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Policy priorities to promote financial development in the context of Middle Income Trap

By , , , ,

This paper analyses the development of financial markets in Argentina, Colombia, Mexico and Peru in the context of the middle-income trap. This is particularly relevant for these economies, since well-developed and properly-functioning financial markets are fundamental to achieve high income status on a sustainable basis.

Available in English

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Argentina | Financing the infrastructure gap

By , ,

Budgetary constraints in the public sector and the poor development of the financial system make it convenient to involve the private sector in investment in infrastructure. The regulatory framework mitigates risks but does not completely isolate the effects of country risk volatility, knowledge about past corruption and lack of confidence in management.

Units:
Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

The extended currency crisis led to a renegotiation of the agreement with the IMF which increased funding for the aid package to Argentina. The new, more restrictive monetary program is expected to decelerate inflation and stabilize financial variables. In this more adverse scenario we estimate GDP will fall by 2.4% in 2018 and 0.3% in 2019.

Units:
Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina | Real Estate and Construction Outlook 2018

By , ,

Exchange rates over the past few years have had a positive impact on the real estate sector, yet recent currency upheaval has given rise to a considerable deterioration in accessibility conditions. Even so, the slowdown should prove to be only fleeting and there is not likely to be any huge increase in the supply of properties that might prompt a downward price correction.

Units:
Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

With no access to external financing, extreme FX turbulence led Argentina to seek an agreement with the IMF which stepped up the pace of fiscal consolidation. FX uncertainty, higher inflation and tighter economic policies will take a toll on the economy in 2Q and 3Q but we expect growth to bounce back in 4Q to average 0.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019.

Units:
Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

The economy continues to grow but at a slower pace due to the impact of a severe drought that affects the central agricultural area at the beginning of 2018. Inflation accelerates more than expected in the first four months of the year, but will be reduced in the second half due to: i) exchange stability and ii) wage agreements in line with the 15% target.

Units:
Geographies:Argentina

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

By , , , ,

The economy will grow 3.3% in each of the next 2 years driven by investment and increased external demand, particularly from Brazil and China. Inflation will continue to fall slowly but convergence to the goals will remain a challenge for the Central Bank. It is key to monitor the evolution of the twin deficits (fiscal and external).

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Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

Growth is accelerating and becoming more widespread, in line with our 2.8% forecast for 2017. Inflation is slowing but less than required to meet the targets of the Central Bank, which will maintain its tight stance on monetary policy. A positive result in the parliamentary elections will enable the government to make faster progress in the reform agenda

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Available in Spanish, English

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Exposure of international banks to Latin America

By ,

In the context of a reduction in global cross-border funds, this report explores the recent evolution of international banks’ exposures to Latin America using BIS statistics. Latin America is one of the few regions in the world where the exposure of international banks continued to increase as result of the strong presence of international banks with local operations.

Available in Spanish

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

The Argentine economy entered its third consecutive quarter of recovery. Growth forecasts of 2.8% for 2017 and 3% for 2018. Gradually decreasing trend in core inflation will be maintained in the coming months. Inflation as measured by INDEC's GBA CPI will reach 19.5% y/y at the end of 2017, still above the BCRA’s target of 12-17% YoY

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Available in Spanish, English

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Renewables: The answer is blowin’ in the wind

By , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The prevalence of fossil fuels in the production of electricity is being challenged by the rapid expansion of renewable sources such as wind and solar. Around the world, wind energy capacity has increased fivefold since 2007, reaching 487GW in 2016

Available in Spanish, English

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An Index of Regulatory Practices for Financial Inclusion in Latin America

Document Number 17/15

By ,

The index assesses and compares the quality of regulations that influence financial inclusion in 8 Latin American countries. It defines three categories of regulatory practices: the enablers, which determine the overall quality of the financial environment; the promoters, which deal with specific market frictions; and the preventers which create distortions and barriers.

Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

The economy continued to grow in 1Q17 in line with our forecast of 2.8% Y/Y. Inflation is moving away from the BCRA target and will reach 19.5% (INDEC) Y/Y in December, driven by tariffs and core inflation that does not yield. The restrictive monetary and accommodative fiscal policy mix strengthens the peso, but we expect a greater pace of depreciation in 2H17

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Available in Spanish, English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

By , , , , ,

The economy began to recover in 4Q16 and will grow 2.8% in 2017 driven by investment. The downward stickiness of core inflation and the increase in tariffs will keep inflation at 20.8% YoY in 2017, and the CB in a tight stance. 2017 financial needs at USD 40 billion to be covered by debt issues will result in capital inflows and tend to appreciate the real exchange rate

Units:

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Inclusion in Argentina

By ,

An overall view. Argentina step by step. Regulation for financial inclusion.

Available in Spanish, English

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