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Country Risk Report. Fourth Quarter 2017

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Global risk aversion stabilizes at historically low levels. Despite recent geopolitical tensions, all indicators remain virtually unchanged. Continued decline in sovereign CDS over the past year has led many countries to reach new historical lows

Available in Spanish, English

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Deleveraging after the burst of a credit-bubble

By , ,

We present the results of an empirical exercise in which we seek to explain the deleveraging process that follows the burst of a credit bubble following a systemic banking crisis. We have built up two new databases and have estimated a SUR regression model to jointly explain and predict how strong and how fast private leverage falls after the burst of a credit-bubble.

Available in English

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Country Risk Report. Third Quarter 2017

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Financial markets’ risk-on mood tightens sovereign spreads beyond fundamentals, while financial disequilibria turn on some warning signals in some Advanced Economies

Available in Spanish, English

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Country Risk Report. Second Quarter 2017

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Financial tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and sovereign markets spreads have been decreasing for over a year, reaching lows not seen since the spring of 2014 or 2007. Most of the large sovereign spread’s increases seen during the turmoil in 2015 and 2016 in EMs has vanished

Available in English

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Country Risk Report. First Quarter 2017

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Yet another quarter in which Financial Tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and Sovereign CDS have all been easing significantly across the board. The overall decrease in CDS spreads reduced downgrade pressures and increased upgrade ones for most countries. The decline in downgrade pressure was specially noticeable in LatAm , but it was also felt in the rest of EMs.

Available in Spanish, English

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Country Risk Report. Fourth Quarter 2016

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Turkey was downgraded by S&P and Moody’s. Hungary and Korea were upgraded by S&P. Financial tensions, Global Risk Aversion and sovereign CDS have all been trending downwards since the turmoil at the beginning of the year. China still faces the largest downgrade pressure from the markets, that has significantly risen for Portugal.

Available in Spanish, English

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The economic consequences of Brexit

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The UK has decided to exit the European Union in a referendum with a 52%-48% margin, and a participation rate of 72%. Prime Minister (PM) Cameron has resigned and will remain in charge until October, when the Conservative Party will choose its next leader. This note and the attached presentation look at the economic consequences of Brexit.

Available in English

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Country Risk Report. Second Quarter 2016

By , , ,

Argentina was upgraded by the three agencies after its return to the bond markets. Ireland was upgraded by Moody’s. Fitch downgraded Brazil and upgraded Hungary. The market pressure (downgrades/upgrades) has stabilized after a calmed quarter. Turkey, Chile, Colombia, China and Malaysia still on the spotlight.

Available in Spanish, English

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The current account balance and the oil price shock

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The slump in oil and other commodity prices since mid-2014 is having an important impact on the current account balances (CAB) across the World. While the cyclical effects are already affecting the short-term financing needs of oil exporters in particular, the structural or permanent effects of the lower oil prices will affect countries’ structural balances as well.

Available in English

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Country Risk Report First Quarter 2016

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Financial tensions in Emerging Markets (EMs) soared back to August levels driven by falling commodity prices and stock market turmoil in China, but receded somewhat in February, when the focus changed to the DMs’ banking sector, and after the recent oil price recovery.

Available in Spanish, English

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Country Risk Report Fourth Quarter 2015

By , , ,

Financial tensions are receding across the board as tensions in China moderate and as the Fed’s lift-off effect seems to be fully priced-in. Global risk aversion (VIX) has dropped sharply relaxing the Emerging Markets (EMs) risk-off mood.

Available in Spanish, English

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Country Risk Report. Third Quarter 2015

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Rising concerns on China add to the expected reaction to a FED’s tightening. Thus, global drivers are behind the volatile and gloomy quarter in EMs equities, FX rates and commodities.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. Negotiates Historic Deal with Iran

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The White House is committed to implementing the deal despite fierce opposition. Iran can increase oil production and exports, resulting in downward pressures on oil prices. However, impact is dependent on Iran's compliance and volatile dynamics in the region.

Available in Spanish, English

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Country Risk Report. Second Quarter 2015

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Calmer situation in financial markets during the quarter. Some stress in exchange and interest rates is accumulating. Geopolitical risks are still alive even though markets are ignoring them. Portfolio Flows trending down below long-run levels. Re-allocation continues but differentiated and mild.

Available in Spanish, English

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Country Risk Report. First quarter 2015

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Financial tensions are building up in several regions and volatility is on the rise in different markets (particularly in FX). Geopolitical risks are still alive even though markets are ignoring them. Portfolio flows will continue to digest the Fed’s wording probably until the path of rate increases settles in. The ECB's puts limits Greece's spill-overs.

Available in Spanish

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