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Argentina Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

By , , , , ,

The currency crisis of 2018 derailed both the gradual fiscal approach and the inflation targets, and drastically changed the 2019 outlook. The key questions are whether there be a turnaround in activity and inflation, and who the next President will be.

Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Available in English

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Infographic Peru Promoting financial development in the context of Middle-Income Trap

By , , , ,

Between 2011 and 2017, the economy has grown on average 4.8% annually, while the LAC average is 1.7%

Available in English

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Infographic Mexico Promoting financial development in the context of Middle-Income Trap

By , , , ,

Between 2011 and 2017, the economy has grown on average 2.6% annually, while the LAC average is 1.7%

Available in English

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Available in English

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Policy priorities to promote financial development in the context of Middle Income Trap

By , , , ,

This paper analyses the development of financial markets in Argentina, Colombia, Mexico and Peru in the context of the middle-income trap. This is particularly relevant for these economies, since well-developed and properly-functioning financial markets are fundamental to achieve high income status on a sustainable basis.

Available in English

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Argentina | Financing the infrastructure gap

By , ,

Budgetary constraints in the public sector and the poor development of the financial system make it convenient to involve the private sector in investment in infrastructure. The regulatory framework mitigates risks but does not completely isolate the effects of country risk volatility, knowledge about past corruption and lack of confidence in management.

Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

The extended currency crisis led to a renegotiation of the agreement with the IMF which increased funding for the aid package to Argentina. The new, more restrictive monetary program is expected to decelerate inflation and stabilize financial variables. In this more adverse scenario we estimate GDP will fall by 2.4% in 2018 and 0.3% in 2019.

Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina | Real Estate and Construction Outlook 2018

By , ,

Exchange rates over the past few years have had a positive impact on the real estate sector, yet recent currency upheaval has given rise to a considerable deterioration in accessibility conditions. Even so, the slowdown should prove to be only fleeting and there is not likely to be any huge increase in the supply of properties that might prompt a downward price correction.

Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

The economy continues to grow but at a slower pace due to the impact of a severe drought that affects the central agricultural area at the beginning of 2018. Inflation accelerates more than expected in the first four months of the year, but will be reduced in the second half due to: i) exchange stability and ii) wage agreements in line with the 15% target.

Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

By , , , ,

The economy will grow 3.3% in each of the next 2 years driven by investment and increased external demand, particularly from Brazil and China. Inflation will continue to fall slowly but convergence to the goals will remain a challenge for the Central Bank. It is key to monitor the evolution of the twin deficits (fiscal and external).

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

Growth is accelerating and becoming more widespread, in line with our 2.8% forecast for 2017. Inflation is slowing but less than required to meet the targets of the Central Bank, which will maintain its tight stance on monetary policy. A positive result in the parliamentary elections will enable the government to make faster progress in the reform agenda

Available in Spanish, English

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Exposure of international banks to Latin America

By ,

In the context of a reduction in global cross-border funds, this report explores the recent evolution of international banks’ exposures to Latin America using BIS statistics. Latin America is one of the few regions in the world where the exposure of international banks continued to increase as result of the strong presence of international banks with local operations.

Available in Spanish

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

The Argentine economy entered its third consecutive quarter of recovery. Growth forecasts of 2.8% for 2017 and 3% for 2018. Gradually decreasing trend in core inflation will be maintained in the coming months. Inflation as measured by INDEC's GBA CPI will reach 19.5% y/y at the end of 2017, still above the BCRA’s target of 12-17% YoY

Available in Spanish, English

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