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Reflection paper on the future of the Eurozone

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The European Commission has published a reflection paper on the future of the euro area, the proposals in two steps (up to 2019 and to 2025) on key issues such as banking and capital markets union, centralization of supervision in markets and insurances, safe bonds, regulation of sovereign debt on bank balances, fiscal stabilization and a European Treasury.

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Flows & Assets Report: Flows to EM will continue to grow but at a lower pace. 3Q2016

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Strong recovery of capital inflows to EM in 3Q for the second quarter in a row driven by the “search of yield” in global portfolios (reallocation process). Although monetary conditions will remain supportive, we expect a slowdown of inflows in next quarters as financial volatility is expected to rebound somewhat from very low levels

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Rising Libor is due to repricing and not distress

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Libor rate rise pushed by regulation driven structural changes in the U.S. money market. The spill-over effects in other regions have not been huge. However, hereinafter, international markets have to get used to more expensive financing in USD, which poses an additional risk for bank´s profitability in the current context of ultra-low interest rates

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ECB kept monetary policy stance unchanged

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The ECB kept rates unchanged and reaffirmed the plan to run the APP to March 2017 or beyond if needed. The GC did not discuss any measures (including an extension of the APP). The GC tasked the relevant committees to evaluate the options that ensure a smooth implementation of its purchase programme. The Staff barely changed its projections over the forecast horizon

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Further action likely in September

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The ECB has left the monetary policy stance unchanged. The ECB needs more time to reassess the degree of policy accommodation. Unrelated to monetary policy, Draghi opens the possibility of a “public backstop” for NPL’s.

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The economic consequences of Brexit

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The UK has decided to exit the European Union in a referendum with a 52%-48% margin, and a participation rate of 72%. Prime Minister (PM) Cameron has resigned and will remain in charge until October, when the Conservative Party will choose its next leader. This note and the attached presentation look at the economic consequences of Brexit.

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Wait-and-see stance

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As expected, at today’s monetary policy meeting there were no changes in the ECB´s monetary policy stance, as the central bank left the key policy rate unchanged at 0.0% and the deposit rate at -0.4%. The ECB’s Staff macroeconomic projections barely changed over the forecast horizon. The focus is on the implementation of the measures announced in March

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Flows & Assets Report: Flow reallocation back to EM. Second Quarter 2016

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Global risk aversion receded in Q1 2016 in a context of still volatile markets. The return of risk appetite was attributable to stabilization signs in China, the rebound in oil prices and the continued support of Developed Markets' central banks.

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ECB Minutes: 21 April meeting

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The minutes confirmed that the GC was unanimous in its commitment to deliver on its mandate. The GC agreed that there was no need to consider any change in its current monetary policy stance. The ECB strongly reiterated the need for other policy areas to contribute to euro area economic recovery

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ECB keeps stance unchanged

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Rates were kept unchanged and the tone remained dovish. No hints of any policy change in the near term. The ECB unveiled further details of the CSPP.

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ECB Minutes | 10 March meeting

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A large majority of voting members supported the proposed policy package, but support for the various components of the package was varied. The ECB discussed introducing a negative-rate exemption, but finally this was rejected as "too complex." The minutes revealed that members do not rule out the possibility of further cuts if warranted by the outlook for price stability

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Global prominence of China’s financial markets

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In recent months, financial turmoil in China has significantly hurt global financial markets. Yet the channel has been commercial rather than purely financial: turmoil in China has “signaled” risks to China’s economic outlook rather than “caused” global financial imbalances. That said, actual financial linkages are set to grow as China´s markets are liberalized.

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Further easing measures favor unconventional measures over rate cuts

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The ECB cut rates to record lows, increased the size -and widened the scope - of its APP and introduced a new round of (attractive) TLTROs. The Staff revised its inflation projections significantly downwards, as expected. The ECB remains vigilant and ready to act if necessary, favoring further “unconventional measures” over (not-excluded) additional rate cuts.

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Flows & Assets Report: The Big Emerging Markets Short. First Quarter 2016

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Global growth concerns led by China’s policy shifts and inability to sooth investor concerns heightened risk off-mood particularly by yearend. Unlike previous episodes, the trigger was not in the Fed policy but China, EM vulnerabilities and potential impact of EM & DM.

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ECB Minutes: 21 January meeting

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The minutes confirm that the central bank will review and possibly reconsider its monetary policy stance at the March monetary policy meeting. There was broad agreement with the GC that downside risks have increased since the start of the year.

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Transmission of monetary policy in the euro zone, monitoring via a synthetic indicator

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The transmission of monetary policy is a key element which the ECB monitors in order to assess how the monetary policies it has set in motion are being transferred to the real economy. The smooth functioning of this mechanism is a necessary condition for achieving the ECB's ultimate objective of price stability.

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So far, a tale of macro stability but still moderate growth: what is the outlook?

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A structural outlook of the Mexican economy: a journey trough strength and weaknesses. Recent developments: growth, markets, vulnerabilities. Second generation of economic reforms.

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The ECB hints at further easing in March

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The ECB will “review and possibly reconsider” its monetary policy stance at next meeting. The Governing Council (GC) was unanimous in today´s line of communication. The central bank has recognised that downside risks have increased to both inflation and economic growth since the December meeting.

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ECB Minutes: 3 December meeting

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There was wide agreement among participants that additional monetary measures were warranted, although some members did not see sufficient evidence in support of recalibration of monetary policy at that meeting. There was discussion of the possibility of further measures and “a reassessment could be made in future."

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Financial conditions in the euro area, monitoring based on a synthetic indicator

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Financial conditions in the euro area are a key element which the ECB monitors to gauge how monetary policy set in train is affecting market conditions and its transmission to the real economy. It is vital for the ECB to ensure that particularly loose financial conditions are maintained to make certain that the euro area recovery culminates without any bumps along the way

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