Downward revision of growth in Uruguay due to the effect of the drought on the agricultural and livestock sector and hydroelectric generation. Private consumption slows due to slacker pace of increase in real wages.

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Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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Latin America maintains its recovery amidst external turbulence. Growth will increase from 1.2% in 2017, to 1.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. The main external risks centre on protectionism and on China. On the domestic front, political noise and the possible delay in public and private investment is an upside risk in a number of countries.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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We forsee growth of 3.2% in 2018 and 3.5% for next year. The forecasts take into account a favourable international environment for Peru. On the domestic front we are assuming a calmer political scenario, a fiscal stimulus in 2018 and a commencement of the deficit reduction by the government next year.

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Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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GDP growth will accelerate, reaching a rate of 2.0% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019, driven by private spending. Inflation will converge to the 3.0% target and will allow the Central Bank to reduce its rate to 4.0% in the second quarter of this year. The exchange rate will depreciate in the second half of 2018.

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Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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GDP grew 1.0% in 2017 and should accelerate gradually going forward. We maintain our GDP growth forecasts of 2.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. Political and fiscal developments will shape the future economic performance; the sustainability of the economic recovery requires the adoption of structural measures to bring the fiscal deterioration to an end.

Available in Spanish, English

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Central Bank Digital Currencies in LatAm

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We identified the most relevant factors for the implementation of a CBDC in LatAm, under different designs. We concluded that the region could benefit more from the adoption of a CBDC than developed countries. However, the existence of costs associated with implementation casts uncertainty on where it will be adopted first.

Available in English

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Digital Economy Outlook. First quarter 2018

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In this issue we focus on: The framework for digital regulation in Latin America: How to balance innovation and safety?; Decentralized Applications (DApps): The building blocks of the future Internet; Instant payments; The cloud vs. mainframe conundrum; Enhancing Economic Empowerment through Financial Inclusion.

Available in Spanish, English

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Assessing Corruption with Big Data

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We build a real-time, high-frequency Corruption Perception Index based on Google Trends data. It shows that the worldwide perception of corruption has been increasing since 2009, with significant heterogeneity across countries. Focusing in the case of Brazil, we show that a higher perception of corruption reduces both government approval ratings and confidence indexes.

Available in Spanish, English

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Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America

Document Number 18/02

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We characterize consumer confidence cycle across LatAm using Markov-switching models. Our findings show that a core group of countries shares a statistical common ground for both confidence’s boom and bust cycle synchronisation. Notably, Argentina and Chile tend to lead consumer mood shifts, playing a leading role in propagating consumer confidence shocks throughout LatAm.

Available in English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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The economy will grow 3.3% in each of the next 2 years driven by investment and increased external demand, particularly from Brazil and China. Inflation will continue to fall slowly but convergence to the goals will remain a challenge for the Central Bank. It is key to monitor the evolution of the twin deficits (fiscal and external).

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Available in Spanish, English

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