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Digital Economy Outlook. September 2017

By , , , ,

In this issue we will focus on: Banks and new digital players: is there a level playing field?; The paradox of the digital consumer: more demanding but less aware of his rights; PSD2 implementation: transposition deadline draws closer; Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC): challenging the financial system as we know it and; Financial innovation policies across the EU

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | Further Rise in Inflation as Expected

By , , ,

Consumer prices rose by 1.3% in line with the market consensus, but lower than our expectations (1.6%) in April. Thus, annual inflation rose further to 11.9% from 11.3%. The reason behind this month’s increase was almost entirely due to the surge in food prices. We estimate that inflation will fall into single digits in the last two months and end the year at 9%.

Available in English

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Digital Economy Outlook. May 2016

By , , , ,

In this issue we focus on: European General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR); Tax challenges for the digital economy; The European Network and Information Security Directive (part 2 of 2); e-commerce in Spain: generational approach; Marketing in the digital era: adapting to the new consumer.

Available in Spanish, English

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Consumption Outlook. Second half 2015

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Private consumption is spearheading the recovery of Spain’s economy. Prospects are encouraging: household spending will grow at around a cumulative 6%. Better borrowing conditions are underpinning increased demand for durable goods. Dwindling financial fragmentation and a falling NPL ratio should help bring down interest rates on consumer credit.

Available in Spanish

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Spain Consumption Outlook. First half 2015

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Better fundamentals are underpinning more lively private consumption. The increase in new lending business is facilitating vigorous growth in spending on consumer durables. Inequality in the distribution of consumption diminished during the crisis, in contrast to the increase in income inequality. The drivers of online shopping differ among products

Available in Spanish

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Colombia | Automotive Outlook 2015.

By , , , , , ,

Car sales are expected to slow down to 290,000 and 305,000 units in 2015 and 2016, respectively, with a greater share of local assembled vehicles of total sales. The potential for growth in the sector in the medium term remains unchanged. We forecast an increase in the price of vehicles because of the exchange rate depreciation.

Available in Spanish, English

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Spain Consumption Outlook. Second half 2014

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Private consumption growth continues to grow. The improvement in disposable income, in financial wealth and in financing will support increased household expenditure. The recent momentum in the demand for durable goods relies on their sensitivity to changes in income and on the fact that the majority of them are complementary goods. E-commerce in Spain is still limited. Training, income levels, internet banking and in-company digitalisation are key.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation "Spain Consumption Outlook. Second half 2014"

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The global economy is growing, but more slowly than anticipated. Europe faces major challenges. The recovery in Spain continues at the pace expected, despite the stagnation in Europe. Reforms are still needed. Private consumption retains its momentum thanks to better fundamentals, more lending, less uncertainty and the prolongation of the PIVE programme but the margin for improvement is running out: households are still leveraged, the savings rate is at rock bottom and the stimuli are transitory. The momentum of spending on durables relies on their greater income elasticity and on the fact that most consumer items are complementary goods. E-commerce is still used relatively little in Spain. IT literacy, income level, internet banking use and corporate digitalisation are all key.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation "Spain Consumption Outlook. First Half 2014"

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• Private consumption is undoubtedly recovering, particularly durable goods. • Increased expenditure is due to better fundamentals, more financing, less uncertainty and temporary stimuli, such as the PIVE programme (incentives to buy energy-efficient cars). • Substituting nationally-produced products for imported goods, as a result of changing preferences, accounts for 60% of the fall in consumption imports during the crisis. • Households with lower incomes are bearing higher inflation because their consumption is concentrated on products whose prices are more rigid to the downside.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Consumption Outlook. First Half 2014

By

• Private consumption is undoubtedly recovering, particularly durable goods. • Increased expenditure is due to better fundamentals, more financing, less uncertainty and temporary stimuli, such as the PIVE programme (incentives to buy energy-efficient cars). • Substituting nationally-produced products for imported goods, as a result of changing preferences, accounts for 60% of the fall in consumption imports during the crisis. • Households with lower incomes are bearing higher inflation because their consumption is concentrated on products whose prices are more rigid to the downside.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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U.S. Economic Watch. State Activity Indexes. April 2014

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State output increased in 43 states and remained unchanged in 7 states. In addition, the pace of expansion improved in 32 states, slowed in 13 and was unchanged in 5

Available in English

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China Banking Watch: China’s financial liberalization – new challenges and opportunities

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Financial reform has broadly maintained its momentum since 2012, when a new round of reforms started. The new leadership needs to circumvent the resistance to reform from the part of vested interest.

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BBVA EAGLEs Economic Watch: Tackling excessive inequality as a critical ingredient for sustainable development in the emerging world

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Building a welfare system and addressing fiscal issues need a coordinated reform momentum throughout income transition

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India Economic Watch : India’s overseas direct investments – Notable growth, but yet to achieve scale

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India’s overseas direct investments – Notable growth, but yet to achieve scale

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U.S. Economic Watch. The Future of Financing America’s Homes

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An Expanded Private Sector Role Can Reduce Systemic Risk

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